Arizona Cardinals Emerge as Favorites to Select Ty Simpson in 2026 NFL Draft

Kalshi markets point to the Arizona Cardinals as the favorites to land Ty Simpson, with multiple teams still in play as the 2026 NFL Draft quarterback market begins to take shape.

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson (15) passes against the Indiana Hoosiers in the first half of the 2026 Rose Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at Rose Bowl Stadium. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Once Fernando Mendoza comes off the board at No. 1 overall, the quarterback conversation in the 2026 NFL Draft shifts pretty dramatically. There isn’t a clear consensus behind him, and it’s far from a guarantee that multiple quarterbacks hear their names called on Night 1 in Pittsburgh. That said, if there is a second signal-caller to crash the first round, Ty Simpson is the one the market keeps circling.

Simpson’s projection as a late first-round pick is an interesting sweet spot. It likely takes him out of the pressure cooker at the very top of the draft and drops him into a more stable situation—one where he can develop at his own pace instead of being thrown into the fire right away. For a quarterback with his profile, that might be the best-case scenario long term.

Ty Simpson Next Team Odds According to Kalshi

Kalshi

According to Kalshi, the Arizona Cardinals are the current frontrunners at 34%, with the New York Jets (18%) and Los Angeles Rams (14%) also firmly in the mix. With draft night approaching, let’s take a closer look at how each of these landing spots fits—and what the market may be getting right (or wrong).

Arizona Cardinals (34%)

The Cardinals are sitting in a fascinating spot with the No. 3 overall pick. While quarterback is clearly on the long-term checklist, all signs point to them addressing other needs in the first round. Waiting until Day 2 or getting aggressive with a trade back into Round 1 could be the more realistic path to landing their future signal caller. 

That’s where Ty Simpson comes into play. Arizona is firmly in the mix to land him, whether it’s at No. 34 or via a late first-round move similar to what the Giants pulled off last year when targeting Jaxson Dart. The market clearly sees the connection, pricing the Cardinals as the favorite.

With Kyler Murray now out of the picture and the offense transitioning under Mike LaFleur, the current quarterback room—featuring Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew—feels more like a temporary solution than a long-term answer. That kind of setup naturally points toward a developmental rookie, and Simpson fits that mold as well as anyone in this class.

We also love his potential weapons with the Cardinals. The offensive line is still an issue but he would also get an opportunity to throw the ball to Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr, and Michael Wilson. 

New York Jets (18%)

New York Jets head coach Aaron Glenn looks on during the second half against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

The New York Jets find themselves searching for answers under center yet again after moving on from Justin Fields and coming up empty on top-tier free-agent options like Kyler Murray and Malik Willis. That leaves April’s draft as their most realistic path forward—and if Ty Simpson is still on the board at No. 16, the market suggests he’ll be firmly in play.

From a roster-building standpoint, this isn’t a bare cupboard. Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, and Mason Taylor give the offense a functional core, which raises the question: do the Jets plug in a rookie immediately, or take a more patient approach? Head coach Aaron Glenn recently said that Geno Smith will be the one to take them to the "promised land," but that's a tough line to believe, particuarly in New York.

If Simpson lands here, expectation and opportunity collide fast. The depth chart doesn’t exactly demand a redshirt year, so there’s a real scenario where he’s thrown into action early. 

Los Angeles Rams (14%)

The Los Angeles Rams are sitting at No. 13, which feels a touch aggressive for a quarterback like Ty Simpson—especially for a team still operating in win-now mode. But from a market perspective, this is where things get interesting.

There’s a very real succession angle in play with Matthew Stafford nearing the back end of his career, and the Rams have never been shy about planning a year early rather than a year late. If Simpson were to land in Los Angeles, he wouldn’t be asked to carry the offense right away. Instead, he’d get the benefit of learning inside Sean McVay’s system, which has a track record of maximizing quarterback play.

And if that transition lines up with a supporting cast featuring Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, the long-term ceiling starts to look a lot more appealing than the initial price might suggest.

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Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of Wednesday, April 1, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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