Kentucky Derby Contenders: Incredibolt's Virginia Derby Rebound Opens Final Prep Round

This Saturday marks the start of the final round of 100-point qualifying races for the Kentucky Derby.

Barbara statue at Churchill Downs. March 3, 2026 | Michael Clevenger/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Six weeks from the Kentucky Derby, the road to Churchill Downs is entering its most consequential stretch. This Saturday marks the start of the final round of 100-point qualifying races – the preps that will determine which horses earn a spot in the May 2 starting gate and who will fall short. Into that backdrop comes a reshuffled Daily Racing Form Top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders list, headlined by the addition of Incredibolt following his Virginia Derby victory. Paladin remains the 6-1 favorite, with Commandment and Chief Wallabee co-second choices at 8-1.

A winner who raises questions

Incredibolt drew off by four lengths in the Virginia Derby, rebounding from a no-show effort in the Holy Bull, and Daily Racing Form's David Grening said the colt looked like a winner throughout – tracking the pace, finding a clean lane through the stretch, and finishing with authority under jockey Jaime Torres. But Grening and Daily Racing Form handicapper David Aragona both came away with reservations.

Grening pointed out that Incredibolt's 88 Beyer Speed Figure – a measure of how fast a horse ran relative to the day's track conditions – means the colt has never reached the 90 threshold that most serious Kentucky Derby contenders achieve. Aragona added that the field Incredibolt defeated was modest. With no further prep planned before the Derby itself, the colt faces a seven-week gap that will test whether his training alone can bring him to peak form on the first Saturday in May. Grittiness rallied from last, six wide, to finish second, while Buetane encountered traffic on the turn and was blocked in the stretch. Trainer Bob Baffert is pointing Buetane to the Wood Memorial on April 4 at Aqueduct.

Points becoming scarce

The points picture is tightening fast, and on this week's Derby Watch podcast Aragona and Grening laid out exactly what is at stake. With potentially only 17 starting spots available for North American horses, and the cutoff currently sitting at 20 points, Grening projected it could reach 45 or higher once the final 100-point preps are complete. That means winning or finishing second is likely the only path to a berth – a third-place finish in a 100-point race earns just 25 points, potentially still short of the cutoff. The pressure falls hardest on Renegade, Silent Tactic, Litmus Test, and Blackout Time, all pointing to Arkansas Derby on March 28 at Oaklawn Park. Aragona said Blackout Time is "just barely hanging onto" his spot on the list after a dull Rebel effort and needs a major forward move to justify a place in the gate.

A pivotal weekend ahead

This Saturday's Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds features Chip Honcho and Golden Tempo from the top 20, opening the 100-point series with a race Grening said sets up more competitively than it might appear – he came away thinking Chip Honcho "would be tougher to beat in this race than I initially might have thought." The Florida Derby on March 28 shapes up as the race of the prep season, with Commandment, Chief Wallabee, Nearly, and potentially The Puma all expected to enter – a single afternoon at Gulfstream Park that could reshape the entire top of the list before Derby week arrives.

For complete Derby Watch Top 20 rankings, visit DRF.com.

Daily Racing Form's Kentucky Derby rankings (Week 7, March 18, 2026)

1. Paladin (Chad Brown, 6-1) Last start: 1st by 1/2, Risen Star (G2), Feb. 14 – 93 Beyer Best Beyer: 93 Next start: Blue Grass (G2), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M

T2. Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott, 8-1)
Last start: 2nd by neck, Fountain of Youth (G2), Feb. 28 – 100 Beyer
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8M

T2. Commandment (Brad Cox, 8-1)
Last start: 1st by neck, Fountain of Youth (G2), Feb. 28 – 101 Beyer
Best Beyer: 101
Next start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8M

T4. Nearly (Todd Pletcher, 10-1)
Last start: 1st by 5 3/4, Holy Bull (G3), Jan. 31 – 98 Beyer
Best Beyer: 98
Next start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8M

T4. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, 10-1)
Last start: 1st by 3 3/4, Sam F. Davis, Feb. 7 – 93 Beyer
Best Beyer: 93
Next start: Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28, Oaklawn Park, 1 1/8M

6. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, 15-1)
Last start: 2nd by nose, Rebel (G2), March 1 – 91 Beyer
Best Beyer: 91
Next start: Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28, Oaklawn Park, 1 1/8M

T7. Class President (Todd Pletcher, 20-1)
Last start: 1st by nose, Rebel (G2), March 1 – 91 Beyer
Best Beyer: 91
Next start: Blue Grass (G2) or Wood Memorial (G2), April 4, Keeneland or Aqueduct, 1 1/8M

T7. Incredibolt (Bill Mott, 20-1)
Last start: 1st by 4, Virginia Derby, March 14 – 88 Beyer
Best Beyer: 88
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T7. Potente (Bob Baffert, 20-1)
Last start: 1st by head, San Felipe (G2), March 7 – 89 Beyer
Best Beyer: 89
Next start: Santa Anita Derby (G1), April 4, Santa Anita Park, 1 1/8M

10. Cherokee Nation (Bob Baffert, 25-1)
Last start: 1st by 10, SA maiden, Feb. 27 – 100 Beyer
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Santa Anita Derby (G1), April 4, Santa Anita Park, 1 1/8M

T11. Further Ado (Brad Cox, 25-1)
Last start: 2nd by 3/4, Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7 – 87 Beyer
Best Beyer: 98
Next start: Blue Grass (G2), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M

T11. The Puma (Gustavo Delgado Sr., 25-1)
Last start: 1st by 3/4, Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7 – 89 Beyer
Best Beyer: 89
Next start: Florida Derby (G1) or Blue Grass (G2), March 28 or April 4, Gulfstream Park or Keeneland, 1 1/8M

T13. Chip Honcho (Steve Asmussen, 30-1)
Last start: 2nd by 1/2, Risen Star (G2), Feb. 14 – 92 Beyer
Best Beyer: 92
Next start: Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21, Fair Grounds, 1 3/16M

T13. Iron Honor (Chad Brown, 30-1)
Last start: 1st by 1, Gotham (G3), Feb. 28 – 90 Beyer
Best Beyer: 95
Next start: Wood Memorial (G2), April 4, Aqueduct, 1 1/8M

T15. Golden Tempo (Cherie DeVaux, 35-1)
Last start: 3rd by 6, Risen Star (G2), Feb. 14 – 84 Beyer
Best Beyer: 84
Next start: Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21, Fair Grounds, 1 3/16M

T15. Reagan's Honor (Cherie DeVaux, 35-1)
Last start: 1st by 6 3/4, FG allowance, Feb. 19 – 96 Beyer
Best Beyer: 96
Next start: Blue Grass (G2), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M

Full Top 20 also includes: Danon Bourbon (40-1), Intrepido (40-1), Litmus Test (40-1), Blackout Time (50-1)