Prediction Markets Suggest Shohei Ohtani Could Make History with MVP & Cy Young in Same Season

The last player to win both awards in the same season was Clayton Kershaw in 2014. Twelve years later, the market thinks Ohtani has a real shot.

Apr 29, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) walks during the third inning against the Miami Marlins at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

We’ve known for some time that nobody in baseball does what Shohei Ohtani does. That has been true for years, but this season adds a new layer to it. He is back on the mound as a full-time starter for the Dodgers while still hitting in the lineup, and the early numbers he's posting have been good enough that Kalshi built a dedicated market around a question most players never get asked: can he win both the NL MVP and the NL Cy Young in the same year?

Kershaw did it in 2014, and that season still comes up whenever someone needs a shorthand for pitching greatness. The circumstances were different. Kershaw was a pure pitcher. Ohtani is something else entirely, which makes the question harder to answer and more interesting to watch. The market is not dismissing it. Over $35,000 has been traded on the combined contract, and the individual award markets have drawn nearly $1.5 million in volume combined. That is not noise.

Shohei Ohtani MVP and Cy Young Award | Kalshi Market

Kalshi

Shohei Ohtani | 14% Chance 

Kalshi's combined market puts Ohtani at 14% to win both the NL MVP and the Cy Young Award in the same season. That number has been remarkably steady over the past two weeks, hovering between 12.5% and 15% with a slight upward tick entering April 30. The volume behind this contract, just over $35,000, is smaller than the individual award markets, but it reflects genuine market conviction rather than casual speculation.

The 14% figure tells you something important about how traders are thinking. On its own, Ohtani sits at 68% in the NL MVP market, an overwhelming favorite. His path to that award, built on offensive production, star power, and the Dodgers' standing as the best team in baseball, remains as wide open as it has been all season. The Cy Young market is a tighter race, and that is where the combined probability compresses.

NL Cy Young Market on Kalshi | $1 Million in Volume 

Kalshi

Shohei Ohtani | 18% Chance

The NL Cy Young market sits at $924,000 in total volume, making it one of the more heavily traded individual award markets Kalshi has offered. Ohtani currently holds an 18% chance, good for second place in the field. That number has climbed three points recently, signaling that traders are paying attention to what he is doing on the mound.

The competition is the real story here. Paul Skenes of Pittsburgh leads the market at 34%, and the gap between first and second is meaningful. Skenes is building a case that was difficult to dismiss before the season started and has only gotten louder since. For Ohtani to close that distance, he will need to produce at an elite level across both roles, something he has proven capable of but that carries real uncertainty across a full season of starts.

Ohtani currently has an incredible 0.60 ERA, with a 2-1 record to start the season. He has had an impressive start to the year on the mound, and at the plate. The main question is can he continue to play at such an elite level for an entire season?

Paul Skenes | 34% Chance

Skenes holds a commanding lead in the Cy Young market, and his trajectory on this chart has been one of the more interesting stories in the award market landscape. After starting the season with a substantial edge, he saw his probability compress in February and March before climbing back to a clear lead as April closes out. At 34%, the market sees him as the frontrunner by a healthy margin over a crowded field.

For the combined Ohtani market, Skenes matters enormously. If he continues pitching at this level, the ceiling on Ohtani's Cy Young probability stays compressed, which in turn limits the chances of the combined award scenario materializing.

Apr 24, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) reacts after giving up a hit in the seventh inning to break up a perfect game against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

NL MVP Market on Kalshi | $600,000 in Total Volume

Kalshi

Shohei Ohtani | 68% Chance 

The NL MVP market is almost a one-man race right now. Ohtani holds 68% of the probability, with Ronald Acuna Jr. at 8% and Corbin Carroll at 7%. Those numbers are not close. Acuna is working his way back from injury, and while the market has not fully abandoned him, the gap between him and Ohtani reflects how lopsided the award picture looks from the outside.

The $576,000 in MVP market volume indicates trader interest this early into the season. Ohtani's probability has climbed steadily since early April, and the line on this chart is about as bullish a trend as you will find in any sports award market right now.

The Market Angle

What makes this particular setup interesting is not just Ohtani's individual probabilities, it is the structure of what the combined market is asking. Winning MVP while also pitching well enough to beat Skenes for the Cy Young requires Ohtani to operate at the top of two different skill sets simultaneously for an entire season's worth of games. That is not impossible. It is what he is built for. But the market is correct to price that challenge honestly at 14%.

The Cy Young race is the swing variable. If Skenes stumbles, or if Ohtani's numbers on the mound outpace expectations, that 18% could move quickly. And when the Cy Young probability moves, the combined market moves with it. Traders watching this market closely are essentially watching two separate narratives play out at the same time, and right now, both are worth tracking.

If Ohtani pulls this off, no comparison is going to feel adequate. Kershaw's 2014 will still come up, but Ohtani doing it while standing in the batter's box changes the scale of the conversation entirely.

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Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of May 1, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.