Kentucky Derby 2026: Paladin Solidifies Favoritism with Risen Star Victory
Paladin validated his status atop Daily Racing Form's Kentucky Derby rankings Saturday with a half-length Risen Star Stakes victory, prompting handicapper David Aragona to lower the Chad Brown trainee from 10-1 to 6-1 favoritism. The Gun Runner colt improved to 3-for-3 lifetime while earning 50 qualifying points—virtually guaranteeing his position in the May 2 Churchill Downs starting gate.
"I thought he made like three different moves in this race," Daily Racing Form correspondent David Grening said on this week's Derby Watch podcast. Paladin broke sharply, settled three-wide, then rallied to grind out the victory in the Fair Grounds stretch. "For a first start back, first race in ten weeks, I thought it was as good a prep as you'd want," Aragona added. The 93 Beyer Speed Figure represents solid progression for a horse pointing toward the Blue Grass Stakes on April 4, following the same path Brown used with 2024 Risen Star winner Sierra Leone.
Chip Honcho's front-running second earned him a spot among seven horses tied for sixth in the Daily Racing Form rankings at 30-1 odds. The Steve Asmussen trainee benefited from a blinker removal and loose early lead, though Aragona questioned whether that style translates to Churchill Downs. "When you get into a 20 horse Kentucky Derby field, you're not going to be loose on the lead," he said.
Golden Tempo, also sixth at 30-1 after finishing third, continues a pattern Grening identified: "He continues to get himself just a bit too much to do." Trainer Cherie DeVaux plans to add blinkers for the Louisiana Derby on March 21, according to Daily Racing Form.
The rankings experienced notable attrition. Mesquite exited the Derby trail with a soft-tissue injury, while Bill Mott's Thunderously suffered a setback and will miss the Triple Crown season. Courting dropped from the top 20 after finishing sixth in the Risen Star.
Al Haram joined the rankings at ninth (50-1) following his undefeated Saudi Derby victory. The Irish-bred closer must pay a $6,000 supplemental fee by early April to remain Derby eligible. "Strong late run in one-turn races doesn't often equate to success going longer," Aragona cautioned, though the colt targets the March 28 UAE Derby according to Daily Racing Form.
Todd Pletcher holds two of the top three positions with Nearly (10-1) and Renegade (12-1). Nearly, who captured the Holy Bull Stakes, receives a freshening until the March 28 Florida Derby. Renegade's Sam F. Davis victory continues validating the Remsen Stakes, which Grening called "one of the better races" with three next-out winners.
This week's major North American prep is the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on February 28, featuring fourth-ranked Commandment (20-1), sixth-ranked Canaletto (30-1), undefeated Swale winner Solitude Dude, and impressive debut winner Chief Wallaby.
View the complete Daily Racing Form top 20 Kentucky Derby rankings and full Derby Watch podcast at DRF.com.
RUNNING THIS WEEK
Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade 2)
Gulfstream Park, Race TBD
Friday, February 28, 2026
Featuring: #4 Commandment, #6 Canaletto from Daily Racing Form rankings
TOP 10 KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDERS
Understanding the Rankings
Daily Racing Form's Kentucky Derby rankings are determined by odds assigned by handicapper David Aragona. Horses with identical odds share the same ranking.
- Paladin (6-1)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Last Race: Risen Star S. (G2), Feb. 14 - 1st by ½
Next Start: Blue Grass S. (G1), April 4, Keeneland
Top Beyer: 93
2. Nearly (10-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Last Race: Holy Bull S. (G3), Jan. 31 - 1st by 5¾
Next Start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park
Top Beyer: 98
3. Renegade (12-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Last Race: Sam F. Davis S. (G3), Feb. 7 - 1st by 3¾
Next Start: Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 92
4. Commandment (20-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Last Race: Mucho Macho Man S., Jan. 3 - 1st by 6¾
Next Start: Fountain of Youth S. (G2), Feb. 28, Gulfstream Park
Top Beyer: 91
5. Further Ado (25-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Last Race: Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2), Nov. 29 - 1st by 1¾
Next Start: Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7, Tampa Bay Downs
Top Beyer: 98
5. Litmus Test (25-1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), Dec. 13 - 1st by 1¼
Next Start: San Felipe S. (G2), March 7, Santa Anita
Top Beyer: 96
5. Plutarch (25-1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: Robert B. Lewis S. (G3), Feb. 7 - 1st by ¾
Next Start: TBD
Top Beyer: 90
6. Blackout Time (30-1)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Last Race: Breeders' Futurity (G1), Oct. 4 - 2nd by 2¾
Next Start: Rebel S. (G2), March 1, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 93
6. Brant (30-1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), Oct. 31 - 3rd by 1½
Next Start: Rebel S. (G2), March 1, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 101
6. Canaletto (30-1)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Last Race: GP maiden, Jan. 25 - 1st by 8
Next Start: Fountain of Youth S. (G2), Feb. 28, Gulfstream Park
Top Beyer: 89
6. Chip Honcho (30-1)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Last Race: Risen Star S. (G2), Feb. 14 - 2nd by ½
Next Start: Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21, Fair Grounds
Top Beyer: 92
6. Golden Tempo (30-1)
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
Last Race: Risen Star S. (G2), Feb. 14 - 3rd by 6
Next Start: Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21, Fair Grounds
Top Beyer: 84
6. Intrepido (30-1)
Trainer: Jeff Mullins
Last Race: Robert B. Lewis S. (G3), Feb. 7 - 2nd by ¾
Next Start: TBD
Top Beyer: 89
6. Silent Tactic (30-1)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Last Race: Southwest S. (G3), Feb. 6 - 1st by 3¼
Next Start: Rebel S. (G2), March 1, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 88
7. Napoleon Solo (35-1)
Trainer: Chad Summers
Last Race: Champagne S. (G1), Oct. 4 - 1st by 6½
Next Start: Fountain of Youth or Gotham, Feb. 28
Top Beyer: 95
7. So Happy (35-1)
Trainer: Mark Glatt
Last Race: San Vicente S., Jan. 10 - 1st by 2
Next Start: San Felipe S. (G2), March 7, Santa Anita
Top Beyer: 96