Kentucky Derby Contenders: Renegade and Commandment Rise up the Ranks with Paladin's Injury

There's a new favorite for the Kentucky Derby after the initial top horse suffered a leg injury.

Churchill Downs employees Corey McGreal and Todd Herl work to update the iconic green Kentucky Derby sign above the Grandstand to reflect the 152nd Running of the Kentucky Derby. April 1, 2026. | Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Kentucky Derby lost its 6-1 favorite last week when Paladin was ruled off the Triple Crown trail with a non-displaced condylar fracture in his right front ankle. Daily Racing Form handicapper David Aragona called it "a gut punch, to be sure" – not only for the Derby but for a horse trainer Chad Brown had viewed as a potential Belmont Stakes and Travers contender as well. With Paladin gone, the Daily Racing Form Top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders list welcomes three new horses – Wonder Dean, Reagan's Honor, and Six Speed – and drops Nearly and Litmus Test, while the top of the board takes a new shape.

Renegade is the new favorite at 7-2. Commandment is next at 9-2. Chief Wallabee and The Puma are co-third choices at 10-1.

Commandment wins the best prep — and needs a new rider

On this week's Derby Watch podcast, Daily Racing Form's David Grening was direct about what Commandment's Florida Derby performance revealed: "Commandment is just a horse. He does what he has to do. He knows where the wire is." The Brad Cox-trained colt won by a nose over The Puma, with Chief Wallabee third, earning a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in his third consecutive win.

Aragona said he regards Commandment as "the most likely winner of the Kentucky Derby" right now – an unusual distinction for a horse who will likely need a new jockey. With Irad Ortiz Jr. expected to stay aboard Renegade after the Arkansas Derby, the names of Manny Franco and Luis Saez were raised on the podcast as riders Cox has worked with successfully.

The Puma, who rallied from last to miss by a nose – also earning a 100 Beyer – vaults from 25-1 to 10-1. Grening noted the colt has "outrun expectations basically through all of his prep races so far" and praised the versatility he has shown heading into Louisville.

Chief Wallabee slips from 8-1 to 10-1.

Renegade's final furlong makes the case

Renegade won the Arkansas Derby by four lengths, earning a 98 Beyer, and moves from 10-1 to 7-2. Aragona pointed to the final furlong – run in roughly 11 4/5 seconds – as the defining image of the colt's season: "just rocketing away from that field."

Grening called Silent Tactic – who moves from 20-1 to 25-1 – a horse who "reliably showed up" in four starts this year, adding that his running style suits the likely pace that the Kentucky Derby figures to provide.

Japan and the UAE lock in their starters

The international picture cleared over the weekend. Danon Bourbon, trained by Manabu Ikezoe, won Japan's Fukuryu Stakes by 3 1/2 lengths – all three of his career wins are at 1 1/8 miles or farther – and moves from 40-1 to 15-1. Grening said he "liked his tactical speed and his ability to finish."

Wonder Dean won the UAE Derby by 2 1/2 lengths to join the list at 30-1, though Grening said he was "a little lukewarm on that race" as a form reference. Six Speed, runner-up in the UAE Derby, enters at 50-1.

Reagan's Honor rejoins at 40-1 following Paladin's withdrawal.

Three 200-point races Saturday will reshape the final Derby picture: the Blue Grass at Keeneland, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, and the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita. Class President, Further Ado, and Reagan's Honor run in the Blue Grass; Iron Honor goes in the Wood Memorial; Potente, Cherokee Nation, and Intrepido head to the Santa Anita Derby.

View complete Daily Racing Form Kentucky Derby rankings and the full Derby Watch podcast at DRF.com

Daily Racing Form's Kentucky Derby rankings (Week 9, April 1, 2026)

1. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, 7-2) Last start: 1st by four lengths, Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28 – 98 Beyer Best Beyer: 98 Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

2. Commandment (Brad Cox, 9-2)
Last start: 1st by nose, Florida Derby (G1), March 28 – 100 Beyer
Best Beyer: 101 Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T3. Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott, 10-1)
Last start: 3rd by 1/2 length, Florida Derby (G1), March 28 – 99 Beyer
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T3. The Puma (Gustavo Delgado Sr., 10-1)
Last start: 2nd by nose, Florida Derby (G1), March 28 – 100 Beyer
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

5. Emerging Market (Chad Brown, 12-1)
Last start: 1st by head, Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21 – 90 Beyer
Best Beyer: 97
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

6. Danon Bourbon (Manabu Ikezoe, 15-1)
Last start: 1st by 3 1/2 lengths, Fukuryu Stakes, March 28 – NA Beyer
Best Beyer: N/A
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T7. Class President (Todd Pletcher, 20-1)
Last start: 1st by nose, Rebel (G2), March 1 – 91 Beyer
Best Beyer: 91
Next start: Blue Grass (G1), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M

T7. Fulleffort (Brad Cox, 20-1)
Last start: 1st by 2 1/2 lengths, Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), March 21 – 94 Beyer
Best Beyer: 94
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T7. Potente (Bob Baffert, 20-1)
Last start: 1st by head, San Felipe (G2), March 7 – 89 Beyer
Best Beyer: 89
Next start: Santa Anita Derby (G1), April 4, Santa Anita, 1 1/8M

T10. Further Ado (Brad Cox, 25-1)
Last start: 2nd by 3/4 length, Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7 – 87 Beyer
Best Beyer: 98
Next start: Blue Grass (G1), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M

T10. Incredibolt (Bill Mott, 25-1)
Last start: 1st by four lengths, Virginia Derby, March 14 – 88 Beyer
Best Beyer: 88
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T10. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, 25-1)
Last start: 2nd by four lengths, Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28 – 91 Beyer
Best Beyer: 91
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T13. Golden Tempo (Cherie DeVaux, 30-1)
Last start: 3rd by one length, Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21 – 88 Beyer
Best Beyer: 88
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T13. Pavlovian (Doug O'Neill, 30-1)
Last start: 2nd by head, Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21 – 90 Beyer
Best Beyer: 90
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T13. Wonder Dean (Daisuke Takayanagi, 30-1)
Last start: 1st by 2 1/2 lengths, UAE Derby (G2), March 28 – N/A Beyer
Best Beyer: N/A
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T16. Cherokee Nation (Bob Baffert, 35-1)
Last start: 1st by ten lengths, maiden special weight, Feb. 27 – 100 Beyer
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Santa Anita Derby (G1), April 4, Santa Anita, 1 1/8M

T16. Iron Honor (Chad Brown, 35-1)
Last start: 1st by one length, Gotham (G3), Feb. 28 – 90 Beyer
Best Beyer: 95
Next start: Wood Memorial (G2), April 4, Aqueduct, 1 1/8M

18. Reagan's Honor (Cherie DeVaux, 40-1)
Last start: 1st by 6 3/4 lengths, allowance, Feb. 19 – 96 Beyer
Best Beyer: 96
Next start: Blue Grass (G1), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M

T19. Intrepido (Jeff Mullins, 50-1)
Last start: 2nd by 3/4 length, Robert B. Lewis (G3), Feb. 7 – 89 Beyer
Best Beyer: 89
Next start: Santa Anita Derby (G1), April 4, Santa Anita, 1 1/8M

T19. Six Speed (Bhupat Seemar, 50-1)
Last start: 2nd by 2 1/2 lengths, UAE Derby (G2), March 28 – NA Beyer
Best Beyer: N/A
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M