Favorites and Long Shots for the 2026 Kentucky Derby
The 2026 Kentucky Derby is coming up Saturday at Churchill Downs. Let’s meet the field, separated into a few different groups.
It looks like there will be a “big three” of horses that could be vying for the role of favorite in this year’s Derby. Each has won their final prep race leading into the Kentucky Derby and has been impressive throughout their careers.
The favorites
No. 1 Renegade
The Arkansas Derby winner has looked fantastic in his two races in 2026. He’s a deeper closer though, so he could be a little farther back early in the race than the other top contenders. He also drew the inside post and could encounter traffic.
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No. 18 Further Ado
The Blue Grass Stakes winner has the highest Beyer Speed Figure (performance rating) in the race, but I’m not sure how strong of a field he beat. He also owns a win at Churchill Downs.
No. 6 Commandment
The Florida Derby winner is the only horse in the field with four wins. He has defeated the strongest groups in his victories, with wins over Chief Wallabee and The Puma. Of the top three, he could be the most underrated. My personal choice.
Logical contenders
No. 12 Chief Wallabee
He has only one victory but could have as much raw talent as anyone in the Derby. He’s trained by Bill Mott, who won the Kentucky Derby last year with Sovereignty. Chief Wallabee has been training very well in the mornings, but he might be a little overbet.
No. 9 The Puma
He faced all three of the likely favorites – finishing third behind Renegade, defeating Further Ado, and then nearly winning the Florida Derby when just behind Commandment. We know he is battle-tested. I wonder if the Derby distance ends up being a little too far for him.
No. 8 So Happy
The Santa Anita Derby winner is a little sneaky here. Based on Beyer Speed Figures, he is right in the mix with the top contenders. We just don’t really know how good the group of California horses is this year, or if this distance will be too far. So Happy could offer strong value and has a nice running style for the Derby. Trainer Mark Glatt recently dealt with the death of his wife. It will be an emotional Derby Saturday for many that will be rooting for, and with, the Glatt family.
Wild cards
No. 7 Danon Bourbon
We saw Forever Young just miss in his Kentucky Derby attempt a few years ago for Japan and then go on to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic the following year. Japanese racing is too strong not to win the Derby one of these years. They win races all over the world, and this particular runner is undefeated in three starts. It’s hard to get a sense of the competition he has faced, but he looked very good in those victories.
No. 15 Emerging Market
With only two career starts, he is the most lightly raced horse in the field. He’s won both of his races, although it looked like he was going to win the Louisiana Derby by much more than he did. Still has tons of upside but lacks experience.
No. 11 Incredibolt
The Virginia Derby winner owns a victory at Churchill Downs. He’s one of two in the field trained by Riley Mott, son of 2025 Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bill Mott. Just not really sure how good Incredibolt is.
Under the radar for top trainers
No. 14 Potente and No. 4 Litmus Test
Both are trained by six-time Kentucky Derby winner Bob Baffert. Potente has improved in each start, and his lone loss came to So Happy. The California horses are a little underrated, they could outrun their odds.
Litmus Test enters the race off two of his lesser performances. Not sure if he has really improved this year, but he is training very well leading into the race.
No. 19 Golden Tempo
He goes out for one of the newer star trainers of the sport, Cherie DeVaux. She would become the first female trainer to win the Kentucky Derby. One of my personal choices among the longer-priced horses, he will come running late.
No. 16 Pavlovian
Owner Reddam Racing and trainer Doug O’Neill have teamed twice to win the Kentucky Derby. Adding blinkers and changing his running style have really improved this guy in his last few starts. Should be in the mix early.
Longshots
No. 2 Albus and No. 5 Right to Party
These were the top two finishers of the Wood Memorial, one of the slower-rated Kentucky Derby prep races. Albus gives trainer Riley Mott his second chance here, and Right to Party is trained by Kenny McPeek, who won the Kentucky Derby two years ago. I prefer Albus of the two, but both need to improve a lot to win.
No. 10 Wonder Dean and No. 17 Six Speed
These are the top two finishers from the UAE Derby, one of the Derby qualifying races outside of the United States. It’s really tough to get a sense of how good the competition was. Six Speed is likely one of the fastest early in the race, but not sure about late.
No. 3 Intrepido
He has not won since October, and even his best races seem well below the best of the rest.
No. 21 Great White
Great White drew into the race with the scratch of Silent Tactic.
No. 22 Ocelli
Ocelli, winless in six career starts, landed in the starting gate after Fulleffort was withdrawn on Thursday morning.
Also-eligibles: No. 23 Robusta and No. 24 Corona de Oro
If there are any more horses scratch prior to Friday, Robusta and Corona de Oro can take their spot. Robusta would be the most interesting to me if he were to draw in but would be a huge longshot.
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Selections: 6, 8, 14, 19
No. 6 Commandment
I like and feel like he’s not getting quite as much “buzz” as some of the other top contenders. If he's about 5-1 odds, that’s a good price on the horse I think is the most likely winner.
Both #8 So Happy and #14 Potente raced against each other at Santa Anita. The California horses fit very well on speed figures, and they’re going to offer nice value.
My big longshot to use in both the trifecta and superfecta is Golden Tempo. He’s going to be really far back early but should come closing at a huge price.
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