NBA Rookie of the Year Based on Kalshi Markets: Kon Knueppel vs. Cooper Flagg

The NBA Rookie of the Year Award race has shifted dramatically, as Kon Knueppel has leapfrogged Cooper Flagg based on Kalshi market probabilities.

Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg (32) shoots during the second half against the Cleveland Cavaliers at American Airlines Center. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Before the NBA season, the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, Cooper Flagg, seemed destined to win this year’s NBA Rookie of the Year award. Leading up to the first game of the season, Flagg was the obvious favorite with a 67% probability to win on Kalshi. Meanwhile, his former teammate from Duke, Kon Knueppel of the Charlotte Hornets, was being traded at just 3%. 

Kon Knueppel's NBA Rookie of the Year Probability Skyrockets

Things in the NBA change quickly. With injuries mounting to this year’s crop of rookies, the rising star in Charlotte has impressively suited up for all but one contest in his debut season. Availability is an under appreciated part of his game and he’s on the cusp of being one of just a handful of players to ever convert 50% of his field goals, 40% of his three pointers, and 90% of his attempts from the charity stripe. He’s just a few percentage points away from joining that elite club, and if he does, it will make this award that much easier to decide.

Charlotte Hornets guard Kon Knueppel (7) takes a shot during the second half against the Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena. / Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

In 68 games this year, the sharpshooter has emerged as one of Charlotte’s most trustworthy options. He’s averaging 19.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game, while putting up efficient shooting splits (49%/43.7%/87.6%). He’s not a defensive beast but he’s still adding 0.8 steals and 0.3 blocks per game. Even more impressive, he’s leading the entire Association in converted three pointers (3.5 per game). 

Kon Knueppel Overtakes Cooper Flagg

Back on February 26, it was a tight race according to Kalshi with Flagg at 61.5% and Knueppel at 42.5%. Then, the rookie tied his season high by converting eight of 12 threes against the Indiana Pacers en route to 28 points. By the next day, the Hornets sniper eclipsed the 50% probability mark to win the NBA Rookie of the Year award for the first time all season. 

Kalshi

Since then, he’s widened the gap and as of this writing, Knueppel has a 66% chance to take home the hardware while his former teammate has plummeted to just 38%. Clearly, it is Knueppel’s trophy to lose at this point with just over a dozen games remaining on the regular-season schedule. His durability has worked to his advantage and the fact that he hasn’t had a single slump all season and has been so reliable is working in his favor. 

It doesn’t hurt that the Hornets are one of the hottest teams in the league right now and are genuinely generating a ton of postseason buzz despite currently sitting in the No. 10 spot in the Eastern Conference. Since the start of February, the team is 13-6 and currently sits one game above .500 (35-34) with 13 games remaining. Charlotte is very close to clinching a spot in the play-in tournament and are just 3.5 games back from the sixth-seeded Orlando Magic. The Hornets likely aren’t going far in the playoffs but the injection of energy and reliability they are getting from their young rookie is making them must-watch television and a scary opponent for any top tier team in the East. 

Cooper Flagg's Injury Could Cost Him Rooke of the Year Honors

In the Western Conference, Flagg’s Mavericks have dropped out of the playoff race. They are 23-46 after winning just two of their last 10 games. Flagg is still having an outstanding season but injuries have forced him to miss 12 games, which could play a role in the Rookie of the Year voting. The big man is averaging 20.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game, while chipping in on the defensive end with 1.1 steals and 0.9 blocks per contest.

From a statistical standpoint, these two rookies have performed very evenly, but Flagg’s struggles from beyond the three point line (29.1%), as well as his recent foot injury could be the difference makers. 

BREAKING: Cooper Flagg is expected to RETURN tonight vs the Magic after missing 9 games with a left foot strain 😤

(via Marc Stein) pic.twitter.com/4Dg4tfsogu

— Basketball Forever (@bballforever_) March 5, 2026

Flagg delivered his strongest performance since returning from an eight-game absence due to a foot injury, posting a double-double featuring 27 points and 10 assists in the Mavericks’ win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on March 15—a result that snapped Dallas’ eight-game losing streak. But was it enough to influence the market? He followed that up with a solid all-around game in a losing effort to the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday with 21 points, seven boards, and eight assists, though he did miss all three of his attempts from beyond the arc. 

Kon Knueppel Deserves To Be Crowned NBA Rookie of the Year

There are other rookies who have had standout seasons but even Philadelphia’s VJ Edgecombe isn’t close to cracking the top tier.

At the end of the day, Knueppel’s consistency, three-point prowess, all-around versatility, and his team’s rise in the standings signal that he will be crowned the NBA’s Rookie of the Year. Flagg may be the superior player, but Knueppel has had the better season from most measured metrics. 

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