The Best Picks and Predictions for the Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026
Twenty 3-year-olds line up Saturday at Churchill Downs for the 152nd Kentucky Derby, with a $5 million purse on the line and a post time of 6:57 p.m. Eastern. Aragona sees no standout in this group on the order of a California Chrome or an American Pharaoh, and Beer notes that everyone at this stage of the game is still lightly raced. They agree on Commandment as one of the most reliable horses in the field but split on the top spot, with Beer chasing a longer price.
Aragona lands on No. 6 Commandment, trained by Brad Cox, who arrives off wins in the Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth. The colt has won races coming from off the pace and racing up close to it, and Aragona reads that versatility as the strongest argument in a deep field.
"He's the one that I rely on to show up and get the trip that he needs," Aragona said. "Of all 20 horses that are going to be in the starting gate on Saturday, this horse is the most reliable."
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Beer seeks a bigger price with No. 14 Potente, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Juan Hernandez. Potente was second in the Santa Anita Derby after getting hooked on the lead with Robusta, and Beer believes a more patient ride will let the colt run to his winning San Felipe form.
"I think Potente is going to take a step forward in here," Beer said. "I'm going to give him an excuse for getting the wrong trip in his most recent prep race."
The 4-1 morning-line favorite is No. 1 Renegade, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., who drew the rail off an Arkansas Derby win. Aragona placed him third and acknowledged the price concern; Beer left him off entirely, looking elsewhere for value.
Aragona pairs his top choice with the Florida Derby runner-up, No. 9 The Puma, trained by Gustavo Delgado.
Commandment is the lone horse to appear on both selection sets – Aragona has him on top, Beer slots him third.
The Handicappers’ Verdict
David Aragona's picks
No. 6 Commandment
No. 9 The Puma
No. 1 Renegade
No. 8 So Happy
Mike Beer's picks
No. 14 Potente
No. 13 Silent Tactic (Scratched)
No. 6 Commandment
No. 18 Further Ado
For a full look at every Derby contender, watch the video above with Aragona and Beer.
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