Cade Smith Remains 2026 AL Reliever of the Year Favorite Despite Early Struggles

Cade Smith remains the AL Reliever of the Year favorite at 25% despite a shaky start, as Andrés Muñoz and Aroldis Chapman continue to apply pressure in a tightly packed 2026 prediction market race.

Cleveland Guardians relief pitcher Cade Smith (36) throws a pitch during the ninth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Progressive Field. | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

The MLB Reliever of the Year market is already turning into one of the most volatile—and intriguing—spots on the 2026 board.

Bullpens don’t sit still for long, and neither do the implied probabilities. One bad week, a role change, or a sudden spike in save chances can shift the entire landscape. And while saves still matter, they’re no longer the whole story. Voters are paying closer attention to strikeout dominance, leverage situations, and how overpowering a reliever is when the game actually hangs in the balance.

American League Reliever of the Year Probabilities

Kalshi

Right now, the American League boasts three top-tier names who all currently share at least a 20% share probability to take home this year’s hardware. According to Kalshi, Cade Smith has surged into the lead at 25%, with Andres Munoz right behind at 22%. Boston’s Aroldis Chapman isn’t far off either, sitting at 21% and firmly in the mix.

With three electric arms at the top and plenty of season left, this market is far from settled—so let’s break down the contenders and where the value might be.

Cade Smith, Cleveland Guardians (25%)

Smith’s path to this market wasn’t exactly conventional. He signed with Cleveland as an undrafted free agent in 2022 after a quiet three-year run at Hawaii (4-4, 4.54 ERA, 1.470 WHIP, 113 strikeouts, one save over 117.0 innings). The raw stuff took a jump in the minors, where he posted a 3.61 ERA, 1.210 WHIP, and 262 strikeouts across 167.0 innings, picking up 33 saves along the way—though a 4.6 BB/9 hinted at some volatility.

Cleveland tightened things up quickly. In his first MLB season, Smith’s mechanics clicked, and the results followed—his walk rate dropped to 2.0, his strikeout ability took off, and he allowed just one home run over 75.1 innings. He leaned heavily on a four-seamer (.173 BAA, 91 strikeouts), with support from a split-finger fastball (.167 BAA) and a slider (.333 BAA).

When Emmanuel Clase was suspended, Smith stepped into the ninth and didn’t blink. Over a 28-outing stretch, he converted 13 of 16 save chances with just two walks and 39 strikeouts in 27.2 innings (2.60 ERA, 0.685 WHIP). His 2.3 BB/9 and 12.7 K/9 both graded as strong positives, and he was especially tough on lefties (.157 BAA, 57 strikeouts over 142 plate appearances).

The arsenal backed it up. His fastball averaged a career-best 96.4 mph and accounted for 70.1% of his pitches, holding hitters to a .162 average with 77 strikeouts. The split played better against lefties (.196 BAA) than righties (.310 BAA), and the slider (.300 BAA vs. righties) remains the one pitch that needs refinement for long-term closing stability. He also limited damage well, posting a 4.0% barrel rate in 2025.

The start to 2026 hasn’t been as clean. Smith has struck out 10 and walked just three, but five runs over 7.0 innings have pushed his ERA to 6.43 with a 1.43 WHIP. The underlying profile still suggests better days ahead.

Andrés Muñoz, Seattle Mariners (22%)

Seattle Mariners pitcher Andres Munoz (75) pitches in the ninth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during game one of the ALCS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Rogers Centre. | John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Muñoz is coming off the best season of his career, setting a high-water mark with 38 saves and a 1.73 ERA. He opened that campaign with 23.2 consecutive scoreless innings (16 baserunners, 29 strikeouts), though he still managed to blow two of 19 save chances. T-Mobile Park was a major advantage—he posted a 0.95 ERA, 0.953 WHIP, and 36 strikeouts over 28.1 innings at home, with opponents hitting just .147.

His velocity remains elite, even if it’s ticked down slightly from its 2022 peak (100.3 mph) to 98.5 mph. The real weapon is his slider, which he throws 52.5% of the time and used to hold hitters to a .100 average with 65 strikeouts. The four-seamer (.250 BAA, 13 strikeouts) and sinker (.265 BAA, seven strikeouts) have been less effective, while his occasional changeup has yet to allow a hit.

Muñoz leans into a groundball-heavy profile (51.5%), which helped him post a career-low 4.8% HR/FB rate, though hitters did square him up more often than usual (39.6% hard-hit rate, a four-year high).

Early in 2026, he’s sitting at 2-1 with one save over 6.0 innings, along with nine strikeouts and four walks. He’s allowed three runs (two earned), good for a 3.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. It hasn’t been perfectly clean, but most of the damage came in one outing. Since then, he’s looked sharper—just one hit allowed over 4.0 innings in April, even with four walks mixed in. If Seattle gives him consistent ninth-inning volume, he has a clear path to climb this market.

Aroldis Chapman, Boston Red Sox (21%)

Boston Red Sox pitcher Aroldis Chapman (44) throws a pitch in the ninth inning of the MLB Opening Day game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Boston Red Sox at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati on Thursday, March 26, 2026. The Reds lost the season opener, 3-0. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Chapman’s first year in Boston turned into one of the more surprising bullpen stories in the league. At this stage of his career, the expectation was declining command—but instead, he delivered the best control of his career (2.2 BB/9), leading to a 1.17 ERA and 0.701 WHIP. For context, he entered the year with a career walk rate of 4.7 per nine.

Now the question becomes whether that leap is sustainable.

So far in 2026, the early returns are encouraging. Chapman has allowed just four baserunners and one run over 5.0 innings (1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP). The strikeouts (three) aren’t at their usual level, but the reliability has been there. If he continues limiting damage—especially the long ball—he’ll stay firmly in this race.

The turning point came last spring, when catcher Connor Wong emphasized fastball location rather than just velocity. That adjustment stuck, and it’s reshaped Chapman’s entire approach.

At Fenway Park, he was dominant—4-0 with a 0.88 ERA, 0.717 WHIP, 41 strikeouts, and 15 saves. Over a 53-game stretch, he converted 27 of 29 chances, allowing just one run and 30 baserunners across 49.0 innings with 67 strikeouts.

He also shifted his pitch mix. His flyball rate jumped to 44.9% (up from 37.6% in 2024), and he leaned more on his fastball (98.5 mph), four-seamer (.195 BAA), and sinker (.118 BAA), while scaling back slider (.154 BAA) and split usage (.108 BAA). The key is that all four pitches still miss bats.

At 17 seasons in, Chapman isn’t just hanging on—he’s still very much a factor at the top of this market.

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Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of Monday, April 13, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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