Minnesota Lynx On SI

A'ja Wilson, Napheesa Collier WNBA MVP Odds Change Drastically After Aces-Lynx

The MVP race just got significantly closer according to new odds.

Grant Mona

Jul 25, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson (22) shoots against the Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier (24) in the third quarter at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
Jul 25, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson (22) shoots against the Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier (24) in the third quarter at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

The 2025 WNBA MVP race has heated up as the regular season winds down. With the Las Vegas Aces on an enormous hot streak and the Minnesota Lynx still in the top spot in the Western Conference, both A'ja Wilson and Napheesa Collier have been the talk of the league.

The Lynx faced off against the Aces recently, and Las Vegas defeated Minnesota, pushing them into the second spot in the entire WNBA behind the play of their MVP candidate, A'ja Wilson.

While the Aces won't be catching the Lynx as Minnesota holds a five-game cushion atop the WNBA, it was a statement made by Wilson, and oddsmakers saw it too.

A Significant Shift in Odds

According to our own Will Despart, odds have significantly shifted after Wilson's dominant performance against the Lynx.

"Caesars (-120) and FanDuel (-136) each have A’ja Wilson listed as the odds-on favorite to win her fourth MVP award this morning after her 31-point performance in last night’s win over Napheesa Collier and the Minnesota Lynx," he said.

Collier missed seven games in early August with a right ankle sprain, just as the Aces were beginning their winning streak, and Minnesota went 6-1 in her absence, which could have been a factor before Wilson's 31-point masterclass.

While the Lynx have the best record in the league and clinched the top seed, the Ace's remarkable turnaound has made a compelling case for Wilson.

Head-to-Head Performance

The biggest factor for the significant turnaround in odds was the recent game on September 4th. While Wilson had a dominant 31 points, Collier was thoroughly outplayed.

She was held to only 12 points on 5-of-13 shooting, while Wilson grabbed eight rebounds and was 12-of-15 shooting.

An individual performance late in the season such as this one could mean a shift in voters' eyes.

Sure, the Lynx have been the best team in the WNBA all season, but momentum and recency bias are certainly factors.

Does this mean that Collier is eliminated from the race? No, in fact, she still has a strong one, averaging 23.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per game on 53 percent from the field and 90.4 percent from the free-throw line.

In her last ten games, she is still averaging 22.8 points and 7.3 rebounds per game, making her neck-and-neck with the now surging A'ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces.

One thing is for sure: we are headed for a battle in the playoffs as well.

  • Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
  • If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Related Articles

• Cheryl Reeve Makes Feelings Clear on Paige Bueckers After Wings Game

• Lynx Coach Announces DiJonai Carrington Injury Update After Wings Game

• Paige Bueckers Makes Heartfelt DiJonai Carrington Statement After Lynx-Wings

Published |Modified
Grant Mona
GRANT MONA

Grant Mona is a multimedia sports journalist based in Los Angeles, covering multiple teams. He is a co-host and producer on The Sporting Tribune Today on The BET Las Vegas, KIRN 670 in Southern California and the Hawaii Sports Radio Network. He formerly played baseball with the University of the Pacific Tigers.

Home/News