Saratoga Selections for Saturday, July 26

Top Picks and Value Plays for Saturday's 12 Race Program

Junior Alvarado and trainer Bill Mott and a representative from the ownership group of Godolphin hold up the Belmont Stakes trophy. Sovereignty makes his return Saturday in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Here are some of my top plays for Saturday’s card at The Spa, highlighted by the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes featuring top 3-year-old Sovereignty.

Race 1: 6F, $40,000 Claiming, Dirt
Top Pick: #4 Otto The Conqueror. Drops out of a Grade 3 race, so he gets major class relief and cuts back in distance. I like #1 Gun It and #2 Loco Abarrio underneath.
The Bet: $5 Trifecta 4 / 1,2 / 1,2 = $10

Update: #1 Gun It has scratched. Replace with #5 Friar Laurence
Revised Bet: $5 Trifecta 4 / 2,5 / 2,5 = $10

Race 2: 6F, MSW, Dirt
Top Pick: #6 Further Ado for Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. By Gun Runner, who hits at 19% with first-time starters. Irad and Cox don’t team up often, but when they do, they’re winning at a 20% clip and hitting the board 54% of the time.
The Bet: $20 to Win at 5/2 or better

Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles, Allowance, Inner Turf
Top Pick: #8 North End Lady. Should appreciate the cutback from 1 3/16 to 1 1/16 miles—the distance where she broke her maiden. Was third last out in this same condition and gets Dylan Davis back aboard.
The Bet: $20 to Win at 6-1 or better

Race 9: G3 Lake George Stakes, 1 1/16 Miles, Inner Turf
Top Pick: #5 Classic Q for Casse and Jose Ortiz. Wired the field in the Wild Applause and looks like the clear speed again. Logical second choice is #4 Lavender Disaster for Brown and Prat. She weakened late in that same race to finish third and is well-spotted again here. I also like #6 Princess Attitude, who was second last out to Lush Lips, a next-out stakes winner. She may prefer shorter, but at 15-1, she could grab a piece or be a shock winner.
The Bet: $10 Exacta Key Box: 5 / 4,6 = $40

Update: #6 Princess Attitude has scratched. Use #3 Daisy Flyer underneath as the new longshot play
Revised Bet: $10 Exacta Key Box: 5 / 3,4 = $40

Race 10: G2 Jim Dandy, 1 1/8 Miles, Dirt
Top Pick: #5 Sovereignty is the clear horse to beat at 2-5. Towers over the field on figures and has delivered on the biggest stage. #1 Baeza has been training aggressively and could be more forwardly placed—he’d need a career-best, but that’s not impossible. #3 Mo Plex is the clear speed and proved his two-turn ability with a win in the G3 Ohio Derby at today’s distance. That said, I think Sovereignty’s B+ race gets it done.
To play devil’s advocate: if you’re going to beat the monster that is Sovereignty, your best shot might be at this 1 1/8-mile distance—he seems to prefer the 1 1/4.
The Bet: $20 Trifecta: 5 / 1 / 3
Longshot Play: $5 Exacta 1,3 / 1,3,5 = $20

Race 11: 1 1/16 Miles, MSW, Turf
Top Pick: #9 Hello Beauty. Drops into this restricted NY-bred race after facing open company and owns the highest Beyer in the field (72), five points better than the next closest. #6 Nonna Lynne should improve making her third start after just missing last time. I also like #4 Tahlia for Dylan Davis and Miguel Clement underneath.
The Bet: $10 Exacta 9 / 4,6 = $20

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