ESPN’s Fever Championship Forecast Suggests Offense Can Outrun Defensive Flaws

ESPN's analytics favor the Indiana Fever to win the 2026 WNBA championship, but they'll need their offense to outpace their defense to do so.

Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark (22) dribbles the ball | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A graphic that ESPN Insights posted on Sunday shows that their analytics indicate the Indiana Fever have the best chances of winning the WNBA championship this season.

The Fever had the best odds to win the 2026 title, at 24%. Right behind them were the Las Vegas Aces at 23%, then the Minnesota Lynx at 16%, then the New York Liberty at 15%, and then the Atlanta Dream took the fifth-highest spot at 13%.

Crunch time in the W!

Entering the second half, ESPN Analytics has the league chasing the highest scoring team in Indiana and the reigning champs Las Vegas; giving those two the best chances to win the title this season 🏀 pic.twitter.com/63iyAGvUBp

— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) July 26, 2026

This stat is fascinating for several reasons. While there's no question that Indiana has a talented enough roster to win a title this season, they're currently fifth in the league standings. Therefore, the analytics suggest they're poised for a major run like the one they had last season.

But perhaps even more interesting than that is how this forecast suggests the Fever's historically good offense will be able to overcome their defensive issues enough to hoist a trophy at the season's end.

Fever's Offense Must Overcome Defensive Shortcomings to Win Championship

The Fever are averaging 95.5 points per game to this point in the season. That would be the highest points per game in league history, beating the 93.9 points per game that the 2010 Phoenix Mercury produced.

While the Fever's offense is on pace to break records, the same can't be said for their defense. They've given up 89.6 points per game this year, which is the fifth-worst in the league.

A lot of Indiana's defensive struggles manifest all at once, as shown by the staggering nine games where the Fever have conceded 100 points or more this season. One more 100-point game against them will set a new WNBA record for amount of times that has happened to a team.

Indiana's elite offense can overcome these brutal defensive showings, which are usually owed to mental lapses, too many fouls, and points off turnovers. Yet, this will be harder to do in the postseason, when the teams are better and every game in a series is crucial. Not to mention that, as the adage goes, defense wins championships.

The Fever are on a quest to prove that adage isn't always true, and this ESPN stat suggests they're capable of doing so. Of course, their defense can (and likely will) improve as the season progresses. But it wouldn't be surprising to see them needing to outscore their defense constantly in the playoffs if they're to win a championship.

With the trio of Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell, and Aliyah Boston combining for over 60 points per game, it's hard to put it past them.