ESPN's Football Power Index Predicts Second Half of Arizona State's Schedule
In part one of our series where we predict every Arizona State Sun Devils game by using ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index), ASU got off to quite the start. The Sun Devils began their quest for a Pac-12 title by starting the year out 5-1, yet roadblocks lie ahead for Arizona State.
Teams such as USC, Utah and Washington await, all considered top teams of the conference heading into 2021 along with ASU.
Can Arizona State maintain momentum? Will head coach Herm Edwards power the school through through all of the negative spotlight and attention that's hounded the program since the summer?
The computer says . . .
Week 7: BYE WEEK
Week 8: Arizona State at Utah
Win probability for ASU: 42%
Utah FPI Ranking: 30th (7.5)
Arizona State and Utah are neck and neck when it comes to FPI, as both programs sit next to each other in the power index's rankings (ASU is ranked 29th). This matchup essentially favors home-field advantage, and that's something the Sun Devils lack as they travel on the road.
Coming off a bye week, will ASU's extra preparation pay off? The FPI believes this could go either way, but it appears the Sun Devils aren't favorites to emerge victorious from a battle with the Utes.
Result: Sun Devils Lose
Record: 5-2
Week 9: Washington State at Arizona State
Win probability for ASU: 84.8%
Washington State FPI Ranking: 73rd (-1.8)
Arizona State returns home after a loss and are looking to rebound in a big way. That spells bad news if you're Washington State, a team that is projected to get absolutely steamrolled.
Just a day before Halloween, the Sun Devils return to their scary form with a nice victory against the Cougars.
Result: Sun Devils Win
Record: 6-2
Week 10: USC at Arizona State
Win probability for ASU: 52.7%
USC FPI Ranking: 21st (9.7)
In the biggest matchup to date, the Sun Devils host the Trojans for what many believe to be a game that could decide who represents the Pac-12 South in the conference championship.
In true toss-up fashion, this game is essentially a coin flip that looks in favor of the Sun Devils thanks to home-field advantage. ASU's 52% win probability makes this game the closest projected contest for the Sun Devils through the season.
No need for motivational speeches, just show the boys what's at stake and make Sparky do as many push-ups as possible.
Result: Sun Devils Win
Record: 7-2
Week 11: Arizona State at Washington
Win probability for ASU: 37.2%
Washington FPI Ranking: 25th (8.4)
Man, what a stretch of games the Sun Devils have in store. After a surely tough and enduring game with USC, ASU packs their bags for a road trip the following week to a Washington team ready to make some noise of their own.
Washington, already favored in FPI rankings, also have home-field advantage in the Week 11 matchup. Computers aren't fans of tough teams hosting the Sun Devils, and there's fair logic behind that. In terms of road tests, ASU certainly will have their work cut out thanks to a strong Huskies team.
Result: Sun Devils Lose
Record: 7-3
Week 12: Arizona State at Oregon State
Win probability for ASU: 71.6%
Oregon State FPI Ranking: 85th (-3.4)
Losing two games in a row is never acceptable under Edwards, and that's the case again as the Sun Devils finish their last road game of 2021 with a trip to Oregon State. The Beavers don't realistically pose a threat as the hosts, providing a nice opportunity for ASU to bounce back in a big way.
Result: Sun Devils Win
Record: 8-3
Week 13: Arizona at Arizona State
Win probability for ASU: 89.2%
Arizona FPI Ranking: 98th (-7.3)
It's a rivalry game, so throw out the record books and get ready for a tough game to finish both respective seasons ahead of bowl time.
Except, keep the page where the Sun Devils pounded the Wildcats 70-7 in Tucson last year. Arizona projects to be in the cellar of the Pac-12, and a trip to Sun Devil Stadium benefits absolutely nobody wearing red and white. Whatever the spread is, take the Sun Devils.
Result: Sun Devils Win
Record: 9-3
Second-Half Recap
There's no doubting the Sun Devils have a daunting final six games to finish 2021, but dropping two games in the back half of the schedule does feel just a tad disappointing, assuming that's not enough to get ASU to a conference title game appearance.
Games against the likes of USC, Washington and Utah will show the world what they're made of. However, a nine-win season would match most people's expectations for what they believed the Sun Devils could do in 2021.
Are they capable of making a push for a conference title? Absolutely, and that's what makes ASU dropping those games frustrating. However, these are merely predictions formulated by a computer.
And you know what they say: Football isn't played on paper.
Donnie Druin is a Deputy Editor with AllSunDevils. Follow Donnie on Twitter @DonnieDruin, and AllSunDevils @AllSunDevils. Like and follow AllSunDevils on Facebook, and for more ASU news visit https://www.si.com/college/arizonastate/