Bubble Battle Destined to Produce Drama with Six Races Until Playoffs
With only a half-dozen events until the beginning of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, it’s officially getting to be crunch time. The fight to make the post-season is heating up in an incredible way, and over the next six weeks, the picture is destined to shuffle several times.
There have been 12 different drivers that have parked it in Victory Lane in the first 20 events of the season, thus virtually locking them into the post-season. However, should there be more than four new winners in the next six races, that will change.
Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, and Shane van Gisbergen have each collected three victories this season and thus are guaranteed a spot in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs in 2025. Should there be more than 16 winners, drivers in the post-season will be determined amongst one-time winners by points position.
In order of points position, the eight one-time winners in the NASCAR Cup Series are; William Byron (first), Chase Elliott (second), Ryan Blaney (seventh), Chase Briscoe (eighth), Ross Chastain (ninth), Joey Logano (11th), Austin Cindric (20th), and Josh Berry (21st).
Tyler Reddick, Chris Buescher, Alex Bowman, and Bubba Wallace are the four drivers currently sitting above the cutline heading to Dover Motor Speedway this weekend. Ryan Preece, Kyle Busch, AJ Allmendinger, and Ty Gibbs are the first four drivers below the cutline.
SVG SCHOOLS THE CUP FIELD IN WINE COUNTRY@shanevg97 captured his third victory of the season Sunday at Sonoma, launching him further up the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Grid with six races until the postseason.#NASCAR pic.twitter.com/9gygMSSb89
— TobyChristie.com (@TobyChristieCom) July 14, 2025
The six tracks remaining on the regular-season schedule are: Dover Motor Speedway (July 20), Indianapolis Motor Speedway (July 27), Iowa Speedway (August 3), Watkins Glen International (July 10), Richmond Raceway (July 16), and Daytona International Speedway (August 23)
Here's a look at the post-season bubble battle heading into Sunday's AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Dover Motor Speedway.
#45 Tyler Reddick (+143)
Tyler Reddick isn’t guaranteed a spot in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, just yet.
The Corning, California-native is currently the highest placed driver in NASCAR Cup Series point standings (sitting in fifth) that hasn’t yet made it to Victory Lane in 2025 but currently sits a rock-solid 143 points above the cutline – a position held by Ryan Preece.
It would likely take an extremely disastrous series of events, plus a string of first-time winners, to knock the No. 45 Toyota Camry XSE below the cutline. No doubt that Reddick and 23XI Racing would love to get back in Victory Lane, but it’s not mandatory to make an appearance in the postseason.
#17 Chris Buescher (+34)
Now, this is where the true slugfest beings… Chris Buescher is currently ranked 13th-place on the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Grid. Heading to Dover Motor Speedway this weekend, Buescher has a 34-point advantage on his RFK Racing teammate Ryan Preece.
The Prosper, Texas-native has been on a pretty solid run as of late, with seven straight finishes inside the top-20, including two top-fives and four top-10s. That stretch of decent finishes has jumped the No. 17 Ford Mustang from being directly on the bubble to having a bit of a buffer.
There has been some substantial speed in the RFK Racing machines over the last couple of months, between all three of the organization’s full-time entries (Keselowski, Buescher, and Preece). While a win isn’t necessary at this point in time, as more drivers continue to lock into the post-season it’s going to become more vital to record some solid runs.
Buescher is the defending NASCAR Cup Series race-winner at Watkins Glen, in a spirited battle where he beat Shane van Gisbergen in a last-lap showdown. That could be the biggest chance for the No. 17 team to avoid another near-miss like what happened last season.
#48 Alex Bowman (+32)
With six races until the post-season, Alex Bowman is the only driver from Hendrick Motorsports who hasn’t confirmed his spot in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. The driver of the No. 48 has yet to go to Victory Lane in 2025, leaving him vulnerable to missing out on the 16-driver fight for the title.
Bowman enters Dover Motor Speedway with a 32-point buffer on bubble driver Ryan Preece, which is pretty solid, for now, but with a new winner, or even a poor showing from the No. 48 Ally Chevrolet, that advantage could be completely wiped out.
Since his massive crash at Michigan International Speedway in June, Bowman has been grinding out some fantastic finishes, with top-five results at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez and EchoPark Speedway, plus a top-10 at the Chicago Street Course.
Runs like those will continue to be important as the regular season comes to a close, but it will remain important to pay attention to who is parking it in Victory Lane – aside from obviously hoping that it’s going to be him.
#23 Bubba Wallace (+3)
If Bubba Wallace and 23XI Racing are going to be a part of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, the skid is going to have to stop soon.
Over the last four weeks, the native of Mobile, Alabama has finished worse thaan 22nd, leaving the No. 23 Toyota Camry XSE to freefall down the Playoff Grid, to the point where he enters this weekend's event at Dover Motor Speedway just three points above the cutline.
The organization is more than capable of having strong runs, we’ve seen it several times throughout the first 20 events of the season, but consistency has become a difficult thing for Wallace over the last couple of months, as shown by his recent run of poor finishes.
It's time to get a move on for the No. 23 team, especially with Daytona International Speedway being one of the final six events of the regular season.
#60 Ryan Preece (-3)
After jumping from team to team throughout his NASCAR Cup Series career, there were questions about how well Ryan Preece would adapt to being at RFK Racing in 2025. Well… question answered, the Berlin, Connecticut-native is in contention for the post-season.
