College Football Betting: Colorado at Arizona State
It's been two weeks since AllSunDevils has (legally) been allowed to give betting advice towards the Arizona State Sun Devils. Through predicting the spread and over/under, we are 3-1 thus far. Not too shabby of a start, especially for a team that has proven to be as unpredictable as Arizona State.
This week, the Sun Devils host the Colorado Buffaloes in each team's first taste of Pac-12 football in 2021.
Although Arizona State is no longer ranked, plenty of eyes will still be on the Sun Devils as the team is still expected to make a push for a Pac-12 title game appearance.
Looking to make some cash off of the Sun Devils? Look no further, as AllSunDevils looks to make all the right calls for Arizona State-Colorado this weekend:
Betting the Spread
The Arizona State Sun Devils are 0-3 against the spread this year, failing to truly play a full 60-minute game in the opening rounds of the schedule. That includes spreads of -44.5, -34.5 and -4 for each contest.
The Sun Devils are averaging a negative 13-point difference from their spread averaged over the last three games, not exactly a sign of faith from the "good teams win, great teams cover" crowd.
On SI Sportsbook, the Sun Devils are 1-point favorites (-14) against a Colorado team that is not much better against the spread, failing to cover in two of their games (1-2 ATS overall).
Arizona State has been overvalued in all three of their games by oddsmakers, as the Sun Devils have had fairly generous spreads that were just never going to be covered to begin with.
However, even though the Sun Devils are again double-digit favorites, 14 points seems fairly low against a Colorado team that just doesn't look like they have everything figured out. The Buffaloes have scored no points in their last seven quarters played, setting a Pac-12 record for most consecutive possessions (20) without a score.
What does Arizona State thrive off? Rushing the football, and the Buffaloes currently rank in the bottom half of the Pac-12 in rushing yards allowed per game. The potential reemergence of running back Chip Trayanum in Arizona State's backfield only pushes us more towards taking the Sun Devils at home.
It's also not likely the Sun Devils are able to replicate their 16-penalty, four-turnover performance that somehow only saw ASU down by one possession deep into the fourth quarter.
The Buffaloes will be looking to right the ship in Sun Devil Stadium, and so will Arizona State. Yet, Colorado is currently experiencing quarterback issues, while 11 different offensive linemen played for the Buffaloes in their loss to Minnesota.
At the end of the day, the Sun Devils are the superior team when it comes to talent. Each of ASU's victories have come by 27 points , and we believe 14 points is a very attainable margin of victory for Arizona State on Saturday night.
Spread: Take Arizona State (-14)
Betting the Over/Under
With an over/under of 45 for Saturday night's game, Arizona State-Colorado has the second-lowest number to hit in Week 4 of betting college football on SI Sportsbook, trailing only Colorado State and Iowa with their over/under set at 44.
This is tricky, because if we've learned one thing: Sportsbooks typically know what they're doing. The low number obviously indicates their confidence levels in both offenses. However, this could also leave room for last-minute wagers to come in and drive the over/under figure up a few more points with people wanting the over to hit.
Arizona State has seen two of three games hit 45 points, with their sole contest that didn't (BYU) fall only one point short. Colorado has yet to hit 45 total points in any of their games this season.
Colorado average points scored per game: 14
Arizona State average points scored per game: 31.6
If you were to average the 45 figure, both teams would need to contribute at least 23 points for the over to hit. Of course, that number could sway in any direction, such as Arizona State winning 30-16 or 37-9.
We know the Sun Devils can put up points, especially playing at home. However, the fate of the over/under boils down to what Colorado can bring to the table on the offensive side of the ball.
We're more trustworthy of the Buffaloes defense as opposed to their offense. If Arizona State puts up 30, can Colorado hold their end of the bargain with 16? At this moment in time, recent trends say it's hard to trust the Buffs.
When it boils down to it, oddsmakers set the bar low expecting this to be one of the lowest-scoring games in the country. The over/under is truly a toss-up, so in these scenarios, it's best to read the tea leaves and side with the people who have serious dough (sportsbooks) and the most to lose in the game.
Over/Under: Take the Under (45)