David Bailey & Francis Mauigoa Current Favorites to be Selected No. 3 in the 2026 NFL Draft by Kalshi Markets

The 2026 NFL Draft is just a few weeks away, starting on April 23rd in Pittsburgh. It has been a general consensus for quite some time now that Fernando Mendoza will go first overall to the Las Vegas Raiders, but the third overall pick still remains up in the air. With $234,448 already traded in total volume on Kalshi's market for the No. 3 overall pick, we have already seen significant shifts in recent days. Edge David Bailey is leading the field currently, although only slightly, and OT Francis Mauigoa is just a few points behind him with a cluster of talent below them.

Here is what the market is pricing in, and what the Cardinals' situation tells us about where it might be headed.

2026 Draft No. 3 Overall Pick Probabilities According to Kalshi

2026 No. 3 Overall Draft Pick Odds Per Kalshi — Kalshi

The Arizona Cardinals at No. 3

Arizona finished last season at 3-14, and subsequently fired head coach Jonathan Gannon and released QB Kyler Murray. Murray then moved on to sign with the Vikings, leaving the Cardinals with Jacoby Brissett as their QB for the foreseeable future. They also signed Gardner Minshew as a depth piece behind Brissett and hired Mike LaFleur as their new head coach. They added many other pieces on offense, defense, and special teams. It has been an incredibly busy offseason for this team as they look to reset after a difficult 2025 season. This new look Arizona team will have an opportunity to draft an elite prospect at No. 3 overall.

With this year's draft widely considered to be a weaker year for quarterbacks, outside of Fernando Mendoza at No. 1 overall, this spot in the draft will give Arizona plenty of options to determine what their biggest need is, and who fits that need the best on the board. They will have their pick of pass rushers, which analysts have said is their biggest need. However, coming off a 3 win season, the truth is most positional groups could use strengthening and the top prospect at almost every position will be available. That is what makes this market so unpredictable.

David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech - 25%

Bailey is the market leader currently, and his prospect profile fits clearly into Arizona's current needs. Last year at Texas Tech he recorded 14.5 sacks which led the Big 12, earned a unanimous All-American selection, and Big 12 Defensive Lineman of the Year honors. He also has a 93.8 pass rush grade from Pro Football Focus, the highest of any edge in the FBS.

At 6 '4'' and 251 pounds, Bailey can prove to be versatile on defense and win with his quick first step, or hand fighting at the line. Having a young talent like Bailey playing alongside a veteran presence like Josh Sweat would allow him to learn from a successful pro, and give their defense a chance to attack from opposite sides on the line. His production and athleticism make him a good fit for this Cardinals team.

Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami - 23%

Mauigoa is the unanimous top offensive tackle in this class. He is the highest graded OT and projected to be a good starter within two years. His fit with the Cardinals makes sense, wanting to protect an aging Brissett at QB, and have a solid tackle ready for when they find their long term solution at the QB position. We have already seen Arizona invest in this position with their free agent acquisition of Isaac Seumalo, which could be seen as an argument either for or against drafting Mauigoa.

His rising contract price shows that the market believes he has a real possibility to go to Arizona early, but the field has not fully committed to either position quite yet. We still have a little less than 3 weeks to go and you can expect to hear a lot about Mauigoa, it is clear wherever he lands he has a real chance to be a meaningful starter.

Francis Mauigoa Blocking an Ohio State Player — Dec 31, 2025; Arlington, TX, USA; Miami Hurricanes offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa (61) blocks the rush during the 2025 Cotton Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame - 12%

Love, like many of the other names on this list, is the consensus top pick in this draft at his position. However, the positional need for the Cardinals just is not the strongest fit at No. 3 overall in the draft. Arizona currently has a crowded running back room consisting of James Conner and their recent free agent pickup, Tyler Allgeier, and Trey Benson. That is not to say this couldn’t happen, but it would take the Cardinals ignoring their biggest needs, which doesn't seem to happen this early in the draft all too often. But at a 12% chance, that door is not closed and offers some great value for a player who might just be the best athlete in this entire draft.

Arvell Reese, Edge, Ohio State - 11%

The edge defender out of Ohio State enters this draft as the highest rated player in this class, per NFL’s graded prospect board. He is considered to be a pro bowl talent fresh out of college. He projects as an incredible talent, but his only knock is that he is up against David Bailey whose numbers from last year cast a huge shadow. His market is being cut down massively by competing with another top talent at the same position.

The argument for Reese to go No. 3 overall is the same as Bailey, they both fit the needs of the Cardinals very well. They are also both plug and play type guys, so it boils down to who the Cardinals believe in more right now. The guy who put up video game numbers last year? Or the guy who projects higher right away out of the draft? It seems like they can't go wrong no matter which they choose, but the 15 point gap in their markets shows that the public is leaning one direction more than the other.

Other Names to Look At

Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami - 8%

Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State - 6%

Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia - 4%

Spencer Fano, OT, Utah, - 4%

The Bottom Line

Bailey currently leads the field at 25%, and the Arizona pass rush could use a force like him on defense. But the market movement makes this a complicated picture as we get closer to the draft. Bailey has declined, while Mauigoa has climbed. They have been swapping the top position all month long and we can expect more of the same over the next 3 weeks until we hear a name called at that podium.

The deeper story here is Arizona itself, with a franchise looking to rebuild under their new head coach, currently without a franchise QB under center, and multiple positions that could use an elite young talent. It will be interesting to see which route their front office decides to go, but it seems clear that whoever they decide to go with should have an opportunity to be a difference maker for this team right away.

Bailey leads. Mauigoa is closing. And somewhere in Glendale, a front office with a lot of questions and one very valuable pick is working toward an answer the rest of us are still waiting on.

Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of Friday, April 3, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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