Virginia Playing With Confidence Entering Critical Final Week of Regular Season
For the first time in 15 years, Virginia women's basketball has vanquished three ranked opponents in a single season. The most recent, a gritty 73-68 road win at then-No. 20 Louisville on Sunday has the Cavaliers peaking at the right time and suddenly, looking at a slim, but still viable path to the NCAA Tournament entering the final week of the regular season.
Since suffering a six-point loss to Clemson on February 4th, a defeat that dropped UVA's overall record to 10-12, Virginia has won four of its last five games, including each of its last three road games. If the Cavaliers are to keep their momentum going and give the NCAA Tournament selection committee something to think about on Selection Sunday, they'll have to win another tough road game at Duke on Thursday at 7pm or take down in-state rival and No. 5-ranked Virginia Tech in the regular season finale on Sunday at 6pm in Charlottesville - preferably both.
Both games will be immensely challenging and UVA won't be favored to win either. But the Cavaliers have a couple of things going for them thanks to their recent strong play: confidence and momentum.
"For sure, it gives us confidence. I like that we're peaking at the right time and we're coming together. We're just playing with joy and playing together," Coach Mox said of Virginia's recent success. "I think we have a lot of confidence right now, but at the same time, we got to stay focused. At any given time, any team in this conference can beat any team and I truly believe that and we've seen that through the course of our season."
There were many moments this season when it seemed like the Cavaliers would never hit their stride and find their best basketball, as was the case the first time UVA faced Duke back on January 7th, a 60-56 win for the Blue Devils in Charlottesville. That was one of six-straight losses Virginia suffered to begin ACC play. But since that brutal start, the Cavaliers have recovered to win six of their last ten, including four wins on the road and three victories over ranked opponents.
"At the core of it, it is just resiliency," said Coach Mox. "Our players, they never stopped believing. They never stopped trusting the process. They've stayed in the fight, they stayed committed to their grind. They live in the gym, working on their individual craft, watching more film, just wanting to get better."
That resiliency has given the Cavaliers an outside shot at a goal that seemed utterly impossibly just a few short weeks ago. At 14-13 overall, Virginia's record doesn't exactly scream NCAA Tournament, but a quick look into the numbers tells us that the Hoos are much closer than you might think.
Virginia is currently ranked No. 62 in the NET rankings. For some context, St. John's earned one of the last at-large bids to the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament last season with a NET ranking of 55. Virginia is 3-9 in Quad 1 games, with those three wins coming at Florida State, at home against North Carolina, and at Louisville last Sunday. But holding the Cavaliers back, and likely ultimately keeping them out of the tournament, are Quad 3 losses to Pittsburgh and Clemson (both at home) and a brutal Quad 4 home loss to Wofford back on December 16th.
To say that the Cavaliers have come a long way since then would be a massive understatement. The team that lost to Wofford on a buzzer-beater and then lost six-straight games to start conference play is not the same one that just rattled off four wins in the last five games.
"It gives you a little bit of confidence. It gives you a little bit more hope and focus and want-to because now you've seen some of your hard work pay off. And so I think our players are having a little bit of that and it's like they're excited for the next game," Coach Mox said. "We've had a good stretch right now. There's two games left in the regular season before the ACC Tournament and we need to finish strong."
The Cavaliers' mission to "finish strong" will take them through another gauntlet, with games at Duke (NET 20) and then at home against Virginia Tech (NET 14) before heading to Greensboro for the ACC Tournament next week. Those challenges also present huge opportunities for Virginia to significantly boost its resume just as the calendar turns to March. If the Cavaliers can manage to win even one of its next two games and then pick off a game or two in the ACC Tournament, they'll make things just a little bit interesting come Selection Sunday.
But no matter how this season ends, it cannot be overstated how much this Virginia women's basketball team and program as a whole has progressed in less than two years under Coach Mox. Perhaps the team will take some time to appreciate that growth in the offseason, but for now, the Cavaliers are focused on making this season last as long as possible.
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