Derby Watch: Three Winners From Final Prep Round Shape a Three-Horse Race

The Kentucky Derby is less than a month away and there's three horse now emerging as the favorites for the Run For the Roses.

Justify, with Mike Smith aboard, wins the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in 2018. | Michael Clevenger and Christopher Granger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The final round of 200-point prep races produced three new winners and five new additions to the Daily Racing Form Top 20 on this week's Derby Watch podcast, with five horses dropping off. Further Ado's 11-length win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland moved him from 25-1 to 5-1, making him a co-second choice alongside Commandment, while Renegade holds the top spot at 4-1.

Jockey dominoes begin to fall

Daily Racing Form's David Grening received a text from jockey agent Steve Rushing mid-recording and announced that Irad Ortiz Jr. had committed to Renegade for the Kentucky Derby. Daily Racing Form handicapper David Aragona, who sets the morning line, said the decision makes him feel good about the odds he had set for the top of the board.

Grening identified John Velazquez as a candidate for Further Ado, given his history with owner Spendthrift Farm, and noted that Jaime Torres figures to stay with Incredibolt over stablemate Albus, both trained by Riley Mott, leaving Albus in need of a rider.

Further Ado's Keeneland dominance raises horse-for-course question

The 106 Beyer Speed Figure (published exclusively in Daily Racing Form) that Further Ado posted in the Blue Grass is the best of any 3-year-old this season, but Grening said "That's going to be a question that follows Further Ado right into the Derby starting gate" – meaning whether he is a Keeneland horse-for-course and whether he will bounce off such a big number. Both of his dominant wins have come at that venue with moderate fractions, a pace unlikely to be replicated with a full field of 20 at Churchill Downs.

Three new winners, one major story

Albus won the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct after Napoleon Solo and Talkin collapsed in the stretch. Grening noted that Albus weaved through traffic to win for trainer Riley Mott. Aragona was direct about the ceiling: "His top Beyer going into the Kentucky Derby is going to be an 84, and it's probably not going to get it done on the first Saturday."

Right to Party closed for second, and both enter the Derby Watch Top 20 as new additions.

So Happy won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and enters at 12-1. Trainer Mark Glatt lost his wife, Dena, earlier this year, and jockey Mike Smith, 59, continues to draw top mounts – stories that will follow this horse to Churchill Downs.

Class President out, Lexington unlikely to matter

Todd Pletcher scratched Class President from the Blue Grass after not liking the way he was moving Thursday morning at Keeneland. Grening put his Derby chances at "almost 0 percent." Cherokee Nation and Intrepido also dropped from contention.

The Grade 3 Lexington Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland is the final race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby points schedule, but no horse in the field can reach the projected cutoff even with a win.

View complete Daily Racing Form Kentucky Derby rankings and the full Derby Watch podcast at DRF.com

Daily Racing Form's Kentucky Derby rankings (Week 10, April 8, 2026)

1. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, 4-1) Last start: 1st by 4 lengths, Arkansas Derby (G1) Best Beyer: 98 Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T2. Commandment (Brad Cox, 5-1)
Last start: 1st by nose, Florida Derby (G1)
Best Beyer: 101
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T2. Further Ado (Brad Cox, 5-1)
Last start: 1st by 11 lengths, Blue Grass (G1)
Best Beyer: 106
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

4. The Puma (Gustavo Delgado Sr., 8-1)
Last start: 2nd by nose, Florida Derby (G1)
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

5. Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott, 10-1)
Last start: 3rd by half-length, Florida Derby (G1)
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

6. So Happy (Mark Glatt, 12-1)
Last start: 1st by 2 3/4 lengths, Santa Anita Derby (G1)
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T7. Danon Bourbon (Manabu Ikezoe, 15-1)
Last start: 1st by 3 1/2 lengths, Fukuryu Stakes
Best Beyer: N/A
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T7. Emerging Market (Chad Brown, 15-1)
Last start: 1st by head, Louisiana Derby (G2)
Best Beyer: 97
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T7. Potente (Bob Baffert, 15-1)
Last start: 2nd by 2 3/4 lengths, Santa Anita Derby (G1)
Best Beyer: 95
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T10. Fuleffort (Brad Cox, 25-1)
Last start: 1st by 2 1/2 lengths, Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3)
Best Beyer: 94
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T10. Incredibolt (Riley Mott, 25-1)
Last start: 1st by 4 lengths, Virginia Derby
Best Beyer: 88
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

13. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, 30-1)
Last start: 2nd by 4 lengths, Arkansas Derby (G1)
Best Beyer: 91
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T14. Golden Tempo (Cherie DeVaux, 35-1)
Last start: 3rd by 1 length, Louisiana Derby (G2)
Best Beyer: 88
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T14. Pavlovian (Doug O'Neill, 35-1)
Last start: 2nd by head, Louisiana Derby (G2)
Best Beyer: 90
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T16. Albus (Riley Mott, 40-1)
Last start: 1st by 1 1/4 lengths, Wood Memorial (G2)
Best Beyer: 84
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T16. Wonder Dean (Daisuke Takayanagi, 40-1)
Last start: 1st by 2 1/2 lengths, UAE Derby (G2)
Best Beyer: N/A
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T18. Chip Honcho (Steve Asmussen, 50-1)
Last start: 5th by 11 1/2 lengths, Louisiana Derby (G2)
Best Beyer: 92
Next start: To be determined

T18. Ottinho (Chad Brown, 50-1)
Last start: 2nd by 11 lengths, Blue Grass (G1)
Best Beyer: 89
Next start: To be determined

T18. Right to Party (Kenny McPeek, 50-1)
Last start: 2nd by 1 1/4 lengths, Wood Memorial (G2)
Best Beyer: 81
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M

T18. Six Speed (Bhupat Seemar, 50-1)
Last start: 2nd by 2 1/2 lengths, UAE Derby (G2)
Best Beyer: N/A
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M