Kentucky Derby 2026: Top 10 Contenders – Week of Feb. 11
Paladin claimed the top position in this week's Daily Racing Form Kentucky Derby rankings, with handicapper David Aragona lowering the Chad Brown trainee to 10-1 favoritism following last weekend's prep race results. The move to No. 1 came despite Paladin not having raced since his Dec. 6 Remsen Stakes victory at Aqueduct – a performance that gained credibility when runner-up Renegade returned to win last Saturday's Sam F. Davis Stakes.
"The Remsen is now starting to prove out," Grening told Aragona on this week's Derby Watch podcast, noting that sixth-place finisher Igniter also won an allowance race at Aqueduct. Renegade's 3 ¾-length Tampa Bay Downs victory earned a career-best 92 Beyer Speed Figure, vaulting Todd Pletcher's colt from outside the top 10 to co-second in the Daily Racing Form rankings.
Aragona and Grening collaborate weekly to assess the 3-year-old division through speed figures, pedigree analysis, and trackside observation, publishing their complete top 20 rankings and full video podcast on Daily Racing Form. Their analysis incorporates Aragona's expertise as a morning-line oddsmaker for major racing events and Grening's daily reporting.
Saturday's Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds (Race 12, 5:30 p.m. CT) features both Paladin making his 3-year-old debut and sixth-ranked Golden Tempo, who won the Jan. 17 Lecomte Stakes at the same track. The race, which awards 50 Derby qualifying points to the winner, represents the first major qualifier of the Championship Series, with the victor virtually assured a Kentucky Derby starting gate position.
"Last two works at Palm Beach Downs, he really galloped out super strong," Grening said of Paladin's training. Aragona added that "everything in his training looks to be like he's ready to take another step forward."
Golden Tempo faces a significant challenge. "He's going to have to get faster to beat a horse like Paladin," Grening noted while acknowledging the Lecomte winner has "license to get better" with only two career starts.
Plutarch provided this week’s other notable top 10 movement, advancing to eighth after his Robert B. Lewis Stakes victory. "Showed different dimension winning Lewis on the pace; believe he'll improve with more ground," Grening said on the Derby Watch podcast. Aragona agreed, noting he appreciated "how much he has matured mentally since last year."
The division lacks a standout speed figure performer to this point. "I'm hoping to see a real speed figure step forward from several of these horses, because none of them have run that fast," Aragona said, suggesting Saturday's Risen Star could provide clarity.
For bettors eyeing this week's Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool, Aragona advised caution on favorites while highlighting potential value. "If you have an opinion on a horse at 50-, 60-, 70-1, why not take a shot?" he said, citing ninth-ranked Blackout Time as a prospect who "could run first or second in the Rebel" and see his odds shorten considerably.
View the complete Daily Racing Form top 20 Kentucky Derby rankings and watch the full Derby Watch podcast at DRF.com.
TOP 10 KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDERS
- Paladin
Trainer: Chad Brown | Odds: 10-1 (9.1%)
Last Race: Remsen S. (G2), Dec. 6 – 1st by 2
Next Start: Risen Star S. (G2), Feb. 14, Fair Grounds
Top Beyer: 87
2. Nearly
Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Odds: 12-1 (7.7%)
Last Race: Holy Bull S. (G3), Jan. 31 – 1st by 5 ¾
Next Start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park
Top Beyer: 98
2. Renegade
Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Odds: 12-1 (7.7%)
Last Race: Sam F. Davis S. (G3), Feb. 7 - 1st by 3 ¾
Next Start: Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 92
4. Commandment
Trainer: Brad Cox | Odds: 20-1 (4.8%)
Last Race: Mucho Macho Man S., Jan. 3 – 1st by 6 ¾
Next Start: Fountain of Youth S. (G2), Feb. 28, Gulfstream Park
Top Beyer: 91
5. Further Ado
Trainer: Brad Cox | Odds: 25-1
Last Race: Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2), Nov. 29 – 1st by 1 ¾
Next Start: Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7, Tampa Bay Downs
Top Beyer: 98
5. Golden Tempo
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux | Odds: 25-1
Last Race: Lecomte S. (G3), Jan. 17 – 1st by ¾
Next Start: Risen Star S. (G2), Feb. 14, Fair Grounds
Top Beyer: 81
5. Litmus Test
Trainer: Bob Baffert | Odds: 25-1
Last Race: Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), Dec. 13 – 1st by 1 ¼
Next Start: San Felipe S. (G2), March 7, Santa Anita
Top Beyer: 96
5. Plutarch
Trainer: Bob Baffert | Odds: 25-1
Last Race: Robert B. Lewis S. (G3), Feb. 7 – 1st by ¾
Next Start: TBD
Top Beyer: 90
9. Blackout Time
Trainer: Kenny McPeek | Odds: 30-1 (3.2%)
Last Race: Breeders' Futurity (G1), Oct. 4 – 2nd by 2 ¾
Next Start: Rebel S. (G2), March 1, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 93
9. Brant
Trainer: Bob Baffert | Odds: 30-1 (3.2%)
Last Race: Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), Oct. 31 – 3rd by 1 ½
Next Start: Rebel S. (G2), March 1, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 101