Should Seahawks Move to Extend WR Tyler Lockett Early?
Since the start of the 2018 season, only five NFL players have produced at least 2,000 receiving yards and 18 receiving touchdowns. It's a star-studded group headlined by record-breaking Saints receiver Michael Thomas, newly-acquired Cardinals receiver DeAndre Hopkins, electric Chiefs play maker Tyreek Hill, and reliable Packers target Davante Adams.
Each of those four players rank among the 12 highest-paid receivers in the league, with Thomas and Hill earning at least $18 million per year. Arizona will likely explore a new contract for Hopkins, who currently earns $16.2 million per year, while Adams makes $14.5 million per year.
The vast majority of this exclusive club of receivers shouldn't come as a surprise and they are paid accordingly. But the fifth receiver on the list, Seahawks standout Tyler Lockett, continues to perform at an elite level under the radar in the Pacific Northwest and has more than earned a raise.
As one of the NFL's best bargains making less than $11 million per year, should Seattle consider offering Lockett an early extension?
Why Seattle Should Extend Lockett Now
Playing in an offense still predicated on running the football at a high frequency, Lockett doesn't receive the same amount of targets as superstars such as Thomas and Hopkins. In fact, while all four other receivers received at least 226 targets over the past two seasons, he was targeted a mere 180 times during that span.
Making the most of his opportunities, however, Lockett posted a 77.2 percent catch rate, second behind only Thomas among receivers with 100 or more receptions over the past two seasons. Setting a new standard for efficiency, quarterback Russell Wilson posted a perfect 158.3 passer rating targeting his top receiver in 2018, as the duo connected 57 times on just 70 targets for 965 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Looking back at last year specifically, according to Nick Shook of NFL.com, Lockett ranked second behind Thomas in pass-catcher catch rate in 2019. He posted a catch rate nearly 13 percent higher than his expected catch rate per Next Gen Stats, illustrating the difficulty of some of the receptions he managed to haul in, including his impossible touchdown grab against the Rams in Week 5.
Coming off a season in which he produced career-highs in receptions and surpassed 1,000 yards for the first time, Lockett has evolved into one of the league's premier pass catchers and a true No. 1 receiver in Seattle. He's increased his reception totals four straight seasons and set to turn 28 in September, he still has plenty of areas to improve in his game.
Assuming he notches 1,000 yards again in 2020, Lockett's price tag will only continue to climb as he nears the end of his current contract and striking a deal now could save the Seahawks a bit of money down the road.
Why Seattle Could Wait to Extend Lockett
Historically, general manager John Schneider hasn't been willing to consider extensions until players had one year remaining on their current deal. There have been few exceptions, though running back Marshawn Lynch did have his contract restructured in 2014 with two years left on his deal.
If Schneider decided to extend Lockett's deal and increase his pay, it would set a precedent for other players on the roster who wanted a raise and still had multiple years left under contract, creating a climate for future holdouts. It could also send a mixed message to players such as Shaquill Griffin and Chris Carson who will be free agents next March and will be seeking lucrative extensions of their own.
Considering the team's offensive scheme remains run-centric, the Seahawks might not be keen on the idea of paying Lockett top receiver money in the $15-plus million per year range. This will be especially true if the salary cap drops next year due to complications from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Though he's played in all but one game in his five-year NFL career, Lockett has had several injuries in his career, including a broken leg suffered in 2016. At 5-foot-10, 182 pounds, there may be some concerns about his durability and as he approaches his 30th birthday, the franchise may be hesitant to make an expensive long-term commitment.
How Should the Seahawks Proceed?
Schneider's rationale for avoiding contract negotiations until a player has one year remaining on his current deal makes a ton of sense. He wants to avoid other players pushing for a new contract early, though Seattle doesn't have many veterans under contract past 2020 anyway.
If the Seahawks choose to wait per usual, Lockett will still earn a base salary of $8.5 million in 2020 and $9.8 million in 2021 and likely isn't a candidate to hold out. The organization could easily stand firm until next offseason when hopefully the pandemic has subsided and he has just one year left on his deal before starting negotiations.
But if there's a player who has rightfully earned a restructured deal with two years left on his contract, it has to be Lockett, who has been the consummate Seahawk since being drafted in the third round in 2015. No longer in the shadow of Doug Baldwin, his production puts him in elite company and he should be paid as such.
Ultimately, Seattle should explore tacking on an extra year or two to Lockett's contract and give him a raise to at least $14 million per year. It would be a gesture of good faith and show the franchise remains committed to paying and rewarding its best players.
