Rhetorical faces toughest test yet in Breeders' Cup Mile
When it comes to the Breeders’ Cup Mile, and generally all turf racing, Europe reigns supreme. Of the last five editions of the Mile, More Than Looks’s victory last year is the only one by an American-based horse. Trainer Charlie Appleby won three in a row from 2021-2023 and Aidan O’Brien won in 2020. This year may be a little different, as Rhetorical, a New York-bred trained by Will Walden, hasn’t taken all the hype leading up to the race.
Obviously Europe is coming with a strong contingent but Rhetorical stepped out of the New York-bred ranks last out to win the Grade 1 Turf Mile at Keeneland. The win, which was his fifth in six career starts, proved Rhetorical is more than a New York-bred stakes winner. Though his victory in the Turf Mile was relatively easy, Walden had concerns.
“There were some doubts about whether the horse could jump up,” Walden told Keeneland publicity. “We didn’t know. But he’d been training awfully good and giving us all the signs that we wanted to see going forward. Irad (Ortiz Jr.) came into the office this morning and we talked about the race. He rode it to perfection. He’s such a clutch rider and makes the right decisions in those split-second decisions. Just happy for everybody involved.”
Now, Rhetorical, who will break from post 11 under Irad Ortiz Jr. with morning-line odds of 5-1, will face his stiffest test yet, though his American counterparts could be his toughest competition.
Formidable Man and Johannes are two California-based horses that may be a cut below but their Del Mar affinity is worth an upgrade. Johannes, trained by Tim Yakteen, was second by less than a length in this race last year and has really only run one bad race in the last two years - a ninth-place finish in the Fourstardave off a lengthy layoff. Formidable Man, trained by Michael McCarthy, is a little light on speed figures but is 6 for 6 on the Del Mar turf. Johannes, 1 for 2 at Del Mar, is 5 for 7 at a mile on turf, while Formidable Man is 4 for 7. Umberto Rispoli rides Johannes from post 7 with odds of 8-1, while John Velazquez rides 10-1 Formidable Man from post 8. Both need a step forward but a certain in with a shot.
Program Trading was second in the Turf Mile for Chad Brown in what was his first start at a mile. A proven Grade 1 winner, Program Trading may be better suited at a mile and he has a victory over the track, having won the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby last year. Flavien Prat rides from post 5 with odds of 10-1.
A different foreign runner may get the jump on the Americans and Europeans, as Japan is sending Argine for this year. Argine, trained by Mitsumasa Nakauchida, is a winner of 7 of 14 starts, with two of those coming at a mile on turf. In her last seven starts, she has either won or finished less than a length off the winner. Two starts back, she finished a half-length short to Ascoli Piceno in the Grade 1 Victoria Mile in Tokyo. Her last out victory in a Grade 3 at a 1 1/8 miles should make her sharper for this cutback and she should be able to show off her great turn of foot. Frankie Dettori, who’s set to retire after the Breeders’ Cup, rides from post 9.
The European contingent is led by Notable Speech, who has North American experience, and experience in this race, coming up three-quarters of a length short in third last year. Last out, the 4-year-old came with a solid run to win the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile over an average field. That was his first victory since July of last year. With morning-line odds of 5-2, Notable Speech is the favorite and will break from post 2 with regular rider William Buick aboard for trainer Charlie Appleby.
Sahlan is riding a two-race win streak, having won the Group 1 Prix dui Moulin Longchamp last out for trainer Francis-Henri Graffard. He’s been butting heads with some tough customers in France and firm ground should suit him. Mickael Barzalona will be aboard the 3-year-old from post 3.
The Lion In Winter, a 3-year-old trained by Aidan O’Brien, has just two wins to his record, coming in his first two career starts. The Lion In Winter has placed in three Group 1 races but is still searching for a breakthrough win. Christophe Soumillon rides from post 4.
Jonquil, trained by Andrew Balding, was fourth in the Turf Mile with an incredibly wide trip from the far outside post. While he doesn’t possess a signature win, his best races have come over firm ground. Colin Keane will be aboard from post 10.
Qirat earned a spot in this race with a massive upset in the Group 1 Sussex at Royal Ascot at odds of 150-1. He hasn’t hit the board in two starts since and Rossa Ryan will ride from post 13.
Two other foreigners in the field include Group 1-winning Chilean-bred Gran Oriente and South African-bred One Stripe, who was fifth in the Woodbine Mile. Gas Me Up, third in that race, completes the field.
The Mile goes as the 10th race with a post time of 7:05 p.m. Eastern.
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An avid horse racing fan and bettor, Michael Smith has developed a career in horse racing media as an editor and writer. A regular at Saratoga Race Course, Michael mainly covers New York racing but follows various other racing across the country and world.