NL Comeback Player of the Year: Sandy Alcantara Leads Kalshi's Market, But Michael Harris II Is Moving Fast

Sandy Alcantara sits at 31% in Kalshi's NL Comeback Player of the Year market, a number that reflects both the seriousness of what he went through last year and the significance of what a fully healthy elite arm like his would mean for Miami. Behind him, Zack Wheeler holds at 23%, Michael Harris II has climbed 9 points recently to 19%, and Brandon Woodruff sits at 17% after falling four points. The board thins out from there, with O'Neil Cruz at 11%.

The market has $3,680 in volume behind it, which is modest compared to some of the larger Kalshi sports markets. That means prices here carry more room to move as the season develops and voters start paying attention. This leaves users opportunity to follow the NL closely and find players on streaks or overperforming and buy their contracts early for cheap.

2026 NL Comeback Player of the Year Kalshi Market

2026 NL Comeback Player of the Year Market on Kalshi — Kalshi

Sandy Alcantara: 31%

Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2023 and missed the entire 2024 season. Before the injury, he was performing as one of the best pitchers in the National League. He won the NL Cy Young in 2022 and was considered a legitimate frontline starter with elite stuff on the mound. The market at 31% is reflecting the combination of how far he fell and how meaningful a genuine return would be in the eyes of voters.

The risk is real. Pitchers coming back from Tommy John do not always return to their prior form immediately, and sometimes not at all. A full season of effective starts is the scenario that justifies the 31%. Anything less, and the market will redistribute away from him quickly. Alcantara is the name to watch here because his ceiling, if his elbow can hold, he has a legitimate reason to be the highest of anyone on this board.

Zack Wheeler: 23%

Wheeler missed significant time at the end of the 2025 season with a blood clot in his shoulder, which led to season ending surgery that included the removal of one of his ribs.. He enters 2026 fighting to get back healthy and with something to prove after a season that did not go the way anyone in Philadelphia expected.

He hasn't made a start at the major league level since his surgery, but has started making rehab starts in the minors. He is ahead of schedule for his return and looking to prove he is still that same ace from before the surgery.

The 23% reflects his standing in the league before last year's injury. Wheeler is a legitimate ace when healthy, and voters have historically rewarded pitchers who return from injury and pitch at the top of the rotation for a team contending for a title. Philadelphia figures to be in the postseason conversation again, which gives him a stage. His price falling one point in recent movement suggests the market is not adding to his probability right now, but nothing about his position looks fragile at 23%.

Zack Wheeler Pitching — Jul 27, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) pitches against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images | John Jones-Imagn Images

Michael Harris II: 19%

The nine-point jump is the most significant movement on this board and the number worth paying attention to. Harris missed part of 2024 with a hamstring injury that cost him a good part of the season after showing in 2022 and 2023 that he was developing into one of the better young outfielders in the National League. Unlike other names on this list, he appeared in 160 games in 2025, but had a down year statistically. A full healthy season from him in Atlanta where he plays up to his potential, on a team that expects to compete, would put him directly in the Comeback Player conversation.

The market moving nine points in his direction suggests participants are seeing something early, whether that is spring performance, health reports, or simply a reassessment of how much he is being undervalued at the price he was sitting at before. At 19%, he is close enough to Wheeler that a few weeks of strong play could rearrange this portion of the board entirely.

Brandon Woodruff: 17%

Woodruff's four-point drop off is the sharpest decline on the board. He missed all of 2024 following shoulder surgery and has not been able to string together a full season of starts since 2022. The drop likely reflects early-season uncertainty about his timeline or performance out of spring training.

At 17%, the market still sees a path for him. A return to his 2021 and 2022 form, when he was one of the better starters in the NL, would generate Comeback Player consideration. But the downward movement suggests users are not confident that exact version of Woodruff is arriving on schedule.

O'Neil Cruz: 11%

Cruz missed some time in 2024, and struggled at the plate, batting just .200 in 2025. He is attempting to re-establish himself as one of the more dynamic, and physically gifted shortstops in the league. At 11%, the market sees a real but limited case. His tools are not in question. The question is whether he stays healthy and productive enough over a full season to stand out in a field with injured pitchers returning from major surgeries, which is typically the profile voters gravitate toward.

The Market Picture

The NL Comeback Player race has the structure of a market that will look very different in June than it does today. Alcantara's 31% lead is meaningful but not commanding this early, and the nine-point move toward Harris II is the kind of signal that tends to precede further adjustment if the performance supports it.

Comeback Player voting is driven by narrative as much as statistics. Voters reward players who return from serious injuries and perform at a high level for teams that matter. Alcantara and Wheeler fit the pitcher profile that has historically won this award. Harris and Woodruff represent position player and pitcher alternatives that could move if the right circumstances develop over the first few months of the season.

Accuracy note: Market data referenced reflects Kalshi contract prices as of April 9, 2026. Prices shift continuously. Verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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