Monmouth Park All Stakes Pick 4 Strategy for Saturday, July 19

It’s Haskell Day at Monmouth Park, where top 3-year-old Journalism makes his highly anticipated return to the races. The $400,000 guaranteed all-stakes Pick 4 features the G3 Molly Pitcher, the G2 United Nations, and the $1 million G1 Haskell. Here's how I’m structuring my ticket for the sequence:

Race 9: Wolf Hill Stakes

The opening leg of the $400,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 is the Wolf Hill Stakes, a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint. I’m taking a shot right away with my top choice: #1 Buccherino, trained by Alfredo Velazquez. He comes in off a tough neck loss in the Alapocas Run Stakes at Delaware Park last month. He was really game in that effort, dueling up front, putting away another speed horse, and just getting nailed at the wire by Full Moon Madness, who had a perfect trip. Buccherino earned a 97 Beyer in that race, the highest last-out figure in the field. The big question is how he’ll handle the turf, as this is his first start on the surface. If he takes to it, he’s a major player, especially with Hall of Famer John Velazquez in the saddle.

Second pick is the South African-bred #6 Isivunguvungu, trained by Graham Motion with Samuel Marin aboard. The three-month layoff is a concern, as he exits a tenth-place finish in a G1 at Meydan. But this is class relief, and he has been competitive in all three U.S. starts, including the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. He also beat Nothing Better in his U.S. debut last fall, a rival he’ll meet again here.

Third selection is the consistent #7 Nothing Better, who is listed at 3-1. With Irad Ortiz Jr. taking the call, don’t be surprised if the 8-year-old son of Munnings goes off favored. Aside from a poor showing last out, he had five straight 90+ Beyers, with two wins and three runner-up finishes. The rider switch only adds to his chances.

Top Choice: #1 Buccherino
Use: #6 Isivunguvungu, #7 Nothing Better

Race 10: G3 Molly Pitcher Stakes

My top choice is #3 Randomized for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat. She was disappointing last out in the Ogden Phipps, but I’m tossing that race—she clearly didn’t care for the off track. She’s beaten classy fillies like Idiomatic and Raging Sea in the past, and she should be able to control things up front here. The Brown-Prat combo speaks for itself, and on a speed-favoring track like Monmouth, she’s well-positioned.

Next is #5 Dorth Vader. Unlike Randomized, she thrived in the slop last time, winning the Ogden Phipps by over four lengths. Before that, she ran a solid fourth in the G1 La Troienne at Churchill. She projects to sit just off Randomized early, and if she’s finally finding consistency, she’s dangerous.

Top Choice: #3 Randomized
Use: #5 Dorth Vader

Race 11: G2 United Nations Stakes

This Grade 2 turf route features last year’s winner and several familiar contenders. Since I went light in the earlier legs and plan to single the Haskell, I’m spreading here and taking a few price shots.

The likely favorite and my top choice is #3 Redistricting, who dominated the Monmouth Stakes last out with a 102 Beyer. It was a front-running win over this same course, though against a weaker group. Prat stays aboard, which is a good sign. He’ll face more pace pressure here, especially from Get Smokin, but he’s talented and should build on that last effort.

Second choice is #10 Get Smokin, who won this race last year. He exits a third in the Eclipse—same setup as last year—and is listed at 8-1. With all the high-profile names in here, he might be overlooked, but he’ll be involved early and is dangerous if the turf favors speed.

Third pick is #9 Major Dude, representing Pletcher, Johnny Velazquez, and Spendthrift Farm. At 15-1, he’s a value play. Irad opts for Pletcher’s other horse, Grand Sonata, but Major Dude is 2-for-3 with Johnny V and owns two 97 Beyers this year. Distance is a question, but he’s worth including at the price.

Next is #4 Limited Liability for Shug McGaughey and Dettori. He ran well last out at in the G2 Elkhorn at Keeneland, finishing behind Utah Beach, who came back to win with a 100 Beyer. He was fourth in this race last year and should get a favorable inside stalking trip.

Fifth and final inclusion is #5 Grand Sonata. Irad gets back on board, and I’m tossing the last race over an off track in the G3 Belmont Gold Cup. On firm turf today, he’s dangerous—especially considering his narrow loss in the G2 Mac Diarmida at this same distance.

Top Choice: #3 Redistricting
Use: #10 Get Smokin, #9 Major Dude, #4 Limited Liability, #5 Grand Sonata

Race 12: G1 Haskell Stakes

The sequence wraps up with the $1 million Haskell Stakes, a "Win and You're In" for the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar. I thought about getting clever and making a case for someone else, but in the end, I chalked out and went with the heavy favorite: #2 Journalism.

He’s listed at 4/5, but we’ll probably see closer to 2/5 at post time based on the amount of money he’s going to attract. He’s clearly the best in this field and, aside from Sovereignty, the standout of this 3-year-old crop. There should be some pace for him to sit off of early, and if his recent works translate to race day, I don’t see anyone touching him.

Top Choice: #2 Journalism

The Ticket

$0.50 Pick 4 (Races 9-12):

1,6,7 / 3,5 / 3,4,5,9,10 / 2 = $15

If you feel so inclined, and since the total cost is on the lower side, feel free to boost the base wager. For example, a $3 base would bring this ticket to a total of $90. As always, please play responsibly.