Who Wins NFL Comeback Player of the Year?

Kyler Murray is the name at the top of this market, but three legitimate challengers say this award is nowhere near settled.

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Comeback Player of the Year voting has always been part performance, and part story. The voters who decide this award are looking for a player who went through something difficult and came out the other side and played good football. That combination matters, and the Kalshi market on this award reflects just how many players fit that description heading into 2026.

Kyler Murray | 50% Chance

The ACL tear in late 2022 was serious, the kind of injury that takes a quarterback more than a full year to stop thinking about. Murray came back, got through the early awkwardness, and by 2025 was playing at a level that reminded people what he looked like before it happened. 

Unfortunately, last year in week 5 he suffered a season ending foot injury. After sitting out the rest of the season, Murray finds himself with a change of scenery in Minnesota. He has new weapons and a new home to try and revive his career.

The market gives him 50%. The remaining half is split across a field that includes some genuinely strong cases.

Patrick Mahomes | 37% Chance

Kansas City went 6-11 in 2025 and missed the playoffs for the first time in 11 years. For a team accustomed to January football, that was a different kind of season. Mahomes had stretches where the sharpness was not there, the timing was off, and the offense looked like it was searching for answers. 

A rough season capped off with an ACL and LCL tear late in the year. A full return to form in 2026, the kind of dominant season the league saw from him in past seasons, would generate serious award conversation. At 37%, the market is treating that scenario as probable, but the question of his timeline for return is what complicates this number.

Dec 14, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass during the second half against the Los Angeles Chargers at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Micah Parsons | 35% Chance

Parsons tore his ACL late in the 2025 season, and is projected to be back for most of the upcoming season. Parsons is a true game changer. Green Bays defense is anchored by him. He is a pass rusher who changes what offenses are willing to do before the ball is even snapped. 

Get him back to full health in 2026 and the production follows. At 35%, he is essentially in a dead heat with Mahomes for second place in this market. A strong return from his injury could change this number quickly.

Malik Nabers | 17% Chance

Nabers tore his ACL last season, which is the whole story here. He was developing into one of the more promising young receivers in the league before the injury cut his year short, and now he returns to a Giants offense that needs him badly. 

The comeback angle is clean. Young player, serious injury, returning to a team where he is the clear focal point of the passing game. If the knee holds up and he plays a full season at the level he was trending toward, the counting stats will be there. 

The market gives him 17%, which is realistic for a player coming off that kind of injury, but the upside case is real.

Sep 21, 2025; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers (1) looks on before the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

George Kittle | 16% Chance

Kittle tore his ACL in the wild card game in January and has been targeting a week one return ever since. For most players, that timeline would be aggressive. For Kittle, who has built a reputation on playing through things that would sideline others, the market is taking it seriously. 

San Francisco's offense at full strength with Kittle healthy and running routes is a different animal than what they put on the field without him. A full season of production in 2026, coming off a playoff injury that ended his year in January, is exactly the kind of comeback arc this award was designed for. 

The 16% share reflects the uncertainty around the knee, not any doubt about what Kittle looks like when he is healthy.

The Market Read

Murray leads the NFL Comeback Player of the Year market for real reasons. His injury was significant, his return has been sustained, and the voters who decide this award tend to reward exactly that kind of arc.

But Mahomes at 37% and Parsons at 35% are not afterthoughts. Those numbers say the market sees multiple credible outcomes, and the gap between first and second place here is small enough that a slow start from Murray or a dominant one from either of those two changes the picture quickly.

A 50% market lead sounds comfortable until you realize the other half is split between Patrick Mahomes and one of the most disruptive defenders in the game.

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Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of May 12, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.