Will Victor Wembanyama Play Game 5 for the Spurs?

An ejection, a tied series, and a Game 5 at home. Here is what the market is saying about whether San Antonio's star suits up Tuesday night.

May 10, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama (1) commits a level two flagrant foul against Minnesota Timberwolves center Naz Reid (11) in the second quarter of game four of the second round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Target Center. Wembanyama had to leave the game. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images | Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Victor Wembanyama picked up the first ejection of his career on Sunday, and now the series is square. Early in the second quarter of Game 4 in Minneapolis, a frustrated Wembanyama swung his elbow into Naz Reid's jaw and neck area while boxing out. 

The referees reviewed the play and upgraded it to a Flagrant 2, triggering an automatic ejection. He finished with four points and four rebounds in 13 minutes before walking off the floor to Michael Jackson's "Beat It" blaring through Target Center.

The Timberwolves won 114-109 to even the series at two games apiece. Anthony Edwards had 36 points, 16 of them in the fourth quarter, and San Antonio's backcourt of De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, and Stephon Castle combined for 68 points in a performance that kept the game close long after Wembanyama was gone. 

The Spurs have home court for Game 5 on Tuesday. The only real question is whether Wembanyama will be there.

Victor Wembanyama Next Game Played | Kalshi Market

Kalshi

Before May 13 | 73% Chance

The May 13 contract, which covers Game 5, has jumped 20 points and sits at 73%. That is a significant move in a short window, and it tells you the market thinks a suspension is unlikely. The NBA will review the play and issue its decision before Tuesday, but Flagrant 2 ejections do not automatically carry a suspension. Given the context, Wembanyama being held and baited into a reaction, the league may see it as a one-game warning rather than a suspendable offense. At 73%, traders are largely pricing in the same conclusion.

Before May 16 | 98% Chance

The May 16 window covers Games 5 and 6, and at 98%, this one is essentially settled. Even in a scenario where the league does suspend him for Game 5, the market sees his return before the series ends as a near-certainty.

The Market Angle

The 20-point jump on the May 13 Victor Wembanyama Next Game contract is the clearest signal here. That kind of movement reflects traders quickly reassessing the suspension risk and landing on a comfortable majority in favor of him playing. 

The NBA has historically reserved suspensions for plays involving intent to injure or repeat offenders. Wembanyama has no history here, and Spurs coach Mitch Johnson made a point after the game of framing the play in the context of the physical punishment Wembanyama absorbs every night without protection from officials. That argument will not go unnoticed.

The more interesting storyline heading into Game 5 may be Wembanyama's headspace. He was posting 39 points on 13-for-18 shooting in Game 3 just two days before this. He is capable of the kind of performance that ends a series on his own. Whether he channels Sunday's frustration into that kind of output, or whether it lingers, is something no market can price.

The series is tied, the Spurs have home court, and Wembanyama is almost certainly playing Tuesday. What happens after that is up to him.

Update

The NBA has announced officially that no further action will be taken against Victor Wembanyama and he will be playing in Game 5 tomorrow.

Breaking: Sources tell @ShamsCharania that there will be no further discipline for Victor Wembanyama after he was ejected for elbowing Naz Reid, Charania announced on the @PatMcAfeeShow.

Wembanyama will play in Game 5 on Tuesday night in San Antonio. pic.twitter.com/9KN333hUzQ

— ESPN (@espn) May 11, 2026

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Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of May 11, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.