Breaking Down the Indiana Fever’s Potential Playoff Matchups

With the Fever locked into the No. 6 or 7 seed, a first-round battle with the Dream or Aces is all but certain.
Indiana Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell (0) smiles after a play Thursday, July 3, 2025, during a game between the Indiana Fever and the Las Vegas Aces at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
Indiana Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell (0) smiles after a play Thursday, July 3, 2025, during a game between the Indiana Fever and the Las Vegas Aces at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. | Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Indiana Fever punched their ticket to the postseason after a dominant 94-65 win over the Washington Mystics Sunday, which placed them as the No. 7 seed in the standings.Thanks to a tiebreaker over the Seattle Storm, they’re locked into either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed. 

Sunday’s win against the Washington Mystics eliminated a first-round matchup in the playoffs with the No. 1 Minnesota Lynx and with only a few games left to play in the regular season, Indiana’s possible matchups include the Las Vegas Aces, The Atlanta Dream or the Phoenix Mercury. The Aces and the Dream do have an advantage of finishing second and third over the Mercury though, making a first-round meeting against Phoenix less likely for the Fever.

Should the Fever maintain their position at No. 7, the Aces seem to be the most likely matchup for Indiana in the first round, as their remaining opponents sit low in the standings, giving Vegas the edge to come out as the No. 2 seed. And while it’s possible for Indiana to finish at No. 6, to get there, they would have to beat the Lynx in the final in-season game, which is a tall order.

Indiana Fever's Likely Matchups for the 2025 WNBA Playoffs

Aliyah Boston
Indiana Fever forward Aliyah Boston (7) celebrates a three-point basket Thursday, July 24, 2025, during the game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

1. The Las Vegas Aces

A'ja
Sep 7, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson (22) competes against the Chicago Sky during the first half of a WNBA basketball game at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images | Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

The Fever lead the series against Las Vegas 2-1, But that was before the Lynx handed the Aces a 111-58 beatdown where Vegas superstar A’ja Wilson was quoted as saying, "If you weren't embarrassed from yesterday, then don't come into this gym. You're not needed or wanted here," which served as a reality check, while simultaneously sparking a dramatic turnaround for the Aces. 

Wilson’s words seemed to have sent shockwaves through to her teammates and since, the Aces went on a meteoric 14 game winning streak — tied for the fourth-longest streak in league history.  

So while the Aces looked mortal early in the season, this team has found another gear. But Indiana have toppled them before, even without their superstar Caitlin Clark on the court. But they will have to lock-in and dig deep to overcome the challenge the Aces pose.

2. The Atlanta Dream

Allisha Gray
Aug 13, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Atlanta Dream guard Allisha Gray (15) celebrates with guard Rhyne Howard (10) following a victory against the Seattle Storm at Climate Pledge Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images | Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Should the Aces lose one of their remaining games and Atlanta come out the winners of theirs, Indiana could face off against the Dream in the first-round of playoffs — and that is no cakewalk either. 

Atlanta is a threat at the perimeter with the sharpshooting of Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard, but also deadly inside the paint with Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner posted under the basket. 

With first-year head coach Karl Smesko at the helm, Atlanta transformed from  a team who struggled to make the playoffs in 2024, to a force to be reckoned with, holding a top spot throughout the 2025 season.

Indiana does hold the series lead with Atlanta though, winning 2-1, making a win in a playoff series within reach for the Fever.

The Indiana Fever Will Get a Chance to Host a Playoff Game At Home

Lexie Hull
Indiana Fever guard Lexie Hull (10) and Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark (22) smile from the bench Friday, Sept. 5, 2025, during a game between the Indiana Fever and the Chicago Sky at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Indiana Fever defeated the Chicago Sky, 97-77. | Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The playoffs begin Sunday, September 14 with round one being a best-of-three game series. The format has changed this season to include each team getting a chance to showcase a playoff game at home. The higher seed will host Game 1, while the lower seed gets Game 2, unlike last season where the Fever never got to bring a playoff contest to Indiana after going down in the first two games to the Connecticut Sun on their turf. 

For the Fever, this playoff berth is already a big W. After a domino effect of injuries and a revolving door of hardship players entering the rotation, Indiana fought tooth and nail against the odds to prove that they are not a team to be counted out.

And though they will not be heading into the playoffs with their franchise cornerstone Caitlin Clark, she will undoubtedly be cheering on her teammates on from the sidelines — and maybe giving the refs a piece of her mind — as she has for nearly every game she has not been able to suit up for throughout the season.

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Rosalina Lee
ROSALINA LEE

Rosalina Lee is one of the premiere content creators in the women’s basketball space. She has written for such companies as Red Bull Sports and has teamed up with notable brands such as Madison Square Garden, going behind the scenes with the New York Knicks and Rangers. She is currently offering analysis and fresh takes into the world of women’s basketball on her YouTube channel, and now with Indiana Fever On SI and Women's Fastbreak On SI, keeping fans in the loop with all the latest action!

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