Pac-12 Scenarios: Who Can Clinch the North Division This Weekend?
We're nearly a week away from the Pac-12 championship game, and one spot is still up for grabs.
The Utah Utes officially punched their ticket to Las Vegas for the conference title game on Friday, Dec. 3 with a win over the Oregon Ducks last Saturday. While the Utes will enjoy their regular-season finale against Colorado this weekend after wrapping up the Pac-12 South, the North still remains wide open.
Oregon, Oregon State and Washington State are all in contention to face Utah with fairly simple avenues to get to Vegas.
Pac-12 North Scenarios
Oregon Ducks: Must Win to Secure Division
The Ducks had an opportunity to wrap up the Pac-12 North last week, needing either a win against Utah or an Oregon State loss to Arizona State to advance.
Long story short, neither happened, and the Ducks find themselves in must-win territory this weekend in their rivalry game with the Beavers.
It's simple: Win and you're in.
The College Football Playoffs are now a distant memory for Oregon, yet their chances of making the Pac-12 title game are fairly high. The Ducks are touchdown favorites over Oregon State on SI Sportsbook and ESPN's FPI has Oregon with a 73% chance to defeat the Beavers on Saturday.
Although the Ducks are favored in their game, Oregon would automatically be out of contention should the Beavers pull off the upset at Autzen Stadium.
A loss would open the door for either of the following teams:
Oregon State Beavers: Must Win and Have Washington State Lose
The chips have fallen in Oregon State's favor, gathering two wins in a row after dropping three of their previous four games.
The Beavers have now given themselves an opportunity to compete for the conference title, far from a reality a little more than two weeks ago when defensive coordinator Tim Tibesar was fired.
Oregon State has largely been up and down this season, defeating strong teams such as Utah while also dropping games to programs such as Cal.
Yet the Beavers are playing some of their best football at the moment, riding a wave of momentum into Eugene.
Oregon State's path to Las Vegas will require a win over Oregon and Washington State losing to Washington.
Possible? Absolutely. However, ESPN's FPI gives the Beavers only a 16.4% chance for Oregon State and Washington to win on Saturday, making it unlikely (in most computer simulations) for OSU to win the Pac-12 North.
The Beavers are out to prove football isn't played on paper.
Washington State Cougars: Must Win and Have Oregon State Win
Washington State has the smallest chance of advancing to the Pac-12 championship game, with just a 9.3% chance to make it to Las Vegas.
However, a lot of the public fancy the Cougars' chances to have the dominoes fall their way.
Washington State has turned the corner after firing their head coach and three other assistants earlier this season. Although the Cougars are a mere 2-2 in that stretch, they've played fairly strong football in each contest and rebounded nicely from their 1-3 start to begin the season.
Their first task will be defeating Washington in the Apple Cup on Friday. Washington is 4-7 is coming off three straight losses. However, the Huskies are playing at home and have won 10 straight against WSU.
Should the Cougars lose, that will create a winner-takes-all meeting between Oregon and Oregon State on Saturday.
With a variety of outcomes on the table and the Pac-12 being the perfect conference to enact chaos, this weekend should bring excitement down to the final whistle in determining who will rightfully claim the crown as Pac-12 North champions.