Cincinnati Leads the Market to Draft Caleb Downs, but the Giants and Commanders Are Watching Closely

The Ohio State safety is considered to be the most complete defensive back prospect in years. Three teams with early picks and secondary needs are driving the market, and the gap between them is razor thin.

Dec 31, 2025; Arlington, TX, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes safety Caleb Downs (2) gets into position during the 2025 Cotton Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Caleb Downs is not expected to be available for too long in the 2026 NFL Draft. And yet, here we are three weeks out from draft night, and the Kalshi market still cannot decide who is going to be the team that actually pulls the trigger.

According to Kalshi’s market, there isn’t a clean answer, at least not yet. Cincinnati leads the way at 29%, Washington sits at 21%, New York Giants are following at 15%, and the Chiefs have just a 9% chance to take him. Dallas is a little bit of an afterthought at 8%. With the draft just 16 days out we should get a better idea as we keep getting closer to round one.

Team to Draft Caleb Downs Market on Kalshi

Kalshi

Cincinnati Bengals (29%)

The Bengals went into free agency with a problem and came out with a partial solution. Bryan Cook shores up one safety spot. Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe address a defensive line that underperformed most of 2025. Reasonable moves, all of them, and not quite enough.

Downs is the kind of player that makes the rest of a defense easier to run. He is not filling a vacancy so much as changing what Cincinnati can actually ask of its secondary. Drop him into a deep half and he takes away throwing windows before they open. Put him in the box and he is a tackling machine who plays physically bigger than his 205-pound frame suggests. Follow a tight end across the formation? He has done that too. The versatility is real, and the Bengals have been missing exactly that kind of chess piece behind their front seven.

The one complication is Rueben Bain Jr. With Trey Hendrickson now in Baltimore, pass rush is a legitimate argument at 10, and if Bain Jr. is still on the board Cincinnati may not be able to look away. But if he is gone, and that is a genuine possibility, the next name that has that same amount of intrigue is Downs. Scouts have drawn Budda Baker comparisons, and Baker has been to eight Pro Bowls. That is a ceiling worth chasing regardless of which position it comes from.

Washington Commanders (21%)

Washington picks seventh overall and has openly discussed the need to upgrade the back end of a defense that Dan Quinn spent most of free agency trying to rebuild. The Commanders added Odafe Oweh and K'Lavon Chaisson off the edge, and they moved money around to shore up a few roster holes.

Downs at seven would be a luxury pick in the truest sense, Washington does not go into draft night with a glaring, cannot-miss-it hole at safety the way Cincinnati does. But that is exactly what makes this scenario believable. Downs is the kind of player who fills roles that do not fully exist until he gets there. He reads quarterbacks before they commit, fills run gaps from depth, and works in man coverage against tight ends across the formation. Whatever Quinn draws up, there is probably a version of it that Downs executes better than the current roster.

The question is whether Washington is comfortable taking a safety this high when receivers and pass rushers are still on the board. If the top options at edge and wideout disappear before pick seven, Downs becomes a very live option. The market appears to believe that scenario has real probability.

Ohio State Buckeyes defensive back Caleb Downs (2) leaves the field following the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas for the College Football Playoff quarterfinal game against the Miami Hurricanes on Dec. 31, 2025. Ohio State lost 24-14. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Kansas City Chiefs (9%) and New York Giants (15%)

Kansas City is the quiet name in this market, and that quietness itself is worth noting. The Chiefs do not draft for need, they draft for value, and Downs at 9% suggests the market believes Andy Reid's front office has at least looked at this film and found something worth keeping in the conversation. Kansas City's pick in the first round puts them in a range where Downs could still be available if the top of the board clears out the way many projections suggest.

New York is the more conventional fit. John Harbaugh takes over as head coach in East Rutherford with a documented history of prioritizing elite safety play, he coached Ed Reed, he drafted Kyle Hamilton, and he watched Malaki Starks come of age in Baltimore. The Giants pick fifth, which would represent the highest a safety has been taken in the draft since Eric Berry in 2010, and multiple analysts have already made that case out loud. Pairing Downs with Jevon Holland would give New York arguably the most versatile safety tandem in the league. The fit is obvious enough that this market feels slightly underpriced at 15% given how loudly the Giants' mock draft ecosystem has been pushing this direction.

Nov 23, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; New York Giants safety Jevon Holland (8) celebrates an interception in the third quarter against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images | Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

The Positional Value Argument

The only reason Downs is not a top-three conversation is the position he plays, and that is a real constraint. The NFL has spent the better part of two decades systematically deprioritizing safeties in the first round, and the market reflects that hesitation. Teams picking in the top five have quarterbacks and edge rushers and tackles to consider before they get to a safety, even one this good.

But Downs is not a safety in the old sense. He is a defensive processor who happens to line up at safety. He logged 256 tackles, 16 tackles for loss, and six interceptions over three college seasons. He led Alabama in tackles as a true freshman. He was the backbone of an Ohio State defense that allowed fewer than 12 points per game over two seasons. At some point, the production and the versatility demand a premium regardless of position label.

Cincinnati leads this market for a reason. The Bengals have the pick, the need, and the scheme familiarity to make it work. But Washington is one bad draw at the top of the board away from making this an easy call at seven. And somewhere in the Giants' draft room, Harbaugh already knows what this kind of player looks like when he is right.

The market has not decided. April 23 will shake it all out.

Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of Tuesday, April 7, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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