College Football Betting: Stanford at Arizona State
After last week's 42-23 victory over UCLA, the Arizona State Sun Devils proved a whole lot of people wrong, including us here at AllSunDevils. We struck out in both wagers offered to people, as UCLA (-3) neither covered nor did the O/U of 54.5 stay under, effectively moving us to 0-2 for the week and 4-4 for the season.
After changing some thought processes, analytics and an overall different approach to the game, we're here to reestablish ourselves as the top dog in the Sun Devils betting market.
Let's see how we can make some money in Week 6 when Stanford and Arizona State meet on Friday night:
How to bet: Spread
Spread (via SI Sportsbook): ASU (-13)
After going 0-3 against the spread (ATS), the Sun Devils have now covered the spread in their last two games, seemingly finding their stride as the season is now in full swing.
Notable: In all four of Arizona State's wins this season, the lowest margin of victory came last week in the 19-point victory over UCLA.
Stanford is 3-2 ATS, covering in three of its last four games. It's also notable to point out the Cardinal have covered both games where they've been underdogs by eight or more points in 2021, actually winning both contests against USC and Oregon.
The Cardinal are undoubtedly a tough out, and oddsmakers are riding high on the Sun Devils following their win at the Rose Bowl. Can the Sun Devils cover a nearly two-touchdown spread?
If they're able to cover against UCLA, one would believe Stanford should be another doable task, especially when playing at home.
It's no secret the Sun Devils love to run the football, and with the Cardinal allowing five yards per carry to ball-carriers this season, that appears to play well within the likes of ASU's strength. Stanford's dead-last run defense in the Pac-12 along with the Sun Devils averaging 200 yards per game on the ground doesn't bode well for the Cardinal.
Defensively, the Sun Devils could force Stanford to air the ball out sooner rather than later. The Cardinal rank 11th in the Pac-12 in rushing, while ranking just seventh in passing.
The Sun Devils are favored to win, but will they be good enough to cover?
What this game ultimately boils down to is the turnover battle. In each of Stanford's wins over ranked opponents, the Cardinal have won the turnover battle in each game.
It's not rocket science: Play turnover free, and win the game. Arizona State has only one turnover in the their last 120 minutes of play following the disastrous BYU game.
Time of possession should also play a key factor. In all of college football, the Sun Devils rank 51st in time of possession vs. FBS schools, while Stanford ranks 95th. Stanford can't score if it doesn't have the ball in its hands, especially if Arizona State can find continued success on the ground.
What we like: Arizona State's excellence running the ball combined with the ability to hit big plays downfield; Stanford's inability to stop the run.
What we don't like: Stanford's overall stubbornness to allow superior teams to capture big leads.
Final analysis: If Arizona State plays a clean game, there are multiple factors working in its favor to cover the spread. Thirteen points is a lot, make no mistake about it. However, eye-test plus stats indicate the Sun Devils should indeed cover on Friday night. Stanford won't go down without swinging, however.
Pick: ASU (-13)
How to bet: Over/Under
O/U: 51.5
After the under prevailed in Arizona State's first three matchups, the over has hit in ASU's previous two games. However, the under vs. UCLA was just a D.J. Taylor-botched punt (and UCLA field goal) away from hitting for a fourth time.
The Sun Devils can undoubtedly put up points, yet their pace of play (1.99 plays per minute) suggests what the eye-test confirms: Arizona State loves to chew clock and wear defenses out over the course of the game.
Stanford's offense is no better, as the Cardinal average just 2.02 plays per minute. Both schools rank 123 and 119 in those categories, respectively.
Stanford also averages just 57.02 plays per game (130th in the FBS), while Arizona State only averages 61 plays per game.
Translation: Slow football will be played, which isn't exactly telling us to take the over.
However, with a figure of 51.5, that total feels easily attainable, especially with the firepower Arizona State has showcased in its recent games.
Assuming you're looking for the over of 52, that's 26 points per team to cover. Stanford has scored at least 24 points in its last five games, and Arizona State has scored no less than 35 points since opening Pac-12 play.
Are scores of 32-20/39-13 possible if Arizona State grabs a good grip on this game? Certainly, especially with how Stanford has performed against fellow Pac-12 teams this season.
It will be close, but we all know it's no fun rooting for the under.
Pick: Over 51.5