Who Can Make Playoffs Through Daytona Win? 20 Must-Win Drivers Ranked
The regular season for the NASCAR Cup Series is concluding, and this weekend at Daytona International Speedway marks the final opportunity for a driver to win their way into the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
With a 400-mile slug fest around the high banks of Daytona International Speedway separating many drivers from a potentially season-saving victory, Saturday’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 is destined to feature lots of action all the way down the checkered flag.
There are 20 drivers whose only pathway to the post-season is a victory in Saturday’s event, those being: Noah Gragson, Brad Keselowski, Justin Haley, Kyle Busch, Ty Dillon, AJ Allmendinger, Chris Buescher, Todd Gilliland, Riley Herbst, Zane Smith, Cole Custer, John Hunter Nemechek, Erik Jones, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., Cody Ware, Ty Gibbs, Ryan Preece, Michael McDowell, Carson Hocevar, and Daniel Suarez.
A victory by any of those drivers (who make up half of the 40-car starting field for Saturday’s event) would knock either Alex Bowman or Tyler Reddick from championship contention, despite both drivers sitting inside the top-20 in points.
So, who is most likely to snag a late-season victory and put themselves in the top-16 in the final championship standings? Well, let’s look at who is strong when it comes to Daytona International Speedway, ranked from No. 20 (least likely) to No. 1 (most likely).
20. Cody Ware
If you want to talk about an upset, Cody Ware winning his way into the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs at Daytona International Speedway would likely rattle the earth to its core. Ware is 36th in point standings, and has never finished better than fourth in a NASCAR National Series event, but he's been top-six in his last two Summer Daytona events.
It's not impossible, by any means, but it's definitely unlikely.
19. Noah Gragson
To win at Daytona International Speedway, you need to have luck on your side. Well, the Front Row Motorsports No. 4 Ford Mustang, and really the organization in general, have just been unlucky this season. The Las Vegas, Nevada-native does have a top-five at Daytona with Beard Motorsports, but it's hard to translate a former moment of success into a victory.
18. Zane Smith
Zane Smith hasn't been stunning at the superspeedways in the NASCAR Cup Series in his limited starts. The Huntington Beach, California-native did win the pole earlier this season at Talladega Superspeedway, but in his second full-time year of competition at NASCAR's top-level, Smith has finished 13th three times at Daytona -- and to get to Victory Lane, that's kind of a big jump.
17. Daniel Suarez
Daniel Suarez hasn't found a ton of success when it comes to the traditional superspeedways (Daytona and Talladega) in the NASCAR Cup Series, having never finished inside the top-five. The No. 99 is looking to make the post-season as a swansong to his time at Trackhouse Racing, and the good news is, he has figured out Atlanta's new configuration, so maybe that will help him out a little bit.
16. Todd Gilliland
Of the three drivers at Front Row Motorsports, Todd Gilliland has been there the longest, and has experienced the speed that the three-car organization has had at the superspeedways in recent years. Despite having three top-10s at Talladega, Gilliland has never finished on the lead-lap at Daytona, with a best finish of 23rd-place. That will be tough to overcome on Saturday.
15. Ty Dillon
Ty Dillon has done a lot of jumping from team to team throughout his NASCAR Cup Series career, but what has remained steadfast, is his knack for the superspeedways -- having scored one top-five and three top-10s at Daytona. The Kaulig Racing driver may have already used his Cinderella card this year, though, with his advancement to the finals in NASCAR's inaugural Mid-Season Tournament.
14. Cole Custer
There isn't a ton of data to suggest that Cole Custer, a former champion of the NASCAR Xfinity Series, will be among those to beat in Saturday's Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona, but, earlier this year in the DAYTONA 500, the driver of the No. 41 Haas Automation Ford Mustang Dark Horse did have a legitimate shot to win the race, until a last-lap incident handed the victory to William Byron.
13. Riley Herbst
It hasn't been the prettiest of seasons for Riley Herbst, contesting his rookie campaign in a third entry for 23XI Racing, but if there's one thing that could turn it around it's a victory at Daytona International Speedway. Herbst has two top-10s at NASCAR's top-level, but they both came in 2023 at superspeedways (one for Rick Ware Racing and one for Front Row Motorsports). Not to mention, the driver of the No. 35 Monster Energy Toyota Camry XSE was in line for a top-five result before being spun on the final lap of the DAYTONA 500.
12. Carson Hocevar
For Carson Hocevar, speed is never a problem. However, at Daytona International Speedway, you need a lot more than speed to win races. In three starts at the Florida-based superspeedway, Hocevar has finished one race, and finished 11th. The driver of the No. 77 for Spire Motorsports also has a top-10 at Talladega, and did finish runner-up in the Spring at Atlanta. Anything is possible, but if Hocevar is in contention late on Saturday... look out.
