Kentucky Derby Contenders: Emerging Market, Fulleffort, and Pavlovian Join Daily Racing Form's List

Horse Racing handicappers David Aragona and David Grening reveal their updated watch list for the Kentucky Derby.

Jockey Junior Alvarado and Sovereignty were bathed in the finish line light as they won the 2025 Kentucky Derby Saturday, May 3, 2025 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. | Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Kentucky Derby contenders: Emerging Market, Fulleffort, and Pavlovian join Daily Racing Form list after 100-point preps

Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form's David Aragona and David Grening

The field begins to take shape

Three horses earned their way onto the Daily Racing Form Top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders list this week – Emerging Market (15-1), Fulleffort (25-1), and Pavlovian (30-1), all coming out of last weekend's 100-point prep races. Chip Honcho, Reagan's Honor, and Blackout Time were dropped to make room. Paladin remains the 6-1 favorite, with Chief Wallabee and Commandment co-second choices at 8-1.

A grinder takes the long road to Churchill

Fulleffort has never run on dirt. That is the central fact surrounding his 2 1/2-length victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, where he earned a 94 Beyer on the synthetic surface and is now pointed to the Kentucky Derby. On this week's Derby Watch podcast, Grening said there are "a lot of parallels" between Fulleffort and Final Gambit – the Brad Cox trainee who won the Jeff Ruby Steaks last year, then trained better on the Churchill Downs dirt than he had as a 2-year-old before finishing fourth in the Derby. Aragona described Fulleffort as a horse who "does not have that electric turn of foot. But he's a grinder." Aragona said the barn will be watching his Churchill Downs training closely in the weeks ahead.

Two starts, one head, one enormous question

Emerging Market won at Fair Grounds by a head over Pavlovian in just his second career start, going 1 3/16 miles for the first time and facing winners for the first time. Aragona said the colt "has yet to hit the ceiling of what he could do" – but added that no horse has won the Kentucky Derby off just two prior starts since 1883.

Pavlovian, who set what Grening called "a pretty legitimate pace" and still held on for second, now holds the points to run in the Derby. Grening said the runner-up "is emerging as a Derby horse. He's got the points now to get in, and they are headed that direction."

One race to define the top of the board

Grening said the next 10 days "should really formulate our field," and Saturday's Florida Derby is where that process begins. Chief Wallabee and Commandment – who were separated by a neck in the Fountain of Youth – meet again, this time with Nearly (10-1) and The Puma (25-1) also in the gate. Aragona noted that Nearly, who bypassed the Fountain of Youth to point exclusively to this race, needs a top effort to secure the points necessary to reach Churchill Downs.

The Arkansas Derby on Saturday draws Renegade (10-1) alongside Silent Tactic (20-1), of whom Grening said after rewatching the Rebel that he "ran better than maybe I initially appreciated." Aragona said of Renegade that he "has just continued to step forward with each and every start."

View complete Daily Racing Form Kentucky Derby rankings and the full Derby Watch podcast at DRF.com

Daily Racing Form's Kentucky Derby rankings (Week 8, March 25, 2026)

1. Paladin (Chad Brown, 6-1) Last start: 1st by 1/2 length, Risen Star (G2), Feb. 14 – 93 Beyer Best Beyer: 93 Next start: Blue Grass (G2), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M

T2. Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott, 8-1)
Last start: 2nd by neck, Fountain of Youth (G2), Feb. 28 – 100 Beyer
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8M

T2. Commandment (Brad Cox, 8-1)
Last start: 1st by neck, Fountain of Youth (G2), Feb. 28 – 101 Beyer
Best Beyer: 101
Next start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8M

T4. Nearly (Todd Pletcher, 10-1)
Last start: 1st by 5 3/4 lengths, Holy Bull (G3), Jan. 31 – 98 Beyer
Best Beyer: 98
Next start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8M

T4. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, 10-1)
Last start: 1st by 3 3/4 lengths, Sam F. Davis (G3), Feb. 7 – 93 Beyer
Best Beyer: 93
Next start: Arkansas Derby (G2), March 28, Oaklawn Park, 1 1/8M

T6. Class President (Todd Pletcher, 15-1)
Last start: 1st by nose, Rebel (G2), March 1 – 91 Beyer
Best Beyer: 91
Next start: Blue Grass (G2), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M

T6. Emerging Market (Chad Brown, 15-1)
Last start: 1st by head, Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21 – 90 Beyer
Best Beyer: 97
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T8. Potente (Bob Baffert, 20-1)
Last start: 1st by head, San Felipe (G2), March 7 – 89 Beyer
Best Beyer: 89
Next start: Santa Anita Derby (G1), April 4, Santa Anita Park, 1 1/8M

T8. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, 20-1)
Last start: 2nd by nose, Rebel (G2), March 1 – 91 Beyer
Best Beyer: 91
Next start: Arkansas Derby (G2), March 28, Oaklawn Park, 1 1/8M

T10. Fulleffort (Brad Cox, 25-1)
Last start: 1st by 2 1/2 lengths, Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), March 21 – 94 Beyer
Best Beyer: 94
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T10. Further Ado (Brad Cox, 25-1)
Last start: 2nd by 3/4 length, Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7 – 87 Beyer
Best Beyer: 98
Next start: Blue Grass (G2), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M

T10. Incredibolt (Bill Mott, 25-1)
Last start: 1st by four lengths, Virginia Derby, March 14 – 88 Beyer
Best Beyer: 88
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T10. The Puma (Gustavo Delgado Sr., 25-1)
Last start: 1st by 3/4 length, Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7 – 89 Beyer
Best Beyer: 89
Next start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8M

Full Top 20 also includes: Cherokee Nation (30-1), Golden Tempo (30-1), Iron Honor (30-1), Pavlovian (30-1), Danon Bourbon (40-1), Intrepido (40-1), Litmus Test (50-1)