A Kentucky Derby Ticket is on the Line Saturday at Colonial Downs
Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer disagree on the top pick in Saturday's $500,000 Kentucky Derby qualifier.
Fifty Kentucky Derby qualifying points go to the winner of Saturday's Virginia Derby – enough to guarantee a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs. Daily Racing Form's David Aragona and Mike Beer have both taken a hard look at the 10-horse field, and they are not in agreement on who comes out on top.
The expected favorite is No. 1 Buetane, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Flavien Prat. But neither handicapper is fully sold.
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Why the favorite is beatable?
Buetane draws the rail and will attract money based on his connections alone, as Aragona noted. But his last race – a third-place finish in the Southwest Stakes – left both handicappers wanting more. Beer said the figures "fairly stand out against this field" but stopped well short of a strong endorsement. Aragona raised questions about how far the horse ultimately wants to go.
Both handicappers include Buetane in their picks. Neither puts him on top.
The horse Aragona wants most
Aragona’s top selection is No. 6 Lockstocknpharoah, trained by Thomas Drury Jr. and ridden by Eddie Morales. He has won both prior starts at Turfway Park over the synthetic surface – Saturday is his first start on dirt. Aragona called his second start – where he made the lead and pulled away in the stretch – genuinely impressive. Beer said he “absolutely smashed that field” last time. Both handicappers pointed to his pedigree – by American Pharoah – as a reason to expect he handles the surface, and Aragona added that workouts at Churchill Downs suggested the horse was comfortable on dirt in the mornings.
The horse Beer wants most
Beer's top selection is No. 5 High Camp, trained by Will Walden and ridden by John Velazquez. He has two career starts, both at Gulfstream Park on dirt. Beer highlighted his maiden win going seven furlongs – he waited while others made premature moves on the far turn, then tipped out at the top of the stretch and finished strongly. Beer called that finish "probably the best part of the race" and said the pedigree supports the added distance. Aragona agreed, noting High Camp handled rail pressure in his debut and responded once he got clear. He is the one horse who appears on both sets of picks.
The Handicappers' Verdict
David Aragona's picks:
Lockstocknpharoah
Incredibolt
High Camp
Buetane
Mike Beer's picks:
High Camp
Lockstocknpharoah
Buetane
Ocelli