College Football Betting: Arizona State Sun Devils at UCLA Bruins
Last week provided a 1-1 effort when predicting both the spread and over/under for Arizona State's 35-13 victory over the Colorado Buffaloes. It could have been a clean 2-0 had Colorado not decided to kick a field goal with under five minutes left in the game to bring the deficit to 22 points.
While the over/under of 45 was the second-lowest in all of college football's games over the past weekend, the over was bound to hit, although we're sure many were happy to get the backdoor points for the over.
We're now a combined 4-2 on the season when it comes to Arizona State's spread and over/unders this season, and with the Sun Devils packing their bags and heading out to the Rose Bowl for a big matchup with UCLA, we're looking to smell the roses in our picks for this week.
Betting the Spread
Currently, the UCLA Bruins are three-point favorites over ASU on SI Sportsbook. This will be the first time the Sun Devils aren't favored heading into a game during the 2021 season. The Sun Devils will try and leave Pasadena with a victory for the first time since 2015.
For the first time all season, Arizona State covered the spread (minus-14) in its win over Colorado last week, moving its record to 1-3 ATS (against the spread) for the year. Meanwhile, UCLA is a healthy 3-1 ATS heading into Saturday night.
The last time Arizona State went on the road to play a ranked team, results weren't optimal. A 27-17 loss to BYU featured 16 penalties and four turnovers from Arizona State, while the team simply looked unprepared to play in a hostile environment.
Meanwhile, UCLA's lone blemish on its record came in a home loss to Fresno State.
After sustaining a shoulder injury against Stanford, it appears UCLA's dual-threat quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson will have the green light on Saturday night, providing Arizona State with its toughest kryptonite yet: Containing mobile quarterbacks.
Both offenses operate very similarly, as Arizona State and UCLA feature run-heavy offenses with quarterbacks that are capable of making plays with their legs. Defensively, the Sun Devils appear to have the advantage in almost every major statistical category through four weeks of play.
What it boils down to: UCLA has the stronger resume', having been battled-tested against stronger teams in its schedule as opposed to Arizona State. With a three-point spread for UCLA at home, it's clear oddsmakers believe this game should be a close matchup.
The big question is: Can Arizona State get out of its own way? Penalties continue to plague the Sun Devils, making it harder to escape with a victory when playing both yourself and the opponents.
It's hard to trust the Sun Devils at the moment for a handful of reasons. With such a close spread, we'll take UCLA at home and hope Arizona State can prove us wrong.
Pick: UCLA (-3)
Betting the Over/Under
SI Sportsbook currently has the ASU/UCLA game at 55.5 points for the over/under. Arizona State has hit the under in three of four games, while UCLA is 50% from the field to this point.
Average scoring output per game:
Arizona State (32.5)-(Opponent) 13.5 = 46 points scored in average games
UCLA (38.5)-(Opponent) 25.25 = 63.75 points scored in average games
With a number of 56 needing to hit on the scoreboard for the over, that assumes both teams can score 28 points.
UCLA has yet to see a game where they've scored fewer than 35 points, whereas Arizona State's defense has not allowed more than 30 points. The Sun Devils also welcome back cornerback Chase Lucas following his absence in the Colorado game, tightening ASU's defensive backfield heading into the weekend.
Arizona State's preferred method of moving the chains? Running the ball, something UCLA specializes in stopping. The Bruins tout the Pac-12's top rushing defense, allowing a mere 64 yards per game.
With the addition of running back Chip Trayanum for Arizona State on Saturday night, will the Sun Devils be able to effectively move the ball on the ground?
With Arizona State boasting the conference's top defense and UCLA specializing in taking away ASU's main source of transportation, that doesn't bode well for the over.
It's tough to imagine both teams hitting 28 points, meaning one team will have to take or give points here. Are score-lines of 30-26, 35-21 or even 42-14 difficult to imagine?
This game doesn't scream "shootout" to us, given the states of both defensive units and sometimes shaky quarterback play for either UCLA or Arizona State.
We've been wrong about over/unders before, and this very well may be the case again. However, an over of 56 feels like a lot to ask out of both offenses considering the circumstances.
Pick: Under 55.5