Time to get going again for Arizona football

Arizona hits to the road to face Stanford in what feels like a must-win game for both schools

Following back-to-back blowout losses to Washington and USC, the Wildcats need to figure out a way to win football games fast. I mean real fast. If you trust the analysts and prognosticators, nearly everyone has accurately predicted how Arizona’s season should have played out thus far.

Aside from the poor showing at Hawaii, the Wildcats have pretty much followed preseason predictions, winning four times before the schedule would begin to show its teeth. A four-game win streak against the likes of North Arizona, Texas Tech, UCLA, and Colorado was necessary. The setbacks to Washington and USC were not surprising, outside of the final outcomes that saw the Wildcats get outscored by the Huskies and Trojans by a combined total of 92-41.

Entering Saturday’s road game at Stanford, most considered this a winnable game for Arizona. So far, the odds makers agree as the smartest people on earth show the line currently set at even.

Statistically, Arizona (4-3, 2-2 Pac-12) is better in every offensive category than Stanford. Defensively, the Cardinal (3-4, 2-3 Pac-12) is better in every category when compared to the Wildcats. Something has to give, and always does.

Stanford, which has been battered by injuries this season, wants to slow the game down, control the clock, beat up the Wildcat defense, frustrate the Arizona offense, and cause havoc on special teams.

Arizona, on the other hand, wants to speed the game up, find rhythm on offense, force turnovers on defense, and figure out a way to execute on special teams.

Worrisome for the Wildcats is a matchup between two distinctively different teams, from personnel to overall philosophy, all but guarantees an outcome decided by what happens on special teams. If true, Arizona could be in trouble as they have simply failed, time and again, to execute a basic punt return.

Against a team like Stanford that should struggle somewhat against Arizona’s defense, despite the Wildcats allowing an average of 34 points per game, field position must be valued. This season, Arizona is displaying outright disrespect for field position. Granted, the Wildcats do have an explosive offense when Khalil Tate is comfortable and making the right decisions, but the last two seasons have exposed plenty of weaknesses in Arizona’s offense when things are not clicking for the offensive line, which directly impacts whether Tate and the playmakers are clicking.

Stanford’s defense will undoubtedly crowd the line of scrimmage, try and take away the edges, and deny the short pass routes, forcing Tate to make passing decisions down the field and under pressure. Washington and USC each used this recipe for success and came away looking like Bobby Flay and Gordon Ramsey, respectively.

While Arizona has proven its worth in stringing together 85- and 90-yard scoring drives already this season, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to sustain enough extended drives to beat a very beatable Stanford on the road.

A key statistic to watch on Saturday will be how well the Cardinal convert on third downs. Stanford is only converting 39% of their third down tries this season. If the Wildcats defense can hold the Cardinal offense t their season average, particularly when defending in Stanford territory, there’s a chance Arizona can establish solid field position, shorten the field of play, and put all the pressure back on its opponent.

Naturally, this requires sound play by the punt return team. Notably, the Wildcat punt returns who have been plagued by poor decisions and slippery hands covered in coconut oil.

While pre-game final score predictions will come in all forms in the days ahead, I see a low scoring affair decided by field goals, turnovers, field position, penalties, and good old fashioned execution in all the little things generally taken for granted. I’d love to think I know enough to predict a Wildcat victory, but discipline and execution have been strangers to the Wildcats in their last two outings. If they return in time for Saturday’s 12:30 p.m. kickoff, Arizona will return home with another notch on their belt. If they don’t, an equally struggling Stanford team will walk away the victor.