How to Cash in on Bears and Lions
Fantasy football owners everywhere rejoice.
Justin Fields is back.
It's been a while, though. Some may have moved on to other quarterbacks who have teams more efficient than the Bears, teams whose quarterbacks throw for a big completion and don't see the play walked back because of a penalty. The Bears have had 31 of these flags in the last four games to 10 for opponents. This is definitely something to consider when opting to use Fields.
Fields' big gainers have been sorely missed by an offense that was making smaller gains under quarterback Tyson Bagent, but looked even less efficient because of turnovers and penalties.
So at this point in the season is it even worthwhile to put Fields back into the lineup?
Unless Fields loses his chief target, DJ Moore, or a few of the starting offensive linemen are injured, then it definitely is worth having him on the field.
Fields had two 100-yard rushing games against the Lions last year. He has games coming up against the Cardinals, Falcons and Packers. None of those teams impress anyone.
He finally has the full offensive line in front of him after injuries.
It's impossible for Fields to make up the fantasy ground lost but he can finish with a fury and probably needs to in order to insure his future in Chicago.
SI.com fantasy expert Michael Fabiano puts him 11th among fantasy QBs at the moment, although that list includes Joe Burrow and he's not going to help anyone any time soon.
It's possible Fields could be a little more reluctant to run if he thinks he can't protect his thumb, but he said at Halas Hall this week he wouldn't be playing if this was the case.
Just as important this week is the Lions' only two losses came against mobile quarterbacks who allowed their teams to run the ball and control the clock, keeping an explosive Detroit offense off the field.
Fields is undersold at No. 11 for this week and could be ready to explode after weeks of inactivity.
Here's who to sit and start in Sunday's Bears and Lions game for fantasy owners.
Start 'Em
1. Bears QB Justin Fields
When he played the Lions in a 41-10 rout last year, he didn't have DJ Moore and didn't even have Darnell Mooney. He did have the helmet thrower, Chase Claypool. So that's three positives in this game working for Fields that he didn't have. Earlier last season, he led the Bears to 30 points in a loss cause, in part, by a missed PAT. Fields' first win in the NFL came against the Lions. He has thrown three TD passes and rushed for 288 yards against Detroit and has said he likes playing on artificial turf better than grass.
2. Lions QB Jared Goff
The only team to keep Goff from throwing for a TD this year was Baltimore in a 38-6 Ravens win. He's been at 66.7% completions in all but one game this season. He is consistency and is in sync with all of his receivers. The Bears controlled Goff the first two times they played him because of their pass rush. They've improved since Montez Sweat joined the team but still rank last in sacks and Goff is a QB who needs to be sacked on occasion to get him off his mark. He has thrown for 69.7% completions or better in four of his last five games against the Bears and for 10 TDs in those games.
3. Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs
This can be the worst nightmare for the Bears as a threat coming out of the backfield or getting into the open field. Gibbs has speed and surprising power for a smaller back (200 pounds). He is exactly the kind of back who gives them problems. Austin Ekeler and Alvin Kamara did this, as well. Gibbs has 31 catches in addition to being just 25 yards out of the Lions rushing lead.
4. Lions RB David Montgomery
The only issue here is whether Montgomery will be too keyed up to face his old team. Just like with Gibbs, he can get into the scoring column in many ways and cause the Bears problems. Detroit's receiving corps isn't the league's best but when you complement them with two backs who can catch passes and turn it upfield, then you've got a fantasy owner's dream.
5. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
Equanimeous' brother has 39 catches in his last four games and went over 100 yards in each of those games. He's been over 100 yards in six of eight games he played this year. The Bears haven't been particularly vulnerable to St. Brown with six caches or less in three of his four games. He did have a 10-catch, 119-yard effort against them last season at Soldier Field.
6. Lions TE Sam LaPorta
He is averaging over 10 fantasy points a game and has been particularly effective on third downs. The Bears normally would be well equipped to handle covering a tight end with linebacker Tremaine Edmunds in coverage but he is nursing a knee injury and may not even play. Also, safety Jaquan Brisker could draw LaPorta in some coverage and he has been inconsistent.
7. Bears WR DJ Moore
He should be happy to have Justin Fields back. He hasn't been able to get passes thrown to him downfield since Fields left and has had only a high of 58 yards receiving since the Washington game when he had 230 yards with Fields at QB.
8. Bears RB D'Onta Foreman
The Lions will remember him well for a 168-yard career-best game he laid on their defense in last year's key loss to Carolina. Foreman didn't have a complete practice this week as he tries to play through an ankle injury, so it could slow him.
9. Bears TE Cole Kmet
Of his 14 career TD catches, four came against the Lions. Detroit's linebackers are adept at limiting gains but not necessarily and preventing catches. Kmet has hit his stride in the last three games with 21 catches for 179 yards and two TDs.
10. Lions WR Josh Reynolds
Against the Bears, Reynolds has 14 catches for 218 yards, a 15.6-yard average, with two TDs. So he becomes a bigger-play threat. He's one of the players who burns defenses when they tend to overemphasize stopping St. Brown or the backs. He might be a small role player, but he's going to come up with a few big plays against the Bears. He always seems to do it.
Sit 'Em'
1. Bears RB Khalil Herbert
Very much a momentum type player, Herbert hasn't done well when he's been away from the field in various stretches during his career. And now he's coming back from a stay on IR since Oct. 5. Last year he returned from four weeks away due to injury and had a six-carry, 7-yard effort. As a rookie, he built up some momentum with 344 yards in four weeks replacing injured Montgomery, then got fewer carries and didn't manage more than 21 yards in a game the rest of the season. So it's best to wait on Herbert.
2. Bears WR Darnell Mooney
He's a receiver who should benefit greatly from Fields' return because of their past connections, but he had only nine catches in 5 1/2 games before Fields got injured. So something seems to be missing that needs to be ignited again.
3. Lions WR Jameson Williams
A real dangerous speed threat in college and someone who should be able to stretch the Bears defense, but he hasn't yet worked into the Lions offense well and has only eight catches. He needs more time to develop.
Defense
The Lions defense is good at stopping the run and so are the Bears. Neither one can put it all together, so there is no reason to think of either in this game for a team answer in a standard league. This could turn out like the Lions-Bears game in Soldier Field last year, 31-30, if the Bears can avoid committing too many dumb penalties and turnovers.
Aidan Hutchinson hasn't had a great second season in terms of actual sacks, but he has been getting the pressure and this is important. However, it's not what drives fantasy defense and this game he'll be facing Bears right tackle Darnell Wright, who has been better than solid as a rookie blocker. So it's best to avoid him or any player on defense in what could turn into a shootout.
The Betting Window
Of note: After going 9-1 in two weeks on best bets, the action slowed with a .500 week at 2-2-1 ATS, which makes it 11-3-1 in the last three weeks ATS. We'll look to rekindle the heat this week.
The Line: Lions by 7 1/2 (Over/under 47 1/2)
BearDigest Pick: Lions 31, Bears 17
BearDigest Record: 6-4 overall, 5-5 ATS, 4-6 over/under
NFL Best Bets
Record: 25-18-2
Last Week: 2-2-1
Week 11 Best Bets:
- 49ers -11 1/2 vs. Buccaneers
- Broncos -2 vs. Vikings
- Bills -7 1/2 vs. Jets
- Buccaneers at 49ers under 41 1/2
- Seahawks at Rams under 46
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