It’s been a great year for Preece, collecting a single top-five finish and eight top-10s (a career-high) through the first 20 NASCAR Cup Series events of 2025. A couple of poor finishes and a Talladega DQ have cost him points, but the No. 60 remains just three points below the cutline.
Should recent trends continue – without too many new winners – Preece should be able to make a healthy charge into the post-season, having finished top-15 in eight of the last nine races, including five top-10 results. Notable improvements on the road courses have kept Preece afloat in the battle during the Summer.
Now, with six races left until the postseason, the mission is simple: keep putting together great results.
#8 Kyle Busch (-37)
Kyle Busch, a two-time champion of the NASCAR Cup Series, is currently staring directly down the barrel of the possibility of missing the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs for the second time in his three-year stint with Richard Childress Racing (RCR).
With six races remaining in the regular-season, Busch is sitting 17th on the Playoff Grid, with a 37-point deficit to the final driver into the post-season, Bubba Wallace. To make matters worse, the 63-time race-winner is sitting on a winless streak of more than 75 races.
It’s going to be quite the uphill battle for Busch, who is going to need to continue putting together strong efforts for the next six weeks. The problem for Busch? It’s been since last September in the Southern 500 (30 races ago), since the Las Vegas, Nevada-native has had a top-five on an oval.
Busch, Richard Childress Racing, and Rowdy Nation are all desperate for a return to Victory Lane this year, but the question remains whether it will come in time for Busch to be a part of the 16-driver NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
#16 AJ Allmendinger (-50)
A.J Allmendinger is on the brink of being in contention for the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs in 2025.
The Los Gatos, California-native currently sits 16th in regular-season points, but since multiple race winners are lower in points, that has dropkicked the Kaulig Racing driver to 19th on the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Grid, 50 points below the cutline.
It’s not impossible for Allmendinger to get into the post-season via points, but that would require a mistake-free six weeks with some incredible runs. The most likely option for the No. 16 Chevrolet team, is securing a victory.
The one racetrack that comes to mind is Watkins Glen, which has returned to its spot in the regular-season in 2025. However, Allmendinger will need to beat Shane van Gisbergen – like he beat Supercars champion Marcus Ambrose at that very same racetrack in 2014.
Can Allmendinger pull off the same kind of miraculous run in 2025?
#54 Ty Gibbs (-60)
It may be a stretch to say Ty Gibbs has a legitimate shot at getting into the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs on points this season, sitting 60 points below the cutline with six races remaining.
However, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver has turned his season around – recovering from what was a dismal first part of the 2025 season. Now, in the last six races, the driver of the No. 54 hasn’t finished worse than 14th-place and has jumped from 27th to 17th in regular-season point standings.
For points to be an avenue, it would take a miracle (or several) over the next six weeks. So, it’s time for Gibbs and crew chief Tyler Allen to lock-in and chase that elusive first victory in the NASCAR Cup Series, as his post-season hopes may rely on it.
Gibbs has an average finish of 11.5 at Dover and has been a strong adversary to Shane van Gisbergen on the road courses this season. Both of those racetracks could end up being strong contenders for the Charlotte, North Carolina-native to drive into Victory Lane.
Everybody Else (-68 to -322)
There are 15 other drivers that could *technically* still qualify for the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, by virtue of having competed in all 20 events this season. Those drivers range from Erik Jones, 68 points below the cutline, to Cody Ware, 322 points below the cutline.
It’s nearly impossible for any of these drivers to find themselves in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs based solely on their points position, so, they’ll have to capture a victory in one of these next six regular-season races.
Erik Jones and John Hunter Nemechek have been showing all kinds of speed lately for LEGACY MOTOR CLUB, with multiple top-fives and top-10s between them. Could that speed result in an eleventh-hour victory and post-season berth?
Michael McDowell and Daniel Suarez have shown great speed on the road courses, and in particular at Watkins Glen International. A victory for both of them would mitigate some of the disappointments of this season, and for Suarez, maybe help him solidify a Cup Series seat for 2026.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. and Justin Haley seem to have a knack for superspeedways, could one them potentially throw together a ‘hail mary’ in the regular-season finale at Daytona International Speedway to disrupt the post-season picture one more time.
Austin Dillon technically won last Summer’s event at Richmond Raceway, although it didn’t actually count for a post-season berth. Could the No. 3 team redeem themselves from the controversy that surrounded them last season.
Carson Hocevar has been the recipient of some fast racecars from Spire Motorsports throughout this season. Could the No. 77 team finally put it together and park it in Victory Lane for Hocevar’s first-ever win and the organization’s first win since 2020?
Last season, Harrison Burton was last-place in point standings amongst full-time drivers, but a victory at Daytona International Speedway put him and Wood Brothers Racing into the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Maybe Cody Ware can pull off the ultimate underdog story and get Rick Ware Racing into the Playoffs for the first time.
As we've learned over the last couple of years, there's nothing out of the realm of possibility when it comes to the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
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Joseph Srigley covers NASCAR for TobyChristie.com, Racing America, and OnSI, and is the owner of the #SrigleyStats brand. With a higher education in the subjects of business, mathematics, and data analytics, Joseph is able to fully understand the inner workings of the sport through multiple points of perspective.
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