ASU Football: Fantasy Football Outlook- N’Keal Harry
After becoming the 26 Arizona State Sun Devil to be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, expectations were set for N'Keal Harry to establish himself as Tom Brady's go-to receiver outside of slot receiver Julian Edelman. After playing in only seven games his rookie season and Brady now playing in Tampa Bay, many questions surround the potential of Harry (and the rest of the skill position players) heading into 2020.
Harry's fantasy outlook shares the same sentiment.
How do you follow the departure of one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time? New England believes Cam Newton is up for the task. Reports out of Patriots training camp are Newton and Harry have developed a connection through their short time together. With Edelman still figuring to be the team's number one receiver, his usage may drop as a new gunslinger now commands the offense. Does Harry have what it takes to emerge as a legitimate pass-catcher/fantasy option this season?
ESPN's take on Harry:
"The Patriots drafted Harry in the first round of the 2019 draft, but an injury limited the Arizona State product to a 12-105-2 receiving line on only 23 targets in just seven regular-season games. Though he operated in a situational role, Harry actually paced the Patriots in targets during their final two games (including the wild-card loss to Tennessee). Harry is obviously a strong candidate for a great leap forward in his second season, especially with little competition for targets behind Julian Edelman. The big question mark here is quarterback play, as Cam Newton's health and Jarrett Stidham's ability are major unknowns. Harry is worth a bench spot because of his upside and pedigree, but he can't be considered a viable flex at the start of 2020."
Harry's upside indeed rests within the number of targets he'll receive, as New England's depth chart following Harry/Edelman isn't impressive as Mohamed Sanu is the most legitimate receiver following on the roster. Yet with an ADP (average draft position) of 169, Harry is barely being drafted, if at all.
"If there's someone who moved up my rankings when Cam Newton signed, it was Harry," said FantasyPros analyst Mike Tagliere. "I didn't like him much coming out of college as a wide receiver who didn't separate very well, but rather one who relied on winning contested catches. I knew he did that very well, but that didn't mesh well with the risk-averse Tom Brady. As for Newton, he's shown the willingness to target his wide receivers with little separation… He's a touchdown-dependent option, but one who won't see enough targets to be relevant if Julian Edelman is on the field. If Edelman misses time, Harry would receive a big boost. He's a bench stash WR5-type."
Given the unpredictability of New England's offense, Harry's upside is limited to just… precisely that. Upside. Harry, as it stands right now, is essentially a red-zone target. With low target rates through the seven games he played in 2019 and Newton possessing the ability to take the ball in the endzone himself near the goal-line, Harry may be a boom or bust player weekly depending on the matchup. However, Newton historically utilizes his big targets at the receiver position, as players such as Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess excelled in Carolina.
New England attempted 620 passes last season, ranking top-five in the league. It's unclear how much regression is expected number wise from those attempts, as head coach Bill Belichick will adjust his game plan accordingly. It's also difficult to imagine Edelman and running back James White combine for 248 (!) targets again in 2020, signaling more opportunity for Harry in his second season.
Being drafted in the final rounds of fantasy drafts, Harry's current ADP is warranted: He's worthy of taking, yet too much uncertainty remains to be confident to throw him in your lineup week one. I wouldn't label Harry a sleeper due to his limited upside, but Harry has a good chance to rebound off a subpar rookie campaign with a quarterback who's already building a rapport with him.