2026 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs: Picks and Predictions
The Kentucky Oaks runs Friday evening at Churchill Downs as the centerpiece of Derby Eve, a 14-filly affair worth $1.5 million with a post time of 8:40 p.m. Eastern. Last year, Good Cheer entered as a near-lock. This year, the field is wide open. Aragona and Beer come away with the same three horses on their tickets but disagree on who tops them.
Aragona keeps the morning-line favorite, No. 2 Zany, as his win pick. The Todd Pletcher trainee earned a Beyer of 89 winning the Demoiselle as a juvenile and has yet to match it as a sophomore, but Aragona dismisses the idea she has stalled.
"I don't buy that narrative at all," he says of the suggestion she has not improved from 2 to 3. The 1 1/8 miles is the spot, in his view: "I think she's going to relish, even improve going the nine-furlong distance."
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Her last-out defeat in the Ashland came over Keeneland's compressed stretch, and Aragona believes the longer Churchill stretch will play to her finish.
Beer goes a different direction with No. 9 Always a Runner, the Chad Brown-trained newcomer with only two starts including a Gazelle win to her name. He makes no apologies for siding with talent over experience.
"I do think Always a Runner has as much talent as anybody in this field," he says. "This filly is good."
The question is whether she can get a clean trip when, by Beer's own count, 14 fillies will be barreling toward the first turn.
Another horse both handicappers agree on is No. 10 Prom Queen, the Brad Cox-trained Gulfstream Park Oaks winner. Aragona has her second; Beer has her third.
Aragona credits her tactical maturity: "This filly feels like she's really mentally mature because she's got good gate speed, but the riders take a hold of her and she handles it well."
Beer is sold on her direction: "I like the way that this filly is headed."
For Aragona's full case for the favorite, Beer's read on the trip Always a Runner needs, and the rest of the contenders neither handicapper could land on, watch the full handicapping above.
The Handicappers’ Verdict
David Aragona's picks
No. 2 Zany
No. 10 Prom Queen
No. 9 Always a Runner
Mike Beer's picks
No. 9 Always a Runner
No. 2 Zany
No. 10 Prom Queen
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