Black Caviar, Frankel, Secretariat: What the World’s Greatest Horses Had in Common

What makes a racehorse great?

Is it speed? That’s the easy answer, but maybe not the whole answer. After all, track surfaces vary, weather shifts, and track biases (although often overstated) appear from time to time, favoring some paths and penalizing others, kind of like how the fast lane on the highway is generally smooth and the right lane has more holes in it than the Flat Earth theory.

Take Man o’ War. He set seven track records and two world records in 21 career starts. But his Preakness time was a pokey 1:51 3/5 for 1 1/8 miles, and he won the six-furlong Hopeful Stakes in a pedestrian 1:13. Try posting those times in a Saratoga maiden special weight today and see how it goes.

So, maybe it’s competition — who defeated whom, like in boxing.

Yeah, that gets tricky too.

Zenyatta won 19 of 20 starts and still had skeptics. Critics claimed she beat up on weak foes in California, even though she left the state three times — going to Arkansas twice and Kentucky once. She even faced the boys a couple times — in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, no less — winning once and finishing second to Blame, beaten by a head, in the last race of her distinguished career.

On the other hand, Ruffian ran mostly in the Big Apple against small fields of three-year-old fillies she crushed repeatedly. She raced out of state exactly once — to compete in the Sorority at Monmouth Park in New Jersey. Yet, question her greatness and you’ll race out of state too, fleeing an angry mob of New Yorkers who consider the daughter of Reviewer racetrack royalty.

So if it’s not just time and it’s not always competition, what is it that makes a racehorse great?

The Big Win

Well, one thing almost all great horses have in common (and something I look for when handicapping the Kentucky Derby) is a “big win,” which I define as a score by 5+ lengths on the dirt or 3+ lengths on a turf or synthetic surface.

Horses are pack animals. Separating from the herd is unique. A big win signifies mental dominance as much as it does physical superiority.

As gifted as he was physically, I think most would agree that Michael Jordan’s mindset is what made him truly great. The same can be said of Kobe Bryant, Tom Brady, and other champions.

For example, when Joey Chestnut scarfed down 70.5 hot dogs to reclaim the Mustard Belt for a record 17th time, he didn’t gloat about his achievement — instead, he fretted about the wieners he left behind.

“I’m sorry guys,” Chestnut said. “My goal was 70-77 — I really wanted a little bit more.”

The Real-Life Horse Whisperer

Kerry M. Thomas, founder of Herd Dynamic Profiling™, has spent decades studying the mental side of thoroughbred racehorses. He doesn’t just look at how fast a horse moves — he looks at how it handles stress, processes information, and navigates the chaos of competition.

“In my work studying the operating system running the machine,” Thomas says, “I focus on a horse’s athletic intelligence through three converging factors: Sensory Soundness™, Group Herd Dynamic (GHD), and Individual Herd Dynamic (IHD).”

These three systems together determine how a horse responds to pressure, whether it needs the herd for emotional support, and whether it can stay locked-in during competition, claims Thomas.

“One of the most difficult challenges for any herd animal is to operate apart from that instinctual tendency,” he explains. “When a horse separates from the field by five or more lengths — especially if done without environmental cueing or reactive stimulus — it often signals far more than just raw athleticism. It’s a visible marker of Independent Nature.”

And that’s the secret behind a big win. The margin of victory isn’t solely about superiority — it’s about emotional autonomy. It signifies a horse that doesn’t need to run with others, but can run through them.

“Many horses have flashes of this,” Thomas says. “But it’s far more common to see horses succumb to mental fatigue before they hit physical fatigue.”

That is why the ability to separate matters — it demonstrates a mentality that many horses don't have. Horses that achieve greatness tend to show this trait early and often.

For instance:

Ruffian won big in her debut (by 15 lengths) — and seven of her first ten starts.
Seattle Slew broke his maiden by five lengths.
Spectacular Bid won his second start by eight lengths and four of his first 10 starts by margins of five lengths or more.
American Pharoah captured his second start by 4 3/4 lengths on a synthetic surface. He would go on to win the Rebel by 6 1/4 lengths and the Arkansas Derby by eight before closing out his career with big wins in the Preakness and Belmont.
Rachel Alexandra won her three-year-old debut by eight lengths and the Kentucky Oaks by 20 1/4 lengths.
Justify won his first start by 9 1/2 lengths.
Secretariat destroyed a field of maidens in his second start after a troubled trip in his debut and went on to win seven of his 21 career starts by five lengths or more.
Barbaro won his debut by 8 1/2 lengths and was 6 1/2 lengths clear in the Kentucky Derby.

This is not just an American phenomenon either:

Frankel, the highest-rated horse in Timeform history, won the second race of his career by 13 lengths. He went on to win all 14 of his lifetime starts, with 11 Big Wins, eight by five lengths or more — on turf!
Black Caviar, the Australian sprinter, was a perfect 25-for-25 — and over half those races qualified as big wins.

The class level of the big win doesn’t matter much. They are more of a mental breakthrough than a physical one. A great example of this is Charismatic, who won a $62,500 maiden claimer by five lengths before capturing the Kentucky Derby on May 1, 1999.

And while most great horses show brilliance early, others get better with time or a surface change.

Seabiscuit won just seven of his first 45 starts before crushing a $6,000 claiming field by five lengths on August 3, 1936. After that, he reeled off 25 wins in his final 43 starts and was named Horse of the Year in 1938.
John Henry had no Big Wins and a modest 4-for-18 record on dirt when he tried turf for the first time on June 1, 1978. After a 14-length score that day, he would go on to win 29 more grass races, multiple Eclipse Awards, and a spot in the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame.

As these examples illustrate, a big win often indicates that something has "clicked," and the horse will continue to run well. With this in mind, here are a few names to watch for the rest of the year:

Mindframe – Won his first two races in blowout fashion and remains lightly raced. Still developing, but the upside is obvious.
Mystik Dan – Had multiple big wins before his Kentucky Derby score and he’s more tactical now.
Hill Road – Although he disappointed in the Belmont, this guy may have more to offer down the road. He was a debut winner by five lengths at Leopardstown.
Sovereignty – Broke his maiden by five lengths in the Street Sense and is widely regarded as the top three-year-old in training.

The Big Win

The Real-Life Horse Whisperer

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