Arizona-Michigan Clash Hinges on This One Key

Arizona and Michigan’s Final Four matchup will likely be decided by this one facet of the game.

Mar 28, 2026; San Jose, CA, USA; Arizona Wildcats forward Ivan Kharchenkov (8) celebrates after an Elite Eight game against the Purdue Boilermakers of the West Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at SAP Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Everyone keeps talking about three-point shooting when it comes to this matchup between the Arizona Wildcats and the Michigan Wolverines, but that’s the wrong focus. 

Yes, Michigan shoots more threes, but Arizona doesn’t need threes to win games. It has proven that all tournament long.

Mar 28, 2026; San Jose, CA, USA; Purdue Boilermakers guard Fletcher Loyer (2) drives to the basket defended by Arizona Wildcats forward Tobe Awaka (30) and guard Brayden Burries (5) in the second half during an Elite Eight game of the West Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at SAP Center. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images | Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Arizona has scored over 90 points multiple times while making only a few threes. That tells you everything you need to know about how it plays. It wants points in the paint, offensive rebounds, and free throws. That’s its identity, and it shouldn’t change it now.

Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) reacts to a call from the referee during a NCAA Tournament game against the Arizona Wildcats on Saturday, March 28, 2026 at SAP Center in San Jose, Calif. Purdue fell to Arizona 79-64. | Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Arizona Has the Size To Match Michigan

The reason this game is so interesting is that most teams can’t match Michigan’s size. But Arizona actually can. Arizona isn’t going to be intimidated inside like other teams have been all season.

That changes everything for Michigan. The Wolverines can’t just rely on being bigger and more physical because Arizona is just as big and just as physical. That means this game is going to come down to execution, not size.

Arizona Wildcats guard Brayden Burries (5) defends Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) as he loses control of the ball during a NCAA Tournament game Saturday, March 28, 2026 at SAP Center in San Jose, Calif. Purdue fell to Arizona 79-64. | Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Offensive Rebounding Could Decide Everything

One thing that hasn’t been talked about enough is offensive rebounding. Arizona is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, and that could be a huge problem for Michigan.

Offensive rebounds do two things. First, they give you second chance points. Second, they stop the other team from running in transition. Michigan is really dangerous when it gets fast-break points, so if Arizona crashes the glass, it can slow the game down and force Michigan to play in the half-court.

Mar 28, 2026; San Jose, CA, USA; Arizona Wildcats guard Jaden Bradley (0) shoots the ball against the Purdue Boilermakers in the first half during an Elite Eight game of the West Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at SAP Center. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images | Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

That’s exactly the type of game Arizona wants.

Apr 2, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd during a press conference ahead of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images | Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Depth Might Be Arizona’s Biggest Advantage

Another big factor in this game is depth. Arizona can go eight or nine players deep, and it doesn't really lose much when they go to the bench. Over the course of a full game, that really matters.

Michigan’s starters are really good, but Arizona can wear teams down. By the last ten minutes of the game, that depth and physical style usually start to show. Arizona starts getting more rebounds, more free throws, and easier baskets.

Mar 28, 2026; San Jose, CA, USA; Arizona Wildcats guard Anthony Dell'orso (3) celebrates in the second half against the Purdue Boilermakers during an Elite Eight game of the West Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at SAP Center. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images | Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

This game likely comes down to whether Arizona can control the paint and win the rebounding battle. If it does that, it doesn’t need to make a bunch of threes to win.

If Arizona plays its style, rebounds, and scores in the paint, it has a very good chance of beating Michigan and playing for a National Championship.