Everything You Can Trade on the 2026 NFL Draft at Kalshi

From the second overall pick to first-round bubble players, here is a breakdown of the available draft markets, and which are the most active right now.

Apr 21, 2026; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Street banners promoting the 2026 NFL Draft in downtown. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The 2026 NFL Draft begins Thursday in Pittsburgh, and Kalshi has built out one of the more expansive event market structures the platform has offered for a single NFL event. The markets span several distinct categories, from exact pick contracts on the first 16 selections to positional draft position over/unders. Not all of them have meaningful volume yet, but several are generating real price movement heading into draft week. Here is what is worth paying attention to.

The 2026 NFL Draft | Kalshi Markets

1. Draft Category (14)
2. Draft Matchups (8)
3. Draft O/U (36)
4. Draft Specials (4)
5. Drafted by Team (19)
6. Exact Pick (16)
7. Positional Draft Order (29)
8. Team First Selection (32)
9. Top Pick (40)

Exact Pick | (16)

The exact pick markets are where the volume is. The #2 overall contract has cleared $2.36 million in total trading, making it the most active single draft market on the platform. Arvell Reese sits at 52% and David Bailey at 49%, which is about as close as these markets get. The market is essentially saying it cannot tell the difference between the two, which tracks with how most draft analysts have covered this pick.

The #3 overall market has $643K in total volume, and tells a similar story, with Reese at 30% and Jeremiyah Love at 28%. One pick later, the #4 overall market with $654K in total volume, has Love as the clearer leader at 40%, with Sonny Styles second at 24%. The Love probability jumping from 28% at three to 40% at four reflects what the market actually believes: that he is more likely a four than a three, but still very much in play at both spots.

Draft Matchup | (8)

The head-to-head matchup between David Bailey and Arvell Reese has drawn $13,333 in volume, with Bailey holding a 55% to 45% edge. Both are edge rushers, Bailey out of Texas Tech and Reese out of Ohio State, and the question of which goes first has been a legitimate debate throughout the pre-draft process. The matchup market slightly favors Bailey despite the #2 overall exact pick market essentially calling it even between them. That tension between the two markets is one of the more interesting data points available right now.

Oct 18, 2025; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders linebacker David Bailey (31) against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Draft Over/Under | (36)

This category structures markets as over/unders on specific pick numbers rather than exact landing spots, which creates a different kind of contract.

Jordyn Tyson going under 8.5 sits at 61%, the strongest lean in this group. Carnell Tate going under 7.5 is nearly a coin flip at 49%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether he gets pulled into the top seven or slides slightly. Caleb Downs going under 9.5 is at 42%, meaning the market leans toward him falling past nine, which would surprise some draft boards that have him as a top-eight talent.

Drafted by Team | (19)

The most actively traded team destination market belongs to Jeremiyah Love, which has generated $127,897 in volume. Tennessee leads at 35%, Arizona sits at 27%, and the New York Giants have risen to 23% after a notable late movement. Tennessee has been the consistent leader since this market opened in late March, but Arizona and the Giants closing the gap significantly in the past week suggests new information has entered the market. Love's price chart shows Tennessee pulling back eight points recently while Arizona and the Giants have each gained, which is worth watching as Thursday approaches.

Nov 22, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love (4) breaks loose for a touchdown run against the Syracuse Orange during the first half at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

Top Pick | (4)

The top pick markets cover whether a specific player lands within a defined range, and they surface some of the more decisive probabilities available for this draft.

David Bailey going in the top three is priced at 74%, the highest conviction contract shown in this data set. Jeremiyah Love going top three sits at just 25%, which connects directly back to the #3 and #4 exact pick markets showing him more likely to land at four. Rueben Bain Jr. going top ten is at 57%, while Spencer Fano going top ten sits at 49%. In the first round bubble category, Emmanuel McNeil-Warren is at 49% and Chase Bisontis at 42%, both uncertain outcomes that will not resolve until late Thursday night or Friday.

The Market Angle

The through line across these markets is the cluster of players sitting between picks two and five: Bailey, Reese, Love, and Styles are all pricing into multiple contracts simultaneously, and the relationships between those prices reveal what the market actually believes about draft order versus what individual pick markets suggest in isolation. Bailey at 74% to go top three while sitting at 49% in the #2 exact pick market tells you traders think he gets there, just not necessarily in the second spot. Love climbing toward Arizona and the Giants in the destination market while leading the #4 pick market at 40% tells a coherent story about where the consensus is landing.

The draft will almost certainly produce outcomes that break at least some of these contracts. It always does. But the volume behind the #2 overall market especially suggests traders are engaged with this draft at a level that makes the price movement meaningful, not just noise.

One night in Pittsburgh can flip every one of these markets in a matter of hours. The data says Bailey, Reese, and Love are the names to watch. The draft will have the final word.

Trading is risky, always trade responsibly. If your activity is becoming a problem, support is available by calling 1-800-522-4700.

Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of April 22, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.