#10 North Carolina vs. Virginia Prediction, Picks & Betting Odds Today
At 4 PM ET on ESPN this afternoon, a battle between two of the ACC’s top three men’s basketball teams gather at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Virginia. The #10 North Carolina Tar Heels (20-6, 12-3 in ACC play) visit the Virginia Cavaliers (20-7, 11-5 in ACC play). After a blazing 9-0 start to conference play, North Carolina has coasted into auto pilot since January 30th, alternating between wins and losses, going 3-3 in their last six. Perhaps a true road test against a formidable defense is needed to reignite their flame, and that aspect factors into my thorough #10 North Carolina vs. Virginia prediction in the contents below.
Beyond a game preview and analysis, my #10 North Carolina vs. Virginia prediction settles on a couple of North Carolina vs. Virginia picks to fuel your betting needs, with North Carolina vs. Virginia odds powered by FanDuel Sportsbook. If you are new to FanDuel, you can pair one of my North Carolina vs. Virginia picks with the $150 FanDuel sign-up bonus!
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NORTH CAROLINA VS. VIRGINIA PREDICTION: North Carolina -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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North Carolina vs. Virginia Prediction for Today's College Basketball Game on ESPN
Before we take a deep dive into the matchup advantages and disadvantages concerning my on-court expectations for this game, let’s kick off the analysis surrounding my North Carolina vs. Virginia picks with some intel on the recent head-to-head history and the latest betting trends involving these squads.
The Tar Heels are 14-11-1 against the spread this season and 13-13 on Over/Under, but 4-5-1 ATS and 4-6 O/U in their last 10. Virginia, on the other hand, is 14-12-1 ATS and 11-16 on O/U, including 5-4-1 ATS and 5-5 O/U in their last 10.
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, UNC is just 3-7 overall (0-5 at Virginia), 3-7 ATS, and the O/U is 3-6-1 in that stretch. In the last six meetings, the under has hit four times and the total has pushed once. John Paul Jones Arena has been a house of horrors for the typically high-flying Tar Heel offense, as UNC has failed to eclipse 59 points each of their last four trips.
North Carolina hasn’t played since last Saturday, when they defeated Virginia Tech at home, 96-81. While the win was dominant, UNC has now surrendered 80+ points in four-of-five February outings, after going nine straight games in January surrendering no more than 74 points.
Meanwhile, Virginia last played on Monday at Virginia Tech, and got their doors blown off, losing 75-41. After surprising with an 80-point output at Florida State on February 10th, Virginia has gone cold scoring the last three games, totaling 63 points in a home loss to Pittsburgh, 49 points in a rock fight win over Wake Forest, and 41 points at Virginia Tech.
North Carolina has not been favored on the road at Virginia in any of the last five meetings at UVA, and they have failed to cover in every instance. Today, however, they are favored to win. North Carolina has been playing high-scoring games recently, but Virginia has forced defensive-minded, lower-scoring battles recently. Neither team has played particularly well as of late, but this is a game each team can get up for.
Will the Tar Heels overturn the recent history in Charlottesville? Who will dictate the pace of the game? I answer these two questions and more in the next section, before arriving at the best bets, encompassing my #10 North Carolina vs. Virginia prediction.
North Carolina vs. Virginia Picks & Best Bets Featuring UNC -2.5
Let’s begin my North Carolina vs. Virginia picks with the North Carolina vs. Virginia spread. While both teams sit with 20 wins and eye the ACC regular season title, UNC is and has been the better team all season long. Whether you want to use the eye test, efficiency analytics or strength of schedule, we reach the same conclusion.
The Virginia defense, which is always up to snuff under head coach Tony Bennett, is yet again one of the best in the country, although they lack the athleticism and rim protection that typically makes them impenetrable. Unfortunately for the Cavaliers, this Tar Heel defense can match them, as it's been one of the best defensive groups UNC has owned in the last couple of seasons.
The drastic difference comes on the offensive end of the floor, where North Carolina gets first-team All-American production from RJ Davis and a variety of supporting scoring, notably in the frontcourt, from Harrison Ingram and Armando Bacot. The 35.6% UNC possesses from beyond the arc is solid and will be a crucial aspect against the patented UVA pack-line defense, which forces opponents to convert from long range – good news for Davis’ 41%.
Alongside Davis knocking down triples, North Carolina owns a severe rebounding advantage with a deep frontcourt unit that can bully this smaller UVA team on both ends of the floor. Even if UNC misses some threes, there should be plenty of second-chance point opportunities.
In Davis and Bacot’s final trip to Charlottesville, look for UNC to cover -2.5 (-104 at FanDuel Sportsbook).
When it comes to the game total and pace-of-play, I like the recent history of lower-scoring games in this matchup to continue. UNC games have been nothing but high-scoring lately, but their defense is legit and will show up in a big game against an offensively-challenged group. The Tar Heels like to get out and run, but Virginia’s methodical pace on both sides of the ball should control the tempo in their building.
Take Under 130.5 Total Points (-110 at FanDuel) to complete my #10 North Carolina vs. Virginia prediction.
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North Carolina vs. Virginia Betting Odds, Lines & Spreads at FanDuel Sportsbook
Here, find the North Carolina vs. Virginia odds tied to the traditional betting markets at FanDuel Sportsbook:
- Point Spread: North Carolina -2.5 (-104) vs. Virginia +2.5 (-118)
- Money Line: North Carolina (-130) vs. Virginia (+108)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 130.5 (-110) / Under 130.5 (-110)
A $104 bet is required to profit $100 on my #10 North Carolina vs. Virginia spread prediction: UNC -2.5 (-104). The bet cashes if UNC wins by three points or more. A $110 bet is required to profit $100 on the Under, and that bet hits if the two teams combine for 130 points or less.
Probable Lineups for North Carolina vs. Virginia Today, 2/24
UNC:
- Elliot Cadeau
- RJ Davis
- Cormac Ryan
- Harrison Ingram
- Armando Bacot
UVA:
- Reece Beekman
- Isaac McKneely
- Andrew Rohde
- Ryan Dunn
- Jordan Minor
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