Garrett Nussmeier vs. Carson Beck: What Kalshi's Third QB Market Actually Says About the 2026 Draft

Fernando Mendoza goes first overall to Las Vegas. Ty Simpson follows somewhere in the early rounds. After that, the 2026 NFL Draft quarterback market gets complicated, and Kalshi's market on the third quarterback drafted reflects exactly that. Garrett Nussmeier leads at 56%, but the number has slipped four points recently. Carson Beck sits at 26% despite a lower draft board ranking from most analysts. Taylen Green and Cole Payton are slightly further back at 23% and 15%, respectively. With this year's draft not considered to have strong depth at quarterback, who on this list goes first?

2026 NFL Draft Third QB Taken Market on Kalshi

Garrett Nussmeier, LSU: 56%

Watch the 2024 tape and the market position makes sense. Nussmeier threw for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns that year, operating with the kind of pocket awareness and anticipation that scouts circle. The 2025 season is a harder watch. Injuries shortened his year to nine games, the offense around him contracted, and the big-play opportunities that defined his prior season mostly disappeared. Two very different years from the same quarterback, and teams are now deciding which one is closer to the real product they’ll be drafting.

His arm strength has been flagged as below average for the professional level. His hands measured at 9.125 inches, which is a concern for anyone playing at a high level, but especially for a quarterback handling snaps in difficult weather conditions.

The Senior Bowl went well. He showed up healthy and returned to his anticipatory ways as a thrower. Teams want to see that the 2025 version was the injury-shortened anomaly and not the real player. At 56% on Kalshi, the market is saying there is probably a team willing to take that chance.

Carson Beck, Miami: 26%

This is the number worth examining most closely. Beck is ranked third or fourth on most draft boards behind Mendoza, Simpson, and in some Nussmeier as well. The Kalshi contract has him at 26%, the market sees something here.

Thirty-seven wins in 43 starts. Three CFP appearances. A 72.4% completion rate in his final college season. Beck has done things in college football that most quarterbacks in this class have not come close to, and certain evaluators weigh that kind of operational track record very heavily in their process.

The durability of that case depends on where he lands. Beck's off-target rate nearly doubled under early pressure compared to clean pockets, his 2024 UCL surgery still draws scrutiny from arm-strength evaluators, and his best football came when Miami's offensive line gave him nearly three seconds to throw on average. Strip that infrastructure away and the profile gets thinner. He is a fit-dependent prospect in a league where the right fit is never guaranteed. The market seems to think we could see him go fairly early in this quarterback class.

Carson Beck Passing in National Championship — Miami's Carson Beck (11) passes during the College Football Playoff National Championship college football game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Monday, Jan. 19, 2026. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Taylen Green, Arkansas: 23%

Green is the most physically gifted quarterback in this class. At the combine he recorded a 4.36-second 40-yard dash, paired with a 43.5-inch vertical. He has an athletic frame at 6-foot-6 and 227 pounds that most teams would manufacture if they could. His athleticism score was the best among all quarterbacks at the combine, and that number does not lie.

The question surrounding him is whether he can translate that physical profile into a reliable quarterback at the NFL level. His accuracy and decision-making at Arkansas were inconsistent. His elongated release creates timing issues that become more pronounced the faster pass rushers arrive. He has experience reading full-field progressions, which separates him from some of the more system-dependent prospects in this class. The efficiency and accuracy questions are real, but those are things you can develop. The athleticism is already there.

The Washington Commanders have been mentioned as a potential fit, given the dual-threat infrastructure already built around Jayden Daniels. Green as a developmental QB3 in that system makes conceptual sense. At 23% on Kalshi, the market is not dismissing that path.

Cole Payton, North Dakota State: 15%

The 15% is interesting. Payton does not have the name recognition of Nussmeier or the physical spectacle of Green, but North Dakota State quarterbacks have a longer track record of NFL viability than most college programs twice their size. Payton checks the boxes teams actually care about at the position: size, clean release, and structured preparation. Most boards have him as a Day 2 pick. That round range puts him directly in the third quarterback window if the board breaks a certain way.

The market at 15% reflects both real upside and real uncertainty. Small-school quarterbacks face evaluation questions that college program brand recognition does not always resolve quickly. The combine gave evaluators a chance to see him against the full class, and his standing as a legitimate Day 2 prospect has held through that process.

What the Market Says

Nussmeier's 56% leading share in a market this separated is worth noting. That number is not entirely overwhelming. The combined implied probability of the other candidates exceeds the leader, which tells you the market is treating this as an open race. Beck's 26% in particular reflects a real belief that his experience and operational profile will appeal to a team picking earlier than the draft boards suggest.

This is also a class where the third quarterback could come off the board anywhere from the second round to the fourth. The timing of that pick will depend entirely on which teams enter the draft still needing developmental depth at the position, and that board is not fully formed yet. Kalshi's contract resolves when the third quarterback is selected, regardless of round, and right now more than four in ten contracts are priced against Nussmeier being that player.

The 2026 NFL Draft begins on April 23 in Pittsburgh. The third quarterback question gets answered soon.

Accuracy note: Market data referenced reflects Kalshi contract prices as of April 10, 2026. Prices shift continuously. Verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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