Kentucky Derby Watch: Fountain of Youth, Rebel highlight loaded weekend

The field of the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby heads towards the first turn Saturday, May 3, 2025 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. | Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Three Kentucky Derby prep races offering 50 qualifying points to the winner – enough to punch a ticket to Louisville – run this weekend, with the deepest fields of the season assembled at Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn Park.

Saturday's $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (Race 12, 5:42 p.m. ET) at Gulfstream and Sunday's $1 million Rebel Stakes (Race 11, 6:23 p.m. ET) at Oaklawn feature eight horses from Daily Racing Form's Derby Watch Top 20 rankings. The $300,000 Gotham Stakes (Race 9, 4:48 p.m. ET) runs Saturday at Aqueduct.

Commandment (20-1) headlines the Fountain of Youth field and could get a dream setup.

"With Napoleon Solo and Solitude Dude in this field, you know there's going to be pace," Daily Racing Form handicapper David Grening said. "I'd be hard pressed to see them not rock and roll on the front end."

Also in the field: Chief Wallabee (35-1), Napoleon Solo (35-1), and Bravaro (50-1).

Sunday's Rebel brings Blackout Time (25-1) and Litmus Test (25-1) from the top contenders list, along with Brant (30-1) and Silent Tactic (30-1).

"Probably the best prep," Daily Racing Form handicapper David Aragona said.

Bob Baffert confirmed to Grening that Plutarch won't make the Kentucky Derby after developing body soreness.

"He's very immature. The timing is bad. I need an extra 30 days," Baffert said.

Beyond Paladin (6-1) and Nearly (10-1), the Derby picture remains wide open.

"Beside from Paladin, maybe Nearly, no one's really jumped out," Grening said.

DERBY WATCH TOP CONTENDERS

Daily Racing Form's Kentucky Derby rankings are determined by odds assigned by handicapper David Aragona. Horses with identical odds share the same ranking.

1. Paladin (6-1) Trainer: Chad Brown Last Race: Risen Star S. (G2), Feb. 14 – 1st by ½ Next Start: Blue Grass S. (G1), April 4, Keeneland Top Beyer: 93

2. Nearly (10-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Last Race: Holy Bull S. (G3), Jan. 31 – 1st by 5 ¾
Next Start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park
Top Beyer: 98

3. Renegade (12-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Last Race: Sam F. Davis S., Feb. 7 – 1st by 3 ¾
Next Start: Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 92

4. Commandment (20-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Last Race: Mucho Macho Man S., Jan. 3 – 1st by 6 ¾
Next Start: Fountain of Youth S. (G2), Feb. 28, Gulfstream Park
Top Beyer: 91

T5. Blackout Time (25-1)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Last Race: Breeders' Futurity (G1), Oct. 4 – 2nd by 2 ¾
Next Start: Rebel S. (G2), March 1, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 93

T5. Further Ado (25-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Last Race: Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), Nov. 29 – 1st by 1 ¾
Next Start: Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7, Tampa Bay Downs
Top Beyer: 98

T5. Litmus Test (25-1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), Dec. 13 – 1st by 1 ¼
Next Start: Rebel S. (G2), March 1, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 96

View complete Daily Racing Form Kentucky Derby rankings and the full Derby Watch podcast at DRF.com.

Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form's David Aragona and David Grening