2026 PGA Championship Winner Market Choosing between Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy

The PGA Championship is officially here, with 156 players in the field and over $47 million traded on the market. The board is set. Here is what the numbers say before Thursday.

ChatGPT

Aronimink Golf Club has not hosted the PGA Championship since 1962. The Donald Ross design in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania sits at par 70 across 7,394 yards, and it does not care about your driving distance. It cares about where you miss, how you manage a round when nothing is working, and whether your iron play holds up when the fairways get firm. Philadelphia in May can be unpredictable, and this course has a way of separating fields more honestly than most.

The Kalshi market has been pricing this one since April. More than $47 million in volume later, a clear picture has emerged at the top. Below that, things get complicated fast.

2026 PGA Championship Winner | Kalshi Market

Kalshi

Scottie Scheffler | 17% Chance

Scheffler is nearly double the second name on the board, which tells you most of what you need to know about where the market stands in this field. He won here in 2025 at -11 under and has spent the better part of the last 5 years making major championship contention look routine. 

His iron play is tailor-made for a Donald Ross layout that demands precise approach distances, and nothing about his recent form suggests a significant drop-off is coming. Seventeen percent in a 156 man field is a substantial number. 

The market is not being subtle about who it favors.

Rory McIlroy | 8.6% Chance

McIlroy has drifted 0.6 points recently, which the market tends to do with players whose form carries some questions into a major week. The PGA Championship is one he hasn't won in awhile, and that fact is not going away. What McIlroy does bring to Aronimink is a ball-striking floor that very few players in the world can match, and a Ross course that rewards clean approaches into small targets suits that part of his game well. 

Whether the closing stretch of a major treats him differently this year than it has before is the only real question around him. He’s found success recently at other majors, could this week be when he adds a third Wanamaker to his trophy cabinet? 

The market is still giving him nearly a nine percent chance to do just that.

Cameron Young | 6.6% Chance

Young has been knocking on this door long enough that 6.6 percent no longer feels like market optimism. His distance off the tee is well established. What has changed over the last 18 months is the sharpness of his iron game and a short game that has become reliable rather than a liability. Aronimink will test all of it. A par-70 with teeth is exactly the kind of layout where a player either announces himself or spends four days fighting the course. Young has the tools to pull this off.

May 10, 2026; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Cameron Young stands on the fifth green during the final round of the Truist Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Xander Schauffele | 4.8% Chance

Schauffele won this event in 2024 at -21 under and comes in here at 4.8%, which feels a touch conservative given that résumé. He is not a player who tends to win a major with a 36-hole burst and then coast. He builds. 

He tends to look like a factor by Saturday and a serious threat by Sunday morning. His approach to playing on firm, demanding tracks has been a consistent strength, and Aronimink is exactly that kind of place. Fourth on this board for a defending-style champion is worth noting.

Other Names to Watch

Jon Rahm | 5.5%

Ludvig Aberg | 4%

Bryson DeChambeau | 3.7%

Matt Fitzpatrick | 3.2%

Tommy Fleetwood | 2.9%

The Market Read

Scheffler at 17% percent is the headline, but the more telling number is how little separates the rest of the field. Rahm at 5.5%, Aberg at 4%, DeChambeau at 3.7%, and Fitzpatrick at 3.2% are all within two points of each other. That cluster is the market saying it does not have strong conviction past the top of the board. 

$47 million in volume gives this PGA Championship Winner Market real weight, and the wide spread between Scheffler and the field doesn't reflects what Aronimink historically does to tournament predictions.

Donald Ross courses tend to produce Sundays that look nothing like the Thursday forecast. The market knows that, and the tight odds in the field beneath Scheffler reflect that.

Scheffler is the clear answer on paper. Aronimink has a way of making paper feel irrelevant by the back nine on Sunday.

Trading is risky, always trade responsibly. If your activity is becoming a problem, support is available by calling 1-800-522-4700.

Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of May 12, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.