Arch Manning, CJ Carr, and a Wide-Open Field: Kalshi's Heisman Trophy Market Heading Into the 2026 Season

Kalshi's College Football Heisman Trophy Winner market opens the 2026 season with Arch Manning and CJ Carr tied at 13%. Behind them, Darian Mensah sits at 8%, a cluster of four players sits at 7%, and the board thins out from there. The spread is wide, and it should be. The Heisman is decided in November, and the player who wins it almost always does something in September and October that nobody fully anticipated in April.

That said, $643,584 in volume sits behind these prices. The 13% on Manning and Carr is not a casual estimate.

2026 Heisman Trophy Winner Market on Kalshi

Arch Manning, Texas, QB: 13%

Manning is entering 2026 with some very high expectations, same as last year, but this time the market has seen the potential already. His 2025 season was his first as Texas' full-time starter, accounting for 3,163 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. It was a rocky debut season that carried huge expectations, but it was also what most analysts expected from a first-year starter adjusting to SEC defenses. The season was a little disappointing statistically but not discouraging for a player whose 2025 was always expected to be a growth year rather than an accolade-chasing one.

The 2026 argument starts with the development curve. Year-two quarterbacks in this system tend to look different, and Manning himself has said that 2026 will be special for Texas. The stage and the supporting cast are there. Heisman voters notice quarterbacks on winning programs in prime time, and Manning will not be short on those moments. The 13% reflects real upside on a player who has proven he can handle the position at this level and now needs to take the next step in production.

CJ Carr, Notre Dame, QB: 13%

Notre Dame does not offer freshman quarterbacks much of a grace period, and Carr did not need one. He started every game, finished with 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns against just 6 interceptions, and showed up on both the Davey O'Brien and Manning Award watch lists by midseason.

Coming into 2026, the supporting pieces are arguably better. The offensive line is returning intact, the schedule sets up for national visibility, and Carr is no longer learning the job on the fly. Last year was proof he could do it. This year is about how much further he can take it.

The tie with Manning at 13% is the market saying these two cases are considered equal right now.

CJ Carr Scrambling — Nov 15, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr (13) scrambles with the ball against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the second quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Darian Mensah, Miami, QB: 8%

Mensah's path to Miami is the most complicated story on this board. He started at Tulane in 2024 where he threw for 2,723 yards and 22 touchdowns. Following his productive season he then transferred to Duke for the 2025 season where he threw for an impressive 3,973 yards and 34 touchdowns while throwing just 6 interceptions. He finished second in the nation in both passing yards and touchdowns. He led Duke to its first ACC title in nearly 40 years, then entered the transfer portal in January, which triggered a legal dispute with Duke before they settled, and he then committed to Miami.

It makes sense for a quarterback to want to join that program, a place that has had recent success with their quarterbacks. On top of that, the supporting cast is strong, running back Mark Fletcher Jr. ran for 1,192 yards and 12 touchdowns, and receiver Malachi Toney caught for 1,211 yards and 10 scores. Mensah also brought his top target from Duke, Cooper Barkate, with him. The 8% reflects a player who has already produced at a high level across two programs. If Miami contends and Mensah plays the way he did at Duke, 8% will look low before November.

The 7% Cluster:

This cluster includes some of the top QB names in college football, including Josh Hoover, Indiana, Julian Sayin, Ohio St., Dante Moore, Oregon, and Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss. The market cannot meaningfully separate these four in April, and that is an honest reflection of where things stand.

Hoover is the name worth watching in this group. Indiana won the national title in 2025, and he is walking into that program as the new starter. That is a different situation than the other three players at 7%. The Hoosiers are no longer a feel-good story. They are the defending champions, and Hoover gets the visibility and the winning environment that Heisman voters respond to. TCU gave him a platform. Indiana gives him a stage.

Sayin has the opposite version of that pressure. Ohio State is expected to contend, which means the margin for error is thin and the scrutiny is immediate. A strong September in Columbus gets national attention fast. A shaky one gets dissected just as quickly. Moore at Oregon and Chambliss at Ole Miss both have enough talent around them to produce numbers, but neither program is currently positioned to generate the kind of national win-streak momentum that tends to pull a player into the Heisman conversation by October.

Sam Leavitt, LSU, QB: 6%

Leavitt transfers to LSU after earning national attention at Arizona State. The SEC schedule is a significant step up, and the market has applied a discount for that jump while acknowledging he arrives with more proven production than most names below him on the board.

Jeremiah Smith, Ohio St., WR: 5%

Smith represents the best Heisman path for a non-quarterback, which is narrow historically but not impossible if the production reaches a level that makes him impossible to ignore for voters. Playing alongside Sayin at Ohio State means his touches are not guaranteed to increase, but his talent is not in question.

Jeremiah Smith Celebrating Catch — Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith celebrates after catching a pass against Penn State on Nov. 1. | Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Rest of the Board

Brendan Sorsby (Texas Tech, QB) and Gunner Stockton (Georgia, QB) sit at 4%, alongside Jayden Maiava (USC, QB) and John Mateer (Oklahoma, QB). Each carries a case that requires a lot to break correctly over a full season. They are on the board for a reason. But none of them are where the market's attention is focused heading into fall camp.

The Market Picture

The Heisman market in April almost never looks the way it does in November. Manning and Carr lead because they play for programs that manufacture Heisman visibility and because both carry enough upside to justify the position. Mensah at 8% is the most intriguing number on the board given what he has already produced, and the gap between him and the co-leaders is smaller than it might appear once the season begins and the production starts speaking for itself.

The widest board on Kalshi's college football slate is also the one with the most time left to move.

Accuracy note: Market data referenced reflects Kalshi contract prices as of April 9, 2026. Prices shift continuously. Verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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