Game Preview: 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Needing to win out to secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs, the 49ers travel to Arizona where they are 12.5-point favorites over the Cardinals.
With injuries accumulating in Week 15, the Niners could be out at least four starters in this game. Arizona will be looking to run while Arik Armstead, Javin Hargrave, and Oren Burks are out. The 49ers run defense will be tested by Cardinals running back James Conner and quarterback Kyler Murray.
Aaron Banks wasn’t able to practice Friday and Spencer Burford was limited. Dre Greenlaw and Charvarius Ward are questionable. Rookie linebackers Dee Winters and Jalen Graham should see some time this week. With Mitchell down, Jordan Mason will get carries, and likely a chance to ice the game late.
For the Cardinals, wide receiver Marquise Brown is questionable, he was limited in practice this week.
WHEN ARIZONA HAS THE BALL
The 49ers’ containment rush tactic developed by Steve Wilks over the past few weeks will face one of the league’s fastest quarterbacks in Murray. Kyler gives the Niners a proof-of-concept test to potentially apply to next week’s matchup against Lamar Jackson.
As a young rebuilding team, Arizona only has a few strengths to build from, on offense that’s a stout offensive line. Top draft pick Paris Johnson will face Nick Bosa in a battle of Buckeyes.
The Cards will attack with Conner up the middle. The Niners’ Javon Kinlaw has played the best football of his career lately and will be relied upon with so many starters out.
Conner ran for over 100 yards last week against Pittsburgh. He gets 70% of his 631 yards before contact, speaking to the power of the Arizona offensive line and that Conner isn’t a significant breakaway threat, he has a long of 35.
The Cards are tied with the Niners for fourth in the league at 4.7 yards per carry.
The passing attack is struggling. Trey McBride is the leading receiver with 56 catches for 610 yards. With his first catch in the game, McBride will set a new franchise record for receptions by a tight end, passing recently waived Zach Ertz.
The wide receivers have not stood out this year and many are banged up heading into this game. Arizona has converted to a West Coast offense and lacks the pieces to make it work. Murray has the arm and his receivers the speed to land some explosive plays, but the Cards have not been able to challenge defenses consistently.
The Cardinals’ game plan is straightforward, smash-mouth football and enough passing and scrambling to test the depleted Niners defense. The injuries on the defensive interior will require the Niners to be cohesive at all three levels.
WHEN THE NINERS HAVE THE BALL
More of the same. Optimize Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel while distributing the ball to all of the Niner weapons.
Former All-Pro safety Budda Baker is back for Arizona, but he doesn’t have much help. The Niners win matchups at nearly all positions. Baker could limit George Kittle, but the Cards will struggle to stop the rest of the 49ers offense.
Arizona ranks 8th in the league against both the run and the pass. They play sound football, and play hard, but lack the dominant pieces that win matchups and games.
This game is more of an internal challenge for the Niners to maintain a high level of play and clean execution. Get the win, get rest, and gear up for Baltimore.
STAT OF THE GAME
Arizona’s rushing yards. Limit that and the Niners are in good shape for the win, but that’s harder to do without Armstead and Hargrave and against a solid offensive line.
PREDICTION (My record 9-4)
The Niners run defense is the story, can they get the necessary stops on the early downs without Armstead and Hargrave? Javon Kinlaw will be key today.
I think Arizona will have some success early running the ball but the Niners figure it out and the Cardinals begin to struggle to move the sticks. That creates an opportunity for the Niners to separate and take the run away as an option.
Murray is a threat to go deep, up to his receivers to deliver on it, and a growing confidence in the Niner secondary to stop it.
Brock Purdy and the Niner offense should have their way from the opening drive on.
49ers 31 Arizona 17
