#6 Penn State vs. Northwestern Prediction, NCAAF Picks & Odds: Sat, 9/30
Dan Rainville/USA Today Sports
We are now well into the 2023 CFB regular season, and various programs can contend in the College Football Playoffs. Penn State undoubtedly has its eyes set on a CFB appearance, as they’ve never qualified for the four-team playoff since its inception in 2014. However, James Franklin has a team that’s ready as ever to break the doors down, and they can not slip up, especially in this weekend’s matchup against the Northwestern Wildcats.
In this article, I’ll give you my Penn State vs. Northwestern prediction, which you can fade or follow at FanDuel Sportsbook. I’ve gone 3-0 in my Penn State picks against West Virginia, Illinois and Iowa, so you’re going to want to use my best bet to unlock a $200 new-user bonus at FanDuel.
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PENN STATE VS. NORTHWESTERN PREDICTION: Under 46.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
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Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Northwestern Wildcats Prediction: CFB This Week
The PSU Nittany Lions will travel to Evanston, Illinois for a Saturday noon kickoff against the Northwestern Wildcats. These are two programs on different wavelengths, as the Wildcats had an ugly offseason involving off-the-field issues, while the Nittany Lions look poised to make a CFB push. This has shown on the field, as the Nittany Lions moved to 4-0 last week (and 4-0 against the spread) with a shutout win against the Iowa Hawkeyes. On the other hand, NW got an overtime win against Minnesota, but the Golden Gophers are just 2-2 this season and fell to #15 UNC 31-13.
QB Drew Allar looks like the real deal, as the Sophomore QB has 903 passing yards, eight passing TDs and zero interceptions through four games. He’s looked extremely poised in the pocket, and it’s hard to picture this Northwestern defense causing him too many issues. However, this is still just his second road Big Ten contest, and it took Allar a few quarters to get comfortable at Illinois two weeks ago.
The Nittany Lions should have no issues relying on their defense until the offense gets going, as they’ve given up just 13 points in two Big Ten matchups. They’re allowing the fourth-fewest points per game in the country (8.8) and lead the nation in total yards allowed per game (219.5). Additionally, they give up just 142.0 passing yards per contest (second in the country), and 70.9% of NW’s offense has come in their passing game. We’d be surprised if the Nittany Lions allow 10+ points to the Wildcats this weekend.
Penn State vs. Northwestern Picks & CFB Best Bets for Saturday Including Under 46.5
We expect a run-heavy approach for Penn State, as their offensive line should be able to win the battle in the trenches. The problem for the Wildcats is that they currently allow 184.5 rushing yards per game (107th in the country). For reference, Illinois allows 177.3 YPG on the ground (100th in the country), and the Nittany Lions (175.0 rushing YPG) wore down the Fighting Illini over four quarters. Rutgers (177.3 rushing YPG) and Duke (180.3 rushing YPG) combined for 390 yards on the ground in their wins against the Wildcats, and we anticipate more of the same from the Nittany Lions this Saturday.
Although Northwestern scored 37 against Minnesota, they managed to put up just 7 and 14 points against Rutgers and Duke. Penn State’s defense will be the best unit they’ve faced all season, and we think the Wildcats will have an extremely difficult time scoring. Additionally, a run-heavy approach from the Nittany Lions means time will tick off the clock, and we think PSU will score between 28-35 points. Again, we don’t foresee NW scoring 10+, so a 31-10 or 35-10 score seems completely reasonable.
Penn State has scored 30+ every game this season, and while we think that can continue, we wouldn’t be surprised if Franklin saves some of his offensive play calling for their game against Ohio State in two weeks. Therefore, expect the Nittany Lions to wear the Wildcats down over four quarters, and my main Penn State vs. Northwestern prediction is for there to be Under 46.5 points (-115 at FanDuel).
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Latest Penn State vs. Northwestern Betting Lines, Odds & Spread for 9/30 Presented by FanDuel
The first thing I reviewed before making my Penn State vs. Northwestern prediction were the various betting markets available at FanDuel Sportsbook, which you can see here:
- Point Spread: Penn State -26.5 (-110) vs. Northwestern +26.5 (-110)
- Money Line: Penn State (-4000) vs. Northwestern (+1400)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 46.5 (-105) vs. Under 46.5 (-115)
A $115 bet on Under 46.5 (-115 at FanDuel) profits $100 if there are 46 points or less, while a $105 wager on Over 46.5 (-105 at FanDuel) returns $100 of winnings if the teams combine for 47+ points.
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Iowa vs. Penn State Score Last Week
Penn State dominated Iowa in front of a White Out crowd last Saturday night, as the Nittany Lions won the contest 31-0. As I said earlier, I was all over Penn State -13.5 against Iowa, so make sure you use my Penn State vs. Northwestern prediction to unlock your $200 FanDuel welcome bonus.
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