11. Ty Gibbs
It's the third season of full-time NASCAR Cup Series competition for Ty Gibbs, and the driver of the No. 54 is still looking for his first career victory. There's been a lot of difficulty for the youngster this season, and while things don't appear to be clicking very well, a victory and a postseason berth would definitely go a long way to fixing that. Gibbs only has one DNF in six starts at Daytona, but at the same time has one top-10, and has never led a lap at the racetrack.
10. John Hunter Nemechek
John Hunter Nemechek and LEGACY MOTOR CLUB have worked hard to get the speed on the No. 42 Toyota Camry XSE headed in the right direction, and they've done just that. However, to make the post-season they'll need to win at Daytona. The good news? Nemechek's sole top-five in the NASCAR Cup Series came in February's DAYTONA 500. In five starts at Daytona, Nemechek has never finished outside the top-15.
9. AJ Allmendinger
When you think of AJ Allmendinger, there's no question you think of his road course prowess. But, over the years, he's become sneaky good at the superspeedways, too. The Kaulig Racing driver has finished top-10 in six of his last eight races at Daytona, including a pair of sixth-place results in back-to-back DAYTONA 500 runs in 2023 and 2024. Don't count the driver of the No. 16 out, because while he didn't win on a road course this season (thanks Shane van Gisbergen), he might just eek out a win at Daytona.
8. Justin Haley
Justin Haley is a former winner of the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway... granted it came under the circumstances of weather. However, the Winamac, Indiana-native is no slouch when it comes to the superspeedways, winning four Xfinity Series events at Daytona and Talladega, and bringing home some solid finishes on the Cup Series side. Haley's ride could be under fire, due to some performance issues this season, so a post-season berth could be just what the doctor ordered.
7. Ryan Preece
Honestly, Ryan Preece's main objective for this weekend should just be keeping his No. 60 Ford Mustang Dark Horse on the ground. If he can do that, and keep himself in the race, then Preece should have a decent shot at contending for the victory with the speed that RFK Racing has shown on the superspeedways in the last couple of years.
Should he capture the win, Preece would be the only driver from RFK Racing in the post-season -- a mighty impressive feat considering the team was put together at the start of this season.
6. Erik Jones
Erik Jones is one of five former winners of the Coke Zero Sugar 400 currently in a must-win situation heading into the NASCAR Cup Series regular-season finale at Daytona International Speedway. The Byron, Michigan-native seems to find himself in the mix at the end of superspeedway races quite often, and LEGACY MOTOR CLUB placed two cars inside the top-five in the DAYTONA 500. The only problem, is that Jones has one top-10 in his last 12 starts at the 2.5-mile superspeedway.
5. Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch hasn't won a NASCAR Cup Series event in 82 races.
The Las Vegas, Nevada-native is heading into Saturday's event at Daytona International Speedway needing to make it to Victory Lane to get into the post-season, something that the No. 8 team didn't do last season. Busch is a former winner at Daytona (2008), and was runner-up to Harrison Burton in last August's event at the 2.5-mile superspeedway.
4. Michael McDowell
Michael McDowell is another driver, like AJ Allmendinger, who has found prowess on the superspeedways in addition to the road courses, and it's brought the Avondale, Arizona-native some great success. McDowell is the 2021 DAYTONA 500 champion and has found himself in contention many times to win at either Daytona or Talladega. McDowell may be a good bet to earn Spire Motorsports their first post-season berth in 2025.
3. Brad Keselowski
Brad Keselowski has won seven superspeedway races in the NASCAR Cup Series, six of which have been at Talladega, but lately, figuring out where the RFK Racing co-owner is going to finish is like flipping a coin. With those incredibly positive stats, comes the negative: the driver of the No. 6 Ford Mustang has failed to finish in 11 of his last 17 starts at Daytona. If things go well, Keselowski may be able to put a dismal regular-season behind him and qualify for the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
2. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
After Friday's qualifying session at Daytona, there's a legitimate shot that many will write Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. and HYAK Motorsports off, when it comes to their chance at winning on Saturday. However, Stenhouse is a beast at the superspeedways, and poor qualifying results be damned, this No. 47 Chevrolet is a bullet -- and is more than capable of winning. Stenhouse is a two-time Daytona winner, and a two-time Talladega winner in the NASCAR Cup Series... so, without a doubt, he's one to watch.
1. Chris Buescher
Chris Buescher has been strong and consistent all season long, but after Austin Dillon's win at Richmond, he finds himself in the most heartbreaking position possible -- the first driver below the cutline. Now, the No. 17 is in a must-win situation, and if history is to be trusted, it's quite possible that Buescher could be celebrating the win in Saturday's Coke Zero Sugar 400 -- something that's he's done before, in 2023. Don't forget, RFK Racing has some serious speed on these superspeedways.
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Joseph Srigley covers NASCAR for TobyChristie.com, Racing America, and OnSI, and is the owner of the #SrigleyStats brand. With a higher education in the subjects of business, mathematics, and data analytics, Joseph is able to fully understand the inner workings of the sport through multiple points of perspective.
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