Knicks vs. Hawks Playoff Series Preview: New York Favored, But Atlanta Is Surging

The Knicks enter as heavy favorites, but a red-hot Hawks team makes this first-round matchup far more dangerous than the odds suggest.

New York Knicks center/forward Karl-Anthony Towns (32) walks on the court before the game against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The New York Knicks have ridden a rollercoaster this season, mixing impressive highs—like a surprising NBA Cup win over the San Antonio Spurs—with frustrating lows, including a 2–9 skid and back-to-back shaky wins over a depleted Golden State Warriors squad missing Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler and the struggling crosstown Brooklyn Nets.

The Knicks (53-29) finished as the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference and will host a gritty Atlanta Hawks (46-36) squad. This is a rematch of the first-round matchup in the 2021 NBA Playoffs. But most of the main players from those two teams are no longer in town. 

New York Knicks-Atlanta Hawks Series Winner Implied Probabilities 

Kalshi

According to Kalshi, the Knicks have a 70% chance at winning the series. The series spread is 1.5 games, meaning the market seems to think New York will capture this series in five or six games. That being said, the Hawks were one of the hottest teams in the Association over the second half of the season and those in the know around the basketball world think the Knicks could be on upset alert.

Let’s take a closer look at each team and who this matchup favors. 

New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks NBA Playoffs Breakdown

The Knicks surely were hoping to play a Toronto Raptors franchise that they have dominated in recent years, winning 13 games in a row. However, after the Hawks lost the final game of the season to the Miami Heat and the Orlando Magic somehow lost to a Boston Celtics team sitting all of their starters, the Knicks will have to host a gritty Hawks squad that may not have a true superstar, but is bursting from the seams with talented young studs. 

New York will continue to ride the dynamic duo of Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. OG Anunonby will be tasked with defending opposing teams’ most dynamic scorers (in this case that could be Jalen Johnson), Mikail Bridges will be an X-Factor, and Mitchell Robinson will operate as the team’s offensive rebounding specialist. 

This team doesn’t have the same issues that they had last year. They are much deeper after acquiring Jose Alvarado at the NBA Trade deadline, and the Jordan Clarkson signing this past summer could pay dividends. This is the time when the bench needs to step up. 

Ultimately, this team will go as far as Brunson takes them. In last year’s postseason run, the captain averaged 29.4 points, 7.0 assists, and 3.4 rebounds per game. He shot 46.1% from the field and just over 35% from beyond the arc. 

New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) reacts in the fourth quarter against the New Orleans Pelicans at Madison Square Garden. | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

And while the Knicks took two out of three games against Atlanta this season, the Hawks are an entirely different team now versus the first time these two squads met. The Hawks didn’t just take a winding path this season—they practically rewrote the map.

Back in October, the vision made sense: build around Trae Young, surround him with length on the wings, and lean on a proven scorer in Kristaps Porziņģis to push toward a playoff return. Instead, the early months unraveled quickly. The Hawks stumbled out of the gate, looked oddly more functional with Young sidelined, and never got clarity on Porziņģis as he dealt with a lingering, undefined illness. By midseason, they were barely hanging onto the play-in picture.

Then came the noise—and eventually, the move. Reports of tension between Young and the organization picked up steam, fueled in part by a messy contract situation. By January, it boiled over into a deal that sent him to the Washington Wizards, signaling a clear pivot. When Porziņģis was later flipped for Jonathan Kuminga, the direction looked obvious: stay competitive enough for the play-in, reset in the offseason, and cash in a valuable draft asset from that ill-fated New Orleans Pelicans trade.

That plan didn’t hold for long.

Sitting at 27–31 at the end of February, Atlanta caught a break in the schedule—and didn’t waste it. They ripped off 18 wins in their next 20 games, blowing past both the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat as those teams tried—and failed—to keep pace.

The breakout was real. Nickeil Alexander-Walker stepped into a leading role and looked every bit the part, no longer living in anyone’s shadow. Jalen Johnson elevated his game to an All-NBA level, and the supporting cast followed suit, turning a patchwork roster into a legitimate threat.

In the end, the Hawks still landed where they thought they would back in October. They just took a completely different roster—and a far more chaotic route—to get there.

Can the Hawks keep pace with the high-octane Knicks? Probably not. But can they make this a legitimately competitive series and perhaps force seven games? Absolutely. 

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Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of Thursday, April 16, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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