History Shows Pivotal Game 5 Winner Comes Out on Top as Knicks Host Hawks

Game 5 between the New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks carries massive weight, with history showing the winner of a 2-2 series takes it nearly 82% of the time.

New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) shoots over Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels (5) during the first half at State Farm Arena. | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

History says this is the swing game—and the numbers back it up.

When an NBA playoff series is tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 goes on to take the series roughly 82% of the time. That’s the weight hanging over New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks tonight.

After dropping two heartbreakers by a single point, the Knicks punched back in a big way in Game 4, running the Hawks off the floor to even things up. Now the series shifts back to Madison Square Garden for a pivotal Game 5, with tip-off set for 8:00 PM ET on NBC/Peacock.

Kalsh

From a market perspective, Kalshi is leaning heavily toward New York. The Knicks are sitting at a 70% probability to win Game 5, while Atlanta trails at 30%. Zooming out, New York is also holding a 69% edge to win the series, with nearly $2 million already traded on the outcome.

Knicks-Hawks Game 5 Breakdown

If you’re looking for the clearest edge in this series, start on the glass. With Mitchell Robinson and Karl-Anthony Towns controlling the paint, the Knicks are winning the rebounding battle by about six boards per game. That’s not just a stat—it’s extra possessions, second-chance points, and control of tempo.

New York has also been more efficient from deep, hitting 38% of its threes compared to Atlanta’s 33%. That gap adds up quickly in a playoff series where every possession feels magnified.

Atlanta wants to speed this game up. That’s their path. But if New York can keep things in the half court, dominate the offensive glass, and grind possessions down, the advantage tilts heavily toward the Knicks. Even with the Hawks generating pressure—averaging eight steals per game—New York has been able to offset that with shot-making and interior production, including 51 points per game in the paint through four contests.

Star Power Takes Center Stage

At some point, these games come down to your best players—and this series has delivered on that front.

CJ McCollum has been outstanding, matching Jalen Brunson shot for shot through four games. However, New York has found ways to survive even when McCollum heats up. That’ll be tested again tonight, especially considering his last trip to the Garden ended with a cold-blooded, go-ahead jumper over OG Anunoby.

Expect Anunoby to draw that assignment again. If the Knicks can keep McCollum under 20 points, that’s a major win—especially with Jalen Johnson still trying to find consistency.

On the other side, Towns is coming off a statement performance: 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists in a Game 4 triple-double. When he’s playing at that level, New York’s ceiling changes.

Atlanta needs more from Jonathan Kuminga, who’s hitting just 19% from beyond the arc in the series. Thus far, he has not generated the upside they were hoping for when they landed him prior to the headline from the Golden State Warriors. For New York, Mikal Bridges has to offer more than the 7.3 points per game he’s averaged so far. He's been an even bigger bust given the Knicks sacrificed a whopping five first-round picks for him two offseasons ago.

Market Outlook

The current 6.5-point edge for New York on Kalshi lines up with what we’ve seen. The Knicks have been the more physical team, the more efficient team, and, in key moments, the steadier team.

Atlanta has shown flashes, especially when dictating pace. But if this turns into another grind-it-out game at the Garden, the numbers—and the market—are telling you where the edge lies.

Game 5 doesn’t just feel big. Historically, it decides everything.

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Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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