Can Anyone Stop Van Gisbergen In NASCAR's First Road Course of 2026?

Last year, during his NASCAR Cup Series Rookie of the Year season, Shane van Gisbergen put on a driving clinic on the road course layouts in NASCAR's premier series. The driver swept the wins in the final five road races of the season, and in doing so became the all-time winningest rookie driver in the history of the NASCAR Cup Series.

This weekend, the series heads to Austin, Texas, and the 2.4-mile Circuit of the Americas road course for the first road race of the season. The big question is can anyone stop van Gisbergen? Or will the Trackhouse Racing driver cruise to his sixth consecutive NASCAR Cup Series road course victory?

That remains to be seen, but Circuit of the Americas, which hosted the first road race of the 2025 season, is the site of the last NASCAR Cup Series road course race, which wasn't won by the New Zealand native.

In fact, van Gisbergen hasn't won at COTA in either of his two career NASCAR Cup Series starts at the facility, ditto for his lone NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series start at the track. That being said, could COTA be the one track where the uber-talented road racer isn't expected to wipe the floor with the competition?

If so, who could stand the best chance of being considered the 'king of the road' until the Cup Series reaches the road-course heavy portion of the season, where van Gibsergen excels?

Tyler Reddick, who comes into this race on a two-race win streak to start the 2026 season, has to be at the top of the list to dethrone van Gisbergen on Sunday. Heading into this race, no driver has a better career average finish at Circuit of the Americas than Reddick, who has an average finish of 4.6 through the five races contested at the track.

Aside from his first start at COTA, where he finished ninth, Reddick has never finished outside of the top-five at the race track. Reddick has scored the pole for this race twice, he's led in all but one of his starts here, and he won this event in 2023. Reddick, who already has momentum on his side, will be in the conversation on Sunday.

Alex Bowman is another driver, who could surprise this weekend. While he's never won at Circuit of the Americas, the driver of the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet is second only to Reddick in career average finish at COTA with a 5.2 average finish, and he is the only other driver to finish all five COTA races to date inside the top-10.

Bowman is without a doubt an underrated road racer, and evidenced by his win in the 2024 Chicago Street Race, where he topped Reddick, Bowman has shown the ability to win in road racing events.

Bowman's two Hendrick Motorsports teammates, William Byron and Chase Elliott, also have a strong track record at COTA, as each driver has a win at the track, and they have average finishes of 6.2 and 6.3, respectively, at the track

Another intriguing option to step up this weekend is Ross Chastain, van Gisbergen's Trackhouse Racing teammate, who has won at COTA in the past. Chastain has the third-best average finish at Circuit of the Americas as well, at 5.6, and this seems to be the road course where he shines above the rest of the road races on the schedule.

Additionally, SVG's other teammate, Connor Zilisch, could find himself in victory lane on Sunday as he has had incredible success at this facility in the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series.

Last year, Zilisch started from the pole, led 26 laps, and scored the win in NASCAR's second-tier event at this track. While Zilisch finished 37th in his NASCAR Cup Series debut at Circuit of the Americas last year, he qualified 14th, and was running inside the top-15 early in the race before he crashed into Daniel Suarez, who spun in front of him. While many expect it to take a little bit for Zilisch to click in the NASCAR Cup Series, there's a chance that his prowess at COTA helps him elevate those expectations this weekend.

Now, this could all be a complete moot point if van Gisbergen comes out, starts on the pole, and crushes the field by more than 15 seconds, as has been commonplace on road courses in the NASCAR Cup Series. However, until we see him win at Circuit of the Americas, it will feel like others actually have a chance at this track.

The NASCAR Cup Series DuraMax Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas is set for Sunday, March 1, and will be televised on FOX with television coverage set to begin at 3:30 PM ET. The Performance Racing Network (PRN) and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio will provide the radio broadcast of the event